20230504-浙商证券-华熙生物-688363.SH-华熙生物2023Q1季报点评报告_业绩短期承压_看好Q2功能性护肤边际改善_3页_779kb

报告摘要

Q1 2023 Revenue: 13.1 billion CNY, up 40% year-over-year (YoY).
Q1 2023 Net Profit: 2.0 billion CNY, up 4% YoY, but adjusted for non-recurring items like government subsidies contributing to the difference.
Non-recurring income: Around 49.49 million CNY, primarily from government support, with subsidies higher than in 2022 Q1 due to delayed payments.
Profitability: Gross margin decreased by 34 percentage points to 73.8%, net margin declined slightly by 0.4 percentage points to 15.4%. Operating expenses rose due to higher sales, management, and other fees, though R&D expenses decreased marginally.

Raw Materials: Steady growth expected, with double-digit revenue increase supported by post-pandemic recovery and strong global demand, including higher pharmaceutical-grade hyaluronic acid (HA) in medical applications.
Medical Aesthetics: Resuming growth after strategic adjustments in 2021, driven by low 2022 Q1 base, increased consumer demand, and improved product portfolio; expects double-digit revenue growth for the quarter.
Functional Skincare: Underperforming due to a weak overall beauty market; Q1 results showed negative growth in key channels like天猫, 抖音, and 京东.

Q2 Anticipations: Functional skincare expected to improve with new product launches (e.g.,修光棒, 黑金眼霜, 3A紫精华), while medical aesthetics and raw materials continue strong momentum.
Medical aesthetics focus: Key products like填充系列 and微交联系列 are poised for growth.
Raw materials: Maintain high-margin levels with increasing capacity at the Tianjin factory.

Forecasted Growth (2023-2025): Revenue projected at 828 billion, 1.056 trillion, and 1.314 trillion CNY, with CAGR of 302%, 275%, and 245% respectively; net profit similarly rising by high percentages.
Valuation: Current market cap supports PE of 37x (2023), 29x (2024), and 23x (2025), sustaining a 'Buy' recommendation with target prices based on these multiples.
Analyst Views: Maintained 'Buy' rating, highlighting potential for margin improvements and business diversification.

Competitor intensification could pressure margins and sales.
Promotional activities or product acceptance may lag expectations in functional skincare or medical aesthetics segments.
Overall, the market outlook suggests resilience but with conditional risks on execution and external factors.

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