20140404-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_11页_572kb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary - 04 Apr 2014
Core Content Overview
This document provides a summary of key oil and gas news and reports from April 3, 2014, focusing on developments in China, India, Japan, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, and includes a valuation comparison of Asian and global oil and gas companies.
Key News Highlights
- Sinopec is working with Goldman Sachs for the potential sale of a 30% stake in its marketing business, valued at up to USD30 billion.
- Sinopec has started construction on China's first liquefaction plant fed by shale gas in Fuling, Chongqing, with a processing capacity of 3.0 mcm/d.
- Shandong independent refiners had an average capacity utilisation rate of 31.1%, down from 32.9% the previous week.
- Inpex is on track to complete the central processing facility for the Ichthy LNG project in Darwin, Australia, with the entire project expected to be completed by end-2015.
- Marine Contracting has won a Jasmine FPSO contract from Petrofac, with work to begin in June 2014.
- Taiwan's CPDC anticipates a monthly decline in March revenue due to weak caprolactam (CPL) prices and reduced capacity utilisation at its Siaogang CPL plant.
Key Reports
- SapuraKencana Petroleum (SAKP MK): Maintains BUY rating with MYR5.30 target price. The company has secured 3 rig charter extensions and 1 new rig contract.
- NewOcean Energy (342 HK): Maintains BUY rating with HKD8.88 target price. The stock has pulled back 30% since its recent high, but long-term prospects are improving. 2015 earnings are revised up by 11%.
- Bumi Armada (BAD MK): Maintains BUY rating with MYR5.00 target price. The company has secured a bare-boat charter with Eni for an Angola FPSO project.
- Petron Corp (PCOR PM): Maintains BUY rating with PHP15.90 target price. The company's FY13 profit rose by 187%, but 4Q13 earnings declined by 39% YoY. 2015 commercial operations of RMP-2 are on track.
Oil & Gas Valuation Comparison
| Company | Ticker | KE Rating | Price (03-Apr) | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USDb) | 90D T/O (USDm) | P/E 2013 | P/E 2014E | EV/EBITDA 2013 | EV/EBITDA 2014E | RoE (%) | P/B (X) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | NR | 8.59 | NR | 221.0 | 95.4 | 9.6 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 5.1 | 11.8 | 1.1 | 4.7 |
| Sinopoe - H | 386 HK | NR | 6.95 | NR | 97.4 | 114.0 | 9.7 | 8.6 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 12.2 | 1.1 | 4.4 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | NR | 11.82 | NR | 68.0 | 120.0 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 17.3 | 1.2 | 4.8 |
| ONGC | ONGC IN | NR | 326.25 | NR | 46.4 | 18.2 | 11.5 | 10.6 | 6.3 | 4.8 | 16.8 | 1.8 | 2.9 |
| Reliance Industries | RIL IN | NR | 952.65 | NR | 51.2 | 53.0 | 13.4 | 13.2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 11.9 | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| Cairn India | CAIR IN | buy | 344.15 | 443.00 | 10.9 | 13.0 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 25.1 | 1.4 | 3.3 |
| BPCL | BPCL IN | NR | 439.60 | NR | 5.3 | 9.4 | 16.9 | 15.3 | 7.3 | 8.4 | 11.5 | 1.9 | 2.5 |
| HPCL | HPCL IN | NR | 300.55 | NR | 1.7 | 6.0 | 20.3 | 11.1 | 12.6 | 10.3 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 2.8 |
| Petron Corp | PCOR PM | buy | 12.32 | 15.90 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 22.8 | 30.8 | 10.0 | 10.2 | 6.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| Phoenix Petroleum Philippines | PNX PM | buy | 5.20 | 7.22 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 11.8 | 7.1 | 8.7 | 6.8 | 12.7 | 1.2 | 1.5 |
Analyst Contacts
- Howard Wong (HK/CHINA): (852) 22680648 | howardwong@kimeng.com.hk
- Liaw Thong Jung (MALAYSIA): (603) 2297 8688 | tjiaw@maybank-ib.com
- Jigar Shah (INDIA): (91) 226623 2601 | jigar@maybank-ke.co.in
- Yeast Chee Keong (SINGAPORE): (65) 6432 1460 | yeakcheeong@maybank-ke.com.sg
- Sutthichai Kumworachai (THAILAND): (66) 2658 6300 x 1400 | sutthichai.k@maybank-ke.co.th
- Pandu Anugrah (INDONESIA): (62) 21 2557 1137 | pandu.anugrah@maybank-ke.co.id
- Laura Dy-Liacco (PHILIPPINES): (63) 28498840 | laura_dyliacco@maybank-atrke.com
- Bianca Solema (PHILIPPINES): (63) 28498835 | bianca_solema@maybank-atrke.com
- Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen (VIETNAM): (84) 844555888×8082 | chuyen.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
- Truong Quang Binh (VIETNAM): (84) 4 44 555 888 × 8087 | binh.truong@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
Summary of Valuation Metrics
- Asia Oil & Gas average: P/E (2013) = 11.8, P/E (2014E) = 10.8, EV/EBITDA (2013) = 7.2, EV/EBITDA (2014E) = 6.2, RoE = 13.1, P/B = 1.4, Yield = 3.8
- Global Oil Major average: P/E (2013) = 13.4, EV/EBITDA (2013) = 10.5, RoE = 17.8, P/B = 1.8, Yield = 3.7
Key Market Trends
- The Asia Oil & Gas sector is showing mixed trends, with some companies experiencing revenue declines and others positive long-term outlooks.
- Sinopec is a major player in both stake sales and shale gas development.
- NewOcean Energy is undergoing transformation with a focus on Auto LNG.
- Bumi Armada has secured a significant contract with Eni for an FPSO in Angola.
- Petron Corp is expected to see positive growth in 2015 with the commercial operations of RMP-2.
Conclusion
The document highlights key developments in the oil and gas sector across various Asian countries, including stake sales, refinery operations, and LNG projects. It also provides valuation data and analyst ratings for several companies, indicating investment opportunities and market dynamics. The Asia Oil & Gas average shows mixed valuation metrics, suggesting diverse performance across the region.
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