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报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary - 26 September 2014
Core Content
The document provides an overview of the regional oil and gas market, including price movements, news headlines, and analyst reports for various companies in Asia and other regions. It highlights the performance of key oil and gas prices, recent developments in the industry, and investment outlooks.
Key Market Movements
- Brent Crude: Edged lower by 0.1% to USD97.00/BBL.
- Gold: Rebounded from an 8-month low, up 0.2% to USD1,220.26/Oz.
- LNG Northeast Asia CFR: ICAP's JKM 1-month forward price, with a slight decline of 0.05 to USD15.75/MMBtu.
- Major Chinese Refineries Utilization: Increased to 80.4% in September 2014, up 0.7% from two weeks prior.
- USD-CNY: Stable at 6.14, with a slight decrease of 0.1% over the past week and 0.3% over the past month.
News Headlines
- China's Oil Demand: Reached a year high of 9.74m barrels per day in August, despite bearish economic data and industrial slowdown.
- Statoil Postponing Plans: Delayed its Corner thermal oil sands project in Canada due to lack of pipeline space and rising inflation costs.
- US Strikes IS Refineries: Conducted air strikes in Syria targeting Islamic State-controlled oil refineries, which produce 300-500 barrels of refined petroleum per day.
- Huiyuan's Investment: Deyuan Capital, a subsidiary of Huiyuan International, was selected as one of 25 investors in Sinopec's marketing division capital injection.
- PetroChina's Mixed Ownership: Testing mixed ownership in Xinjiang with the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corp.
Analyst Reports
- Yangzijiang Shipbuilding: Reiterate BUY with a target price of SGD1.38. It is gaining market share and has the highest new orders and largest order book in CGT.
- Sinopec: Maintain HOLD with a target price of HKD6.65. Expect downward revision of FY15E estimates due to stake dilution. Non-fuel division's potential is significant but long-term.
- Special Feature - Oslo Visit: NEUTRAL rating. Focus on O&G, shipping, and telco industries. Positive outlook on FPSO, drilling, and OSV space. Recommend BUY for Yinson Prod.
- Sembcorp Marine: Maintain HOLD with a revised target price of SGD3.80 due to bond issue and lower net cash.
Valuation Comparison (Asia)
| Company | Ticker | KE Rating | Price (23-Sep) | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USD b) | 90D T/O (USD m) | P/E (2014E) | P/E (2015E) | EV/EBITDA (2014E) | EV/EBITDA (2015E) | RoE % (2014E) | P/B (2014E) | Yield % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | buy | 10.72 | 11.50 | 241.6 | 113.3 | 11.8 | 10.6 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 11.3 | 1.3 | 3.8 |
| Sinopec - H | 386 HK | hold | 7.17 | 6.65 | 104.4 | 94.5 | 9.6 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 11.7 | 1.1 | 4.2 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | hold | 14.46 | 14.44 | 83.3 | 117.0 | 9.5 | 8.9 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 15.1 | 1.4 | 3.8 |
| ONGC | ONGC IN | NR | 407.55 | NR | 57.0 | 44.6 | 10.9 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 17.8 | 1.8 | 2.9 |
| Reliance Industries | RIL IN | NR | 988.65 | NR | 52.3 | 56.5 | 12.2 | 10.9 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 12.2 | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Cairn India | CAIR IN | buy | 324.60 | 443.00 | 10.0 | 13.4 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 23.6 | 4.5 | 4.3 |
| BPCL | BPCL IN | NR | 638.95 | NR | 7.6 | 19.6 | 15.3 | 13.6 | 7.8 | 7.3 | 15.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| HPCL | HPCL IN | NR | 473.10 | NR | 2.6 | 15.9 | 11.3 | 8.9 | 7.2 | 6.5 | 9.5 | 1.1 | 2.7 |
| Petron Corp | PCOR PM | buy | 11.68 | 16.80 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 14.6 | 7.5 | 10.4 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| Phoenix Petro | PNX PM | buy | 5.25 | 7.05 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 8.5 | 7.2 | 8.7 | 7.7 | 13.9 | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| Gas Malaysia | GMB MK | hold | 3.50 | 3.80 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 24.6 | 23.5 | 14.8 | 13.8 | 18.1 | 4.5 | 4.1 |
| Petronas Gas | PTG MK | hold | 22.92 | 23.50 | 14.0 | 8.6 | 27.2 | 26.2 | 15.4 | 14.8 | 16.4 | 4.2 | 2.6 |
| PTT Global Chemical PCL | PTTGC TB | buy | 61.50 | 87.00 | 8.6 | 22.0 | 8.9 | 8.2 | 6.6 | 6.1 | 12.7 | 1.1 | 5.0 |
| PTT PCL | PTT TB | buy | 350.00 | 395.00 | 30.9 | 15.4 | 9.8 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 6.5 | 13.7 | 1.3 | 2.7 |
| Thai Oil PCL | TOP TB | sell | 52.50 | 65.00 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 12.9 | 11.1 | 8.0 | 7.1 | 9.2 | 1.1 | 3.7 |
Key Insights
- China's Oil Demand: Surpassed expectations, indicating strong domestic consumption despite economic concerns.
- Sinopec's Strategy: Focused on stake disposal and potential IPO, with emphasis on the marketing division's profitability, which is heavily influenced by government policies.
- PetroChina's Mixed Ownership: Testing new models in Xinjiang, a strategic move for resource development.
- Global Market Trends: Reflects the challenges and opportunities in the oil and gas sector, including geopolitical tensions and economic shifts.
- Valuation Metrics: Highlight the relative performance of companies in terms of price-to-earnings, enterprise value-to-EBITDA, return on equity, and price-to-book ratios.
Conclusion
The regional oil and gas market shows mixed signals with Brent crude slightly declining and gold rebounding. China's oil demand remains robust, while international projects face delays and geopolitical challenges. Sinopec and PetroChina are navigating strategic changes and market dynamics, with Sinopec's focus on stake disposal and marketing division performance. Analysts provide mixed ratings, emphasizing both growth potential and current market uncertainties. Valuation data highlights the varying financial health and market positions of key players in the region.
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