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Summary of June 23, 2024 Macroeconomic Weekly Report

The report covers recent economic trends, with a focus on supply-demand dynamics, commodity prices, real estate, transportation, and liquidity. Key findings indicate a mixed economic landscape, particularly with slowing fixation rates and subdued real estate demand.

• Supply and Demand: Overall repair speed has moderated. Infrastructure starts remain low, with indicators like petroleum asphalt and cement production at historical lows. Industrial production shows warming in sectors like chemicals, but real estate demand stays weak, with new housing sales at historical lows and slight rebounds in second-hand transactions.
• Commodity Prices: Markets exhibit volatility, with crude oil rising, base metals declining, and agricultural prices falling overall while pork prices recover. Domestic industrial goods prices are generally downward pressured, except for some chemical and construction materials where prices rise or fall diversely.
• Real Estate: New housing sales are persistently low, reflecting seasonal and yearly declines, while second-hand sales show mild improvement in 14 cities. Land transactions continue to decline sharply in recent weeks.
• Transportation: Ridership and freight logistics have cooled slightly, with domestic air travel growing modestly from 2023 levels, but logistics indices falling. Export shipping rates have improved, while domestic rates decline.
• Liquidity: Short-term interest rates are rising, and central bank activities involve net reverse repo operations, indicating a tightening stance. Repo volumes are robust but slightly decreasing.
• Risks: Potential for unexpected shifts in commodity prices and policy implementations.

This report suggests that while some areas show signs of stabilization or improvement, overall economic activity faces challenges, necessitating cautious monitoring.