2013年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Morocco_Second_Review_under_the_Precautionary_and_Liquidity_Line_45页_1mb

Morocco: Second Review Under the Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL)

Core Content Overview

This document outlines the Second Review Under the Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL) for Morocco, conducted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 2013. It includes the staff report, a statement by the Staff Representative, a press release, and other supporting documents. The review assesses Morocco's macroeconomic performance, fiscal and external developments, and the progress of structural reforms under the PLL program.

Key Information

• Program Objective: The PLL aims to provide insurance against external risks and support Morocco's efforts to rebuild fiscal and external buffers, while promoting higher and more inclusive growth.
• PLL Approval: The Board approved a 24-month PLL arrangement in August 2012, equivalent to SDR 4.1 billion (700% of quota, about US$6.2 billion).
• First Review: Completed on February 1, 2013, with no drawdown from the PLL, which the authorities continue to treat as precautionary.
• Fiscal Performance:
  • 2012 Fiscal Deficit: Widened to 7.6% of GDP, exceeding the initial target of 6.1% due to overruns in wages, subsidies, and capital transfers.
  • 2013 Fiscal Deficit Target: Revised to 5.5% of GDP, which was met by end-April 2013.
  • Fiscal Adjustment: The 2013 target includes a structural fiscal adjustment of about 1% of GDP.
• Economic Growth:
  • 2012 Growth: Slowed to 2.7% from 5.0% in 2011, due to poor harvests and weak external conditions.
  • 2013 Outlook: Growth is expected to rebound above 5%, with primary sector growth projected at 13% and nonprimary growth slowing to less than 4%.
• Inflation and Unemployment:
  • Core Inflation: Remained low but increased to 1.7% in 2013.
  • Overall Inflation: Rose to 2.8% by end-May 2013, partly due to fuel price increases.
  • Unemployment Rate: Remained around 9%, though youth unemployment rose to 18.6% in 2012.
• Current Account:
  • 2012 Deficit: Widened to 10% of GDP, driven by higher fuel and food imports and lower tourism and remittances.
  • 2013 Improvement: The deficit is expected to narrow, with trade balance improvements due to lower commodity prices and increased exports.
• Reserves:
  • Stabilized at about four months of imports since the fourth quarter of 2012.
  • Supported by strong capital inflows and FDI.

Main Views

• Fiscal Challenges: The 2012 fiscal slippage exposed weaknesses in budget monitoring and forecasting. The authorities responded with reforms to strengthen public financial management (PFM) and the budget framework.
• Structural Reforms: Progress on key reforms, such as subsidy and pension reforms, has been slower than expected, which poses a risk to the medium-term fiscal consolidation.
• Political and Social Tensions: The governing coalition faces internal tensions, particularly between the PJD and the Istiqlal Party, which could delay or hinder reform efforts.
• Liquidity Conditions: Despite some improvement in reserves, liquidity conditions remained tight in 2013, with credit growth slowing due to both supply and demand-side factors.
• Banking Sector: The sector remains sound, with Basel III compliance measures in place. Nonperforming loans (NPLs) stabilized at 5.4%, and BAM encouraged SME financing.

Key Reforms and Measures

• Subsidy Reform: A mechanism to index subsidized energy prices to international prices was introduced, a step toward comprehensive subsidy reform.
• PFM Modernization: The authorities are working on an Organic Budget Law (OBL) to formalize more complex reforms, including performance-based budgeting and greater transparency.
• Budget Monitoring: Steps were taken to make wage bill appropriations binding and to eliminate automatic carryover of unspent investment funds.
• Exchange Rate Flexibility: The possibility of allowing more flexibility in the exchange rate is considered to help stabilize reserves amid potential European financial stress.

Risks and Outlook

• Downside Risks:
  • Slower-than-needed reform pace.
  • Protracted European growth slowdown.
  • Higher oil prices or financial stress in Europe.
• Upside Risk:
  • Higher-than-expected agricultural output, which could provide fiscal and external benefits.
• IMF Staff Appraisal:
  • Morocco continues to qualify for the PLL.
  • The program is broadly on track, with progress made on fiscal and external targets.
  • The staff recommends completing the second review under the PLL.

Conclusion

The staff report concludes that Morocco is on course to meet its indicative targets for the second review under the PLL. While the fiscal and external positions have improved, the implementation of structural reforms remains a critical challenge. Political and social tensions, as well as external economic risks, continue to pose potential obstacles to the success of the program. The IMF encourages the authorities to continue with their fiscal consolidation efforts and to strengthen the budget framework to ensure sustainability and growth.