20230813-中泰期货-黑色产业链周报_等待旺季需求验证_191页_8mb

报告摘要

Current financial data shows subpar performance, with loan and credit contraction leading to excess money supply decline, indicating weak demand.
Economic stimulus policies are being implemented, but their effect on demand is delayed.
U.S. interest rate hikes pose risks to global economic stability, potentially affecting exports and overseas markets.

Steel现货 and futures prices edged lower, reflecting weak demand in the off-season.
Iron ore supply and demand remain tight due to safety inspections.
Overall black chain prices may rebound seasonally but face long-term downward risks.

Steel: Seasonal tail end, demand validation awaited; fundamentals weaken with high supply and low demand.
Iron Ore: Supply constrained by inspections; demand supported by high iron water but poised to fall with policy implementation; short-term震荡, long-term偏空.
**Silic 短期 support at 133, resistance at 136; medium-term 130-140震荡, long-term110.
Other Varieties: Weakness in manganese and silicon due to policy risks and high costs; coal demand muted, supply relaxed.

Short-term: Fade rebounds by selling on high levels; exploit roll yield on卷螺差 (e.g., sell roll spread).
Medium-term: Overall偏空 positioning; sell on overshot levels.
Cross-hedging and套利 opportunities: Monitor双硅价差 c 风险: Emission policies, demand slowdown, economic uncertainty.

Domestic demand may not support大幅反弹 due to structural weaknesses.
Overseas risks from U.S. economic slowdown and trade imbalances could impact exports.
Policy-driven supply controls may weaken demand if fully implemented.

展开完整摘要