20140801-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_11页_2mb

报告摘要

Regional Oil & Gas Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a summary of the oil and gas market trends and company-specific updates as of 31 July 2014. It includes market performance, news headlines, and analyst reports for various regions, including China, India, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, and others. Key focus areas include crude oil prices, refinery utilization rates, and investment activities.

Market Performance

S&P 500 and Dow Jones declined by 2.0% and 1.9%, respectively.
WTI fell by 2.1%, while Gold dropped by 1.1%.
Henry Hub rose by 1.5%.

News Headlines

US Oil Exports

The first US non-refined oil export cargo sailed for South Korea from Texas since the 1970s, indicating a shift in US oil export policy due to the shale oil boom.

India and Bangladesh

India surrendered its four-decade claim over sea territory in Bangladesh, potentially unlocking drilling opportunities.

Refinery Utilization

Shandong independent refiners operated at 38.7% utilization, a 0.2% decrease from the previous week and 10.7% decrease from the same period last year.
China Guangdong minor refineries ran at 5.9% utilization, down 2.5% from the previous week.

Investment and Operations

Blackstone Energy Partners invested USD800m in Malaysia-based Tamarind Energy.
LNGL raised USD36m for the purchase of Bear Head LNG assets in Canada.
CNOOC began production at Panyu 10 fields in the South China Sea, with current output at 9,000bpd and expected to reach 13,000bpd by 2015.

Analyst Reports

Ezion Holdings

Catalysts intact and bonus issue proposed.
Target Price (TP): SGD2.85.
1H14 PATMI increased by 40% YoY to USD90.5m.
Maintain BUY with TP raised to SGD2.85.

Cairn India

Production and reserves improving.
Target Price: INR400.
1Q recurring EPS of INR14.5 exceeded Street expectations.
FY15 EPS estimate cut by 10% due to depreciation policy change and higher exploration costs.
5.1x PER, 0.8x P/B, and 4% dividend yield support BUY rating.

Yinson Holdings

Sells Petroleum Nautipa for USD59m.
Expected MYR79m gain from the transaction.
Reiterate BUY with TP of MYR3.03 (19x FY1/16 PER target).

Keppel Corp

2Q14 results met expectations.
O&M operating margin rose by 0.3ppt to 14.5%.
Maintain HOLD with revised TP of SGD10.95.

Valuation Comparison (Asia Oil & Gas)

Company	Ticker	KE Rating	Price 31-Jul	Target Price	Mkt Cap USD b	900 T/O USD m	P/E 2014E	P/E 2015E	EV/EBITDA 2014E	EV/EBITDA 2015E	RoE %	P/B (X)	Yield %
PetroChina - H	857 HK	Buy	10.18	11.50	238.1	93.6	11.2	10.0	5.6	5.1	11.3	1.2	4.0
Sinopec - H	386 HK	Hold	7.70	6.85	102.5	73.7	10.3	9.8	5.1	4.7	11.7	1.2	3.9
CNOOC LTD	883 HK	Hold	13.88	14.34	80.0	84.4	9.1	8.5	3.8	3.5	15.1	1.3	3.9
ONGC	ONGC IN	NR	395.35	NR	55.9	51.4	10.4	9.3	4.8	4.3	18.0	1.8	3.0
Reliance Industries	RIL IN	NR	1,006.45	NR	53.7	72.5	12.4	11.1	8.5	7.3	12.2	1.4	1.0
Cairn India	CAIR IN	Buy	315.25	443.00	9.8	17.2	4.4	4.1	3.0	2.8	23.6	4.4	4.4
BPCL	BPCL IN	NR	580.15	NR	6.9	18.5	14.3	12.7	7.2	6.8	14.4	2.0	2.2
HPCL	HPCL IN	NR	399.30	NR	2.2	13.6	9.3	7.6	6.7	6.2	9.6	0.9	2.9

Valuation Comparison (Asia Oil Services)

Company	Ticker	KE Rating	Price 31-Jul	Target Price	Mkt Cap USD b	90D T/O USD m	P/E 2014E	P/E 2015E	EV/EBITDA 2014E	EV/EBITDA 2015E	RoE %	P/B (X)	Yield %
Anton Oilfield Services	3337 HK	NR	4.39	NR	1.3	8.3	18.6	14.6	10.3	8.5	16.5	3.0	1.6
China Oilfield Services-H	2883 HK	NR	19.54	NR	13.4	16.3	9.9	9.2	8.2	7.5	17.6	1.6	2.9
Chu Kong Petroleum	1938 HK	NR	2.77	NR	0.4	0.8	24.3	11.6	24.7	15.9	1.6	0.6	0.5
Hilong Holding	1623 HK	NR	4.38	NR	1.0	2.9	12.1	9.9	7.9	6.5	16.5	1.9	2.4
Honghua Group	196 HK	NR	1.90	NR	0.8	1.8	7.7	6.8	6.5	5.8	12.5	0.9	3.5
Sinopec Engineering-H	2386 HK	NR	8.88	NR	5.1	4.6	7.5	6.7	3.6	3.3	18.4	1.3	4.4
SPT Energy	1251 HK	NR	4.13	NR	0.8	3.5	14.6	10.4	8.2	6.2	18.0	2.4	1.7

Key Information Summary

Market Trends: The global oil and gas market experienced a decline in major indices and commodities like WTI and gold, but Henry Hub showed a slight increase.
India's Policy Shift: India relinquished its long-standing claim over Bangladesh's sea territory, possibly opening new opportunities for oil exploration.
Refinery Utilization: Refinery utilization rates in Shandong and Guangdong were low, indicating potential underutilization and market challenges.
Investment Activity: Blackstone invested in Malaysian start-ups, and LNGL raised funds for an LNG purchase.
CNOOC's Production: CNOOC initiated production at Panyu 10 fields, with projected growth in output.
Company Ratings: Multiple companies, including Ezion Holdings, Cairn India, and Yinson Holdings, received BUY ratings based on improved performance and future growth potential.
Valuation Metrics: The document includes P/E, EV/EBITDA, RoE, and P/B ratios for various Asian oil and gas firms, highlighting their financial health and market positioning.

Main Points

The US is increasing its non-refined oil exports, reflecting changes in energy policy and production capabilities.
India faces subsidy payments to marketing companies, with ONGC being the primary contributor.
Refinery utilization rates in China and India remain low, suggesting a need for operational improvements.
Investment activity in the region includes private equity and LNG development.
CNOOC and PetroChina are among the top companies with positive valuation metrics.
Analyst ratings emphasize growth potential, financial stability, and dividend yields as key factors in investment decisions.

Conclusion

The document outlines a mixed picture of the oil and gas market, with price declines in key commodities and indices, but also highlights positive developments in exports, production, and investment. Analysts maintain BUY ratings for several companies, citing improved production, reserves, and valuation metrics, while HOLD and Sell ratings are also noted for others. The refinery utilization data suggests challenges in the sector, but investment and policy changes may drive future growth.