2014年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Morocco_Request_for_an_Arrangement_Under_the_Precautionary_and_Liquidity_Line_and_Cancellation_of_the_Current_Arrangement_74页_2mb

Summary of Morocco's Request for an Arrangement Under the Precautionary and Liquidity Line and Cancellation of the Current Arrangement

Core Content

Morocco requested a new two-year Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL) arrangement with a lower access (550 percent of quota) than the previous one, which had been 700 percent of quota. The request was made in the context of the end of the current PLL arrangement, which had provided insurance against external risks and supported the country's reform agenda. The new arrangement is intended to continue supporting the authorities' policies and provide further stability in the face of global uncertainties.

The staff report, prepared by the IMF for the Executive Board's consideration, concluded that Morocco continues to qualify for a PLL arrangement and recommended its approval. The proposed arrangement carries low risks to the Fund and would have minimal impact on the Fund's liquidity if the full amount were accessed. The authorities aim to exit the arrangement by the end of its term if external conditions allow.

Main Views and Key Information

Economic Challenges and Responses

• Morocco faced a series of exogenous shocks in recent years, including high oil prices, the European debt crisis, and the Arab Spring, which negatively impacted macroeconomic balances.
• Growth slowed in 2014, primarily due to a return to normal agricultural production after an exceptional 2013, and weak external demand.
• The outlook for growth is cautiously optimistic, with expectations of acceleration over the medium term due to structural reforms, improved global conditions, and the expansion of new industries.
• Inflation remained low, averaging around 1 percent in 2014, despite some increases in energy prices.
• Unemployment, particularly among the youth, remained high.

Fiscal Policy

• The fiscal deficit was reduced from 7.4 percent of GDP in 2012 to 5.5 percent in 2013, and is expected to narrow further to 4.9 percent in 2014.
• The authorities aim to achieve a fiscal deficit of 3 percent of GDP by 2017.
• Revenue is expected to remain broadly stable, while expenditure rationalization, especially in subsidies and the public payroll, will drive fiscal adjustment.
• The 2014 budget introduced measures to remove tax exemptions on large agricultural firms and reform the VAT regime to improve fairness and competitiveness.
• Subsidy reform has been a key focus, with significant progress made in reducing the subsidy bill and associated fiscal risks. The government plans to eliminate energy subsidies by mid-2015, except for butane.
• The new Organic Budget Law (OBL) is being prepared to strengthen the budgetary framework, introducing multiyear and program budgeting, performance management, and greater fiscal transparency.

Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies

• The Central Bank of Morocco (BAM) has maintained a policy rate of 3 percent since 2012 to manage inflation and support economic stability.
• The exchange rate regime is currently pegged, but the authorities are preparing for a transition to a more flexible regime and a new monetary anchor.
• The Fund is supporting BAM in strengthening its capacity to manage a more flexible exchange rate regime and improve forecast and policy analysis.

Financial Policies

• Financial policies focus on enhancing banking supervision and regulation, aligning with Basel III norms.
• Capital adequacy requirements were increased to 12 percent and core capital to 9 percent in 2013.
• BAM continues to monitor risks associated with the expansion of Moroccan banks in sub-Saharan Africa.
• A new banking law and draft Central Bank Statute are being finalized to strengthen BAM's regulatory and supervisory capabilities.

Structural Reforms

• The authorities are advancing structural reforms aimed at improving competitiveness, labor market conditions, and growth.
• A two-stage pension reform was launched in June 2014, with the first stage focusing on parametric adjustments to improve the actuarial situation of the main public pension fund (CMR).
• The second stage will involve a broader structural reform, including the merging of four pension funds into two (public and private).

External Risks and Outlook

• The outlook is improving but remains subject to significant downside risks, including slower growth in Europe, increased financial market volatility, and higher oil prices due to geopolitical tensions.
• The current account deficit is expected to decline further in 2014, below 7 percent of GDP, due to improved external demand and lower energy prices.
• Reserves are projected to increase by close to US$2 billion in 2014, ending the year around 4.5 months of imports or 91 percent of the Fund’s Assessing Reserves Adequacy (ARA) metric.
• Over the medium term, reserves are expected to gradually increase above 100 percent of the ARA metric.

Conclusion

• The staff report concludes that Morocco remains eligible for a PLL arrangement and that the proposed two-year successor arrangement would support the authorities' reform agenda and provide important insurance against external risks.
• The lower access reflects the improved economic position and a reduced balance of risks compared to the previous arrangement.
• The authorities have treated the current PLL as precautionary and did not draw on it despite a more challenging external environment.
• The new arrangement is intended to continue the fiscal and structural reforms that have been implemented and to provide stability in the face of global uncertainties.