2015年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Morocco_First_Review_Under_the_Arrangement_Under_the_Precautionary_And_Liquidity_Line_33页_988kb

Morocco: First Review Under the Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL) Arrangement

Core Content

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) conducted a First Review Under the Arrangement Under the Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL) for Morocco, which was approved in July 2014 for an amount of SDR 3.2351 billion (550 percent of quota). The arrangement is intended to provide insurance against external risks and support Morocco's fiscal and external vulnerability reduction program, aiming to foster higher and more inclusive growth. Despite some economic slowdowns and persistent challenges, Morocco continues to treat the PLL arrangement as precautionary and remains on track with its reform agenda.

Main Points

Economic Performance and Outlook

• GDP growth slowed to about 3 percent in 2014, down from 4.4 percent in 2013, due to weak external demand and low domestic confidence.
• Inflation remained low, averaging 0.4 percent in 2014 and expected to stay around 2 percent in the medium term.
• Current account deficit narrowed to 5.8 percent of GDP in 2014, down from 7.5 percent in 2013.
• Net international reserves (NIR) reached 93.6 percent of the Fund's reserve adequacy (ARA) metric, indicating a relatively comfortable reserve position.
• Unemployment remained high, reaching 9.6 percent in October 2014, with youth unemployment rising to 20.6 percent.

Fiscal and External Adjustments

• Fiscal deficit for 2014 was 4.9 percent of GDP, meeting the target despite a 0.7 percent shortfall in the end-September indicative target due to frontloaded transfers and increased investment spending.
• Subsidy reforms were a key focus, with diesel subsidies eliminated in January 2015, and price-setting mechanisms for all liquid petroleum products fully liberalized.
• A new Organic Budget Law (OBL) was adopted in November 2014 but invalidated by the Constitutional Council for procedural reasons. The government plans to resubmit a revised draft by the Spring session of parliament to allow implementation in 2016.
• Public debt is expected to peak at 68 percent of GDP in 2015, then decline to 63 percent in the medium term, remaining sustainable under stress tests.

Reforms and Institutional Strengthening

• Bank Al Maghrib (BAM) has strengthened monetary and financial sector supervision, aligning with Basel III standards and introducing a new banking law in November 2014.
• Nonperforming loans increased to 6.9 percent in November 2014, but provisioning is adequate, and BAM is closely monitoring the situation.
• Data transparency is strong, with Morocco adhering to the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) and participating in OpenData Platform initiatives.

Key Areas of PLL Qualification

A. General Assessment

• Morocco continues to perform strongly in three out of five PLL qualification areas and does not substantially underperform in the other two.
• Macroeconomic stability is supported by a sound policy framework, with low inflation, improved reserves, and reduced external and fiscal deficits.
• The public sector debt is considered sustainable, and fiscal policy is on track with the medium-term objective of a 3 percent fiscal deficit by 2017.

B. Assessment of Specific PLL Criteria

1. Sustainable External Position

• The current account deficit has narrowed significantly, and reserves are well above the ARA metric.
• The exchange rate is in line with fundamentals, and external debt sustainability is robust.

2. Capital Account Position

• Private flows now constitute the largest share of the capital account, though public flows remain significant.
• Morocco has successfully accessed international capital markets, raising €1.0 billion in June 2014 and US$1.5 billion in April 2014.

3. Reserve Position

• Reserves are adequate despite potential BOP pressures.
• The reserve coverage ratio is comfortable, and reserves are expected to increase gradually to exceed 100 percent of the ARA metric.

4. Fiscal Policy

• Morocco has reduced fiscal risks through subsidy reform and tax reforms.
• The cyclically-adjusted primary balance is projected to improve by 0.5 percent of GDP in 2015.
• Expenditure is being reduced, with subsidy and wage bills expected to decline by 1.3 and 0.2 percent of GDP, respectively.

5. Monetary Policy

• Inflation is well anchored, and monetary policy is appropriate within the current framework.
• The policy rate was lowered twice in 2014 to 2.5 percent, reflecting improved economic conditions.
• The monetary framework is expected to evolve toward a more flexible exchange rate, with the Fund providing technical assistance.

6. Financial Sector Soundness

• The financial system is sound, with the capital adequacy ratio well above Basel III requirements.
• Banking supervision is being strengthened, and the new banking law enhances regulatory, supervisory, and macroprudential frameworks.

Program Issues and Outlook

• Morocco meets all four exceptional access criteria, indicating continued eligibility for the PLL.
• External risks have declined, but remain elevated compared to pre-crisis levels.
• The economic outlook for 2015 is positive, with growth expected to recover close to 4.5 percent, assuming agricultural growth returns to normal and non-agricultural sectors remain stable.
• Reforms are essential to consolidate gains and enhance resilience, especially in the face of external shocks and domestic political uncertainties.

Conclusion

The IMF Staff Report recommends the completion of the first review under the PLL arrangement, as Morocco continues to meet the qualification criteria and implement key reforms. The program remains on track, and the country is well-positioned to exit the PLL if external risks continue to decline and fiscal and external balances improve. The Fund is ready to provide technical assistance in areas such as data transparency, financial sector supervision, and monetary policy evolution.