20250620-东吴期货-沥青周报_继续陪跑_15页_1mb

• Report Overview: This is a weekly analysis of asphalt期货 market, authored by analyst Xiao Yu, dated June 20, 2025. The focus is on market trends, inventory, supply-demand dynamics, and investment recommendations.

• Key Market Dynamics: The asphalt market showed oscillation and upward movement last week, primarily driven by crude oil costs. Despite relatively healthy inventory levels (factory and social inventories are at low, stable positions below seasonal averages), demand is expected to strengthen with the upcoming summer construction season. Supply decreased marginally due to reduced production and some refinery maintenance, keeping inventories low and providing modest support for pricing.

• Investment Outlook: The analyst recommends a cautious approach, especially short positions in asphalt. While fundamentals suggest marginal support, asphalt prices are disproportionately influenced by crude oil and have limited upside potential in the short term. It's viewed as a relatively stable oil product less affected by global events. However, short positions carry risks due to potential cost volatility.

• Risk Factors: The primary risks are fluctuations in crude oil prices and changes in inventory levels. Price disparities between regions, such as华东 and华南基差, indicate some resistance to sharp rises, suggesting regional market stability. Ongoing refinery maintenance could affect supply continuity, and demand trends from indicators like铺摊机销量 show variable absorption rates.

In summary, the report highlights a mixed picture with short-term support from low inventories and seasonal factors, but emphasizes dependency on crude oil for price movements, urging investors to monitor risks closely.