20250703-冠通期货-沥青_震荡运行_3页_509kb

报告摘要

As总结phalt Market Analysis Summary

Overall Outlook

The report from Guang Tong Research dated July 3, 2025, indicates that the asphalt market is in an oscillating ("震荡运行") phase, suggesting price movements without a clear trend.

Key Strategy

The recommended strategy is to buy on dips the 09-12 futures spread for asphalt. This is based on supply-demand dynamics and fading geopolitical risks.

Supply Dynamics

Asphalt production has increased: supply rates rose by 1.1 percentage points to 31.5% in the previous week, higher than last year by 6.9 percentage points.
Expected production for July is 254.2 million tons, representing a 6.0% monthly increase and a 23.6% year-on-year jump.
Inventory levels at refineries are at historically low levels (16.0% stock ratio), indicating tight supply conditions despite ongoing weather disruptions in some regions.

Demand Factors

Road asphalt operating rates saw a small uplift to 24.0%, still near historical lows, constrained by funding issues and weather.
Government policies are expected to support demand, with plans for increased infrastructure spending, fiscal stimulus measures (including higher government debt and special bonds), and road transport investments, despite currently negative growth rates in some sectors.

Price and Geopolitical Analysis

Asphalt期货价格略有上涨：The 2509 contract rose 0.25% to 3588 yuan/ton in Beijing, trading above the 5-day moving average.
Geopolitical risks have decreased: Middle East tensions eased with Iran-Israel ceasefires and reduced sanctions concerns, lessening trade war fears; however, global trade issues persist.
Inventory-to-sales ratio remains low, and regional price differences exist, with central China showing stronger adjustments relative to futures contracts.

Primary Drivers and Recommendation

Key drivers include supply recovery, government stimulus potential, and diminished geopolitical volatility.
Maintain a position favoring the 09-12 spread, with caution due to underlying demand weaknesses.

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