2015年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Morocco_Second_Review_Under_the_Arrangement_Under_the_Precautionary_and_Liquidity_Line_48页_1mb

Summary of Morocco's Second Review under the Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL) Arrangement

Core Content

The IMF completed the Second Review under Morocco’s Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL) arrangement on July 24, 2015, and conducted an Ex Post Evaluation of the first PLL arrangement (2012-14). The review confirmed that Morocco continues to meet the PLL qualification criteria, with the economy showing positive developments despite external risks.

Main Views

• Economic Recovery: Morocco's economy showed signs of recovery in 2015, with growth expected to reach around 5%, up from 2.4% in 2014. This was driven by a strong agricultural output and gradual acceleration in non-agricultural sectors.
• Fiscal Performance: The fiscal deficit was on track to reach 4.3% of GDP in 2015, down from 1.6% in the initial projection. Subsidy spending was reduced significantly, and social programs in health and education were expanded.
• External Position: The current account deficit improved to 5.5% of GDP in 2014 from 9.5% in 2012. Reserves are now approaching six months of imports, and foreign exchange reserves have strengthened due to strong exports, lower oil prices, and FDI inflows.
• Financial Sector: The financial sector remains well capitalized and profitable, with the capital adequacy ratio above Basel III requirements. However, non-performing loans have increased slightly, but provisions are adequate.
• Inflation: Inflation has remained low, at around 1.5%, supported by moderate oil and food prices.
• Structural Reforms: Progress has been made on key structural reforms, including the new organic budget law, Basel III implementation, and pension reform. The pension reform is technically ready but has not yet been adopted.
• Exchange Rate Regime: The exchange rate regime is moving toward greater flexibility, with a revised peg structure based on the euro and dollar.

Key Information

• PLL Arrangement: The current 24-month PLL arrangement, approved in July 2014, provides insurance against external risks. It includes SDR 3.2351 billion (equivalent to 550% of quota) with 500% available in the first year and an additional 50% upon the completion of the second review.
• Program Status: The program remains on track, and Morocco continues to meet the PLL qualification criteria. The fiscal and external positions have improved significantly, and the financial sector remains stable.
• Outlook and Risks: While the economic outlook is favorable, it is subject to significant risks, including weaker growth in advanced economies, volatility in global financial conditions, and fluctuations in energy prices.
• Key Reforms:
  • Organic Budget Law (OBL) was adopted and implemented.
  • Subsidy reform has reduced fiscal and external risks.
  • Pension reform is expected to be implemented by early 2016.
  • Exchange rate and monetary regime are being restructured for greater flexibility.
• Institutional Framework: Morocco has a sound policy and institutional framework, with strong performance in financial sector soundness, monetary policy, and data adequacy. It is not substantially underperforming in fiscal policy and external position.
• Anti-Corruption and Government Effectiveness: Morocco performs within the 25-75 percentile range on anti-corruption and government effectiveness indicators, as per the World Bank.

Conclusion

The IMF Executive Board concluded that the second review of Morocco's PLL arrangement is completed, and the program remains on track. The authorities are committed to maintaining sound policies and sustaining reforms to ensure long-term fiscal and external stability. The fiscal and external positions have improved, and Morocco continues to qualify for the PLL arrangement.

Key Figures and Tables

• Fiscal Deficit: Reduced to 0.9% of GDP in Jan-May 2015 from 1.6% in projection.
• Current Account Deficit: Narrowed to 5.5% of GDP in 2014 from 9.5% in 2012.
• Reserves: Approaching six months of imports.
• Exchange Rate: Revised to 60% euro and 40% dollar.
• Inflation: 1.5% year-on-year in 2015.
• Subsidy Spending: Reduced by 58.9% from 2014 to 2015.
• Pension Reform: Technically ready, but not yet adopted.
• PLL Access: SDR 3.2351 billion (US$5 billion) in the second year, with 50% more available after the second review.

External Stress Index

• The external stress index indicates abated external pressures, but downside risks remain.
• Key Risks:
  • Weaker growth in key advanced economies (e.g., Euro area).
  • Increased volatility in energy prices.
  • Tighter or more volatile global financial conditions.
• Proxy Variables:
  • Euro Area Growth (50% weight).
  • Oil Price Changes (-40% weight).
  • Emerging Market Volatility (VXEEM) (-9% weight).

Institutional Indicators

• Financial Sector Soundness (FPC): Morocco is within the 25-75 percentile range.
• Anti-Corruption (MCP): Morocco is within the 25-75 percentile range.

Summary of the Review

• The economic performance is strong, with positive fiscal and external developments.
• Structural reforms are progressing, although pension reform is delayed.
• The external risks are substantial, but Morocco remains resilient.
• The program is on track, and the PLL arrangement continues to be treated as precautionary.

Final Recommendation

• The IMF staff recommends the completion of the second review under the current PLL arrangement.
• Morocco continues to qualify for the PLL due to sound economic fundamentals and effective policy implementation.