IMF国际货币组织全球-Morocco_Second-Review-Under-the-Arrangement-Under-the-Precautionary-and-Liquidity-Line_48页_1mb

报告摘要

Morocco: Second Review Under the Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL) Arrangement

Core Content Overview

The IMF completed the Second Review Under the Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL) Arrangement for Morocco on December 13, 2019. The arrangement, approved in December 2018 for SDR 2.1508 billion (about US$3 billion), supports the Moroccan authorities' efforts to strengthen economic resilience and promote higher and more inclusive growth. Morocco has not drawn on the arrangement and continues to treat it as precautionary.

The review highlights economic and policy developments since the first review, as well as the outlook and risks for the medium term. It also includes a review of the PLL qualification criteria and key recommendations for continued reforms.

Main Points and Key Information

1. Economic Performance and Challenges

Growth in 2019: Expected to decline to 2.8%, down from 3.0% in 2018, due to a contraction in agricultural output and weaker-than-expected fiscal consolidation.
Unemployment: Increased to 9.4% in Q3-2019, with youth and women unemployment remaining high at 26% and 14%, respectively.
Fiscal Deficit: Missed the end-September 2019 indicative target by 0.2% of GDP, and is expected to rise to 4.0% of GDP in 2019, up from 3.7% in 2018.
Public Debt: Projected to increase to 66% of GDP in 2019, up from 65.3% in 2018.
Monetary Policy: Remains accommodative, with inflation declining to 0.3% (y-o-y) in September 2019, driven by lower food and oil prices.

2. PLL Qualification Status

Morocco continues to meet the PLL qualification criteria, performing well in monetary, financial, and data adequacy areas.
The external position is moderately weaker than implied by fundamentals and desirable policies.
The fiscal deficit and public debt remain above target levels, highlighting the need for accelerated fiscal reforms.
The net international reserves (NIR) at end-September 2019 were slightly above the indicative target, at MAD233 billion (US$24.45 billion), equivalent to 5.2 months of imports.

3. Key Policy Recommendations

Tax Reforms: Needed to broaden the tax base, reduce distortions, and increase equity. A more comprehensive reform could raise tax revenues by 0.8–1.2% of GDP.
Public Sector Reforms: Required to improve efficiency and reduce corruption, including civil service reform, strengthened SOE oversight, and sound public financial management.
Fiscal Decentralization: Should be implemented carefully to reduce regional disparities and improve transparency.
Exchange Rate Flexibility: The transition to a more flexible exchange rate regime is expected to enhance the economy's resilience and competitiveness.
Financial Sector Reforms: Continued efforts are needed to improve governance, AML/CFT compliance, and financial oversight.

4. Outlook and Risks

Growth Outlook: Expected to increase to 3.7% in 2020, and 4.5% over the medium term, contingent on productivity gains and continued reforms.
Inflation Outlook: Projected to rise to 1.2% in 2020, and stabilize around 2% over the medium term.
Fiscal Deficit: Expected to decline to 3.8% of GDP in 2020, and stabilize around 3% after 2021.
Current Account Deficit: Projected to narrow to 3.9% of GDP in 2020, and further to 2.8% in the medium term, driven by increased automobile exports and lower energy imports.
Risks:
- Downside Risks: Delays in reform implementation, weak global growth, geopolitical tensions, and rising oil prices.
- Upward Risks: Lower oil prices and increased regional integration could boost economic resilience and growth prospects.

Key Reforms and Progress

1. Fiscal Policy

The Organic Budget Law (OBL) has been implemented, including the introduction of a three-year budget framework in 2019.
A deconcentration charter and transparent criteria for transferring public resources to regions have been adopted.
Public wage increases and PPP delays contributed to the missed fiscal deficit target.

2. Financial Sector

Progress has been made in upgrading the financial sector policy framework in line with 2015 FSAP recommendations.
Bank capitalization is adequate, with the regulatory capital ratio reaching 15.1% in June 2019.
Non-performing loans (NPLs) remain elevated at 7.7%, but provisioning levels are comfortable.
A new BAM Law was enacted in July 2019, improving central bank autonomy and governance.

3. Exchange Rate Regime

The transition to greater exchange rate flexibility has started, aiming to preserve reserve buffers and enhance competitiveness.
The exchange rate has remained stable since the start of the reform in January 2018.
Capital outflow restrictions will be relaxed gradually to minimize transition risks.

4. Business Environment and Labor Market

Structural reforms have accelerated since 2018, including the reactivation of the Competition Council.
A comprehensive financial inclusion strategy was launched in early 2019, aiming to improve access to finance for (V)SMEs.
Labor market reforms and education improvements are needed to reduce unemployment and increase female participation.
Anti-corruption measures should be implemented decisively to reinforce public trust.

Conclusion

The second review under the PLL arrangement reaffirms Morocco's commitment to macroeconomic stability and structural reforms. While economic growth and fiscal performance have been below expectations, the IMF supports the ongoing reforms to strengthen resilience, reduce vulnerabilities, and promote inclusive growth. The transition to a more flexible exchange rate regime is seen as beneficial for the economy, and the authorities are expected to continue with reforms in the tax, fiscal, and governance areas to achieve long-term growth and stability.