2025年10月大宗商品市场展望报告_66页_1mb

Commodity Markets Outlook - October 24, 2025 - World Bank Group

Global commodity prices are expected to fall by approximately 7% in 2025, driven by factors including subdued global economic activity, elevated trade tensions, policy uncertainty, and ample oil supply. This decline is projected to continue with an additional 7% drop in 2026, marking the fourth consecutive year of decreases.

Energy prices are expected to decline significantly, contributing to global disinflation. Brent crude oil prices are forecasted to average around $68 per barrel in 2025, down from $81 in 2024, reflecting sluggish oil demand growth and surging supply. Natural gas prices also show varying projections based on regional benchmarks, with European and Japanese markets expected to see declines.

Agricultural prices are forecasted to edge down in 2026. Grain prices are projected to decline moderately in 2026, while beverage prices are expected to fall further. Food security remains a concern in some developing economies, but prices are projected to stabilize modestly through 2027 if trade tensions ease.

Metals and minerals prices are expected to remain relatively stable in 2026 and show moderate increases in 2027. Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, are expected to rise significantly due to continued investment demand.

Key downside risks include slower global economic growth, prolonged economic policy uncertainty, and potential further oversupply in the oil market. Upside risks involve intensifying geopolitical tensions, additional oil sanctions, supply disruptions from trade restrictions, and favorable weather conditions affecting crop yields.

The World Bank Group’s analysis indicates that historical international commodity agreements have had mixed success in managing price volatility. The most effective policies involve promoting diversification, fostering innovation, improving transparency, and relying on market-based pricing mechanisms. These approaches build lasting resilience against commodity price fluctuations.

Adopting these measures can offer more durable protection against volatility than direct attempts to control prices or manage markets through cartels. Temporary interventions may help stabilize prices during acute disruptions, but long-term price management schemes are often unsustainable. Economic policy uncertainty, supply chain disruptions, and shifts in energy use remain significant drivers of price volatility.