20140926-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_11页_929kb

报告摘要

Regional Oil & Gas Summary

Core Content

This document provides an overview of the oil and gas market as of late September 2014, including price movements, key industry developments, and analyst ratings for companies across Asia and globally. It also includes a valuation comparison for oil and gas companies and oil service providers, highlighting their financial metrics and market performance.

Main Points and Key Information

Oil & Gas Price Movements

Brent Crude: Edged lower by 0.1% to USD97.00/BBL.
WTI Crude: Down 0.3% to USD92.53/BBL.
Dubai Fateh Spot: Increased by 0.1% to USD94.51/barrel.
China Daqing Spot: Slightly down by 0.0% to USD93.10/barrel.
Gold: Rose by 0.2% to USD1,220.26/Oz.
USD-CNY Exchange Rate: Remained stable at 6.14.
Dow Jones (DJI): Down 1.5% to 16,945.80.
S&P 500: Declined by 1.6% to 1,965.99.

News Headlines

China's Oil Demand: Reached a year-high of 9.74m barrels per day in August, despite bearish economic data and industrial slowdown.
Statoil Delaying Projects in Canada: Postponing the Corner thermal oil sands project in Northern Alberta for at least three years due to lack of pipeline space and rising inflation costs.
US Strikes IS Oil Refineries in Syria: Targeted facilities producing 300–500 barrels per day, with estimated daily revenue of $2 million.
Huiyuan's Investment in Sinopec: Deyuan Capital, a subsidiary of Huiyuan International, has been selected as one of 25 investors in Sinopec's marketing division.
PetroChina's Mixed Ownership Experiment: Testing mixed ownership in Xinjiang with the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corp.

Utilization Rates

Major Chinese Refineries: Utilization increased to 80.4%, with PetroChina restarting its Daqing refinery and Sinopec reopening its Changling refinery.

Analyst Reports

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding: Reiterated BUY with a target price of SGD1.38. The company is gaining market share and has the highest new orders YTD.
Sinopec: Maintained HOLD with a target price of HKD6.65. The company is working on stake dilution and plans for an IPO.
Working Visit to Oslo: Neutral rating, focusing on O&G, shipping, and telco industries. Positive outlook on FPSO and OSV space. Recommended BUY for Yinson Prod.
Sembcorp Marine: Maintained HOLD due to muted near-term order outlook, with a revised target price of SGD3.80.

Valuation Comparison (Asia)

Company	Ticker	KE Rating	Price	Target Price	Market Cap (USD)	90D T/O (USDm)	P/E (2014E)	P/E (2015E)	EV/EBITDA (2014E)	EV/EBITDA (2015E)	RoE (2014E)	P/B (2014E)	Yield (2014E)
PetroChina - H	857 HK	Buy	10.72	11.50	241.6	113.3	11.8	10.6	5.6	5.0	11.3	1.3	3.8
Sinopec - H	386 HK	Hold	7.17	6.65	104.4	94.5	9.6	9.1	5.1	4.8	11.7	1.1	4.2
CNOOC LTD	883 HK	Hold	14.46	14.44	83.3	117.0	9.5	8.9	3.9	3.5	15.1	1.4	3.8
ONGC	ONGC IN	NR	407.55	NR	57.0	44.6	10.9	9.4	4.9	4.3	17.8	1.8	2.9
Reliance Industries	RIL IN	NR	988.65	NR	52.3	56.5	12.2	10.9	8.3	7.2	12.2	1.4	1.1
Cairn India	CAIR IN	Buy	324.60	443.00	10.0	13.4	4.5	4.3	3.1	2.9	23.6	4.5	4.3
BPCL	BPCL IN	NR	638.95	NR	7.6	19.6	15.3	13.6	7.8	7.3	15.3	2.2	2.2
HPCL	HPCL IN	NR	473.10	NR	2.6	15.9	11.3	8.9	7.2	6.5	9.5	1.1	2.7
Petronas Gas	PTG MK	Hold	22.92	23.50	14.0	8.6	27.2	26.2	15.4	14.8	16.4	4.2	2.6
PTT Global Chemical PCL	PTTGC TB	Buy	61.50	87.00	8.6	22.0	8.9	8.2	6.6	6.1	12.7	1.1	5.0
Thai Oil PCL	TOP TB	Sell	52.50	65.00	3.3	4.6	12.9	11.1	8.0	7.1	9.2	1.1	3.7

Valuation Comparison (Asia - Oil & Gas Services)

Company	Ticker	KE Rating	Price	Target Price	Market Cap (USD)	90D T/O (USDm)	P/E (2014E)	P/E (2015E)	EV/EBITDA (2014E)	EV/EBITDA (2015E)	RoE (2014E)	P/B (2014E)	Yield (2014E)
COSL	2883 HK	NR	21.45	NR	14.5	22.8	9.8	9.1	8.1	7.5	19.2	1.7	2.9
Anton Oil	3337 HK	NR	3.08	NR	0.9	7.9	20.4	14.1	9.4	8.0	10.9	2.2	1.5
SPT Energy	1251 HK	NR	3.55	NR	0.7	4.1	12.9	9.2	7.4	5.7	17.4	2.1	1.9
Hilong	1623 HK	NR	3.73	NR	0.8	3.4	11.2	9.3	8.4	6.7	15.6	1.6	2.6
Honghua	196 HK	NR	1.90	NR	0.8	2.8	8.0	6.9	7.2	6.3	12.0	0.9	3.4
Petro King	2178 HK	NR	2.37	NR	0.3	0.9	14.6	12.2	10.3	8.5	7.5	1.1	1.8
Jutal Offshore	3303 HK	NR	2.90	NR	0.3	2.7	23.0	17.4	14.2	10.6	7.1	1.5	1.1
Shengli Pipe	1080 HK	NR	0.50	NR	0.2	0.6	n.a.	38.1	20.2	10.9	-1.0	0.5	n.a.
Chu Kong Pipe	1938 HK	NR	2.77	NR	0.4	0.4	44.0	17.9	25.7	17.6	2.7	0.6	0.1

Key Analysts and Contact Information

Howard Wong - HK/CHINA
Jigar Shah - INDIA
Pandu Anugrah - INDONESIA
Liaw Thong Jung - MALAYSIA
Bianca Solema & Laura Dy-Liacco - PHILIPPINES
Yeast Chee Keong - SINGAPORE
Sutthichai Kumworachai - THAILAND
Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen & Truong Quang Binh - VIETNAM

Market Trends

The Asian oil and gas market is showing mixed performance with varying valuations and ratings.
There is a notable focus on market consolidation and strategic investments in the oil and gas sector.
The utilization rates of major Chinese refineries are rising, indicating improved operational efficiency.
The geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to influence oil prices and market dynamics.

Valuation Averages

Asian Oil & Gas Market Cap-Weighted Average: P/E 11.7, EV/EBITDA 10.7, RoE 9.9, Yield 12.4.
Asian E&P Market Cap-Weighted Average: P/E 11.7, EV/EBITDA 11.3, RoE 15.9, Yield 12.4.
Global Oil Major Market Cap-Weighted Average: P/E 11.0, EV/EBITDA 10.4, RoE 13.1, Yield 1.4.

This summary captures the essential market insights, price changes, company-specific news, and valuation data relevant to the oil and gas sector in the region as of late September 2014.

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