2010年-ECB欧洲央行_Results_of_the_ECB_Survey_of_Professional_Forecasters_for_the_fourth_quarter_of_2010_5页_317kb

报告摘要

ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters - Fourth Quarter of 2010

Core Content

The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the fourth quarter of 2010 provides insights into inflation, real GDP growth, and unemployment rate expectations among financial and non-financial experts in the EU. The survey received 61 responses and covered forecasts for 2010, 2011, 2012, and the longer-term (2015).

Inflation Expectations

Short to Medium Term (2010–2012)

2010: Expected inflation at 1.5%, up by 0.1 percentage point from the previous SPF round.
2011: Expected inflation at 1.5%, unchanged from the previous round.
2012: Expected inflation at 1.6%, down by 0.1 percentage point from the previous round.

Probability Distributions

The aggregate probability distribution for 2010 is now more concentrated in the range 1.5%–1.9%, with 57% probability assigned to this interval.
For 2011, the probability of inflation being in the 1.5%–1.9% range increased slightly.
For 2012, the probability distribution remained broadly stable.

Risk Assessment

Balanced risks for 2010 and 2012.
Downside risks for 2011, mainly due to low wage pressure from high unemployment and sluggish growth.
Upside risks include rising oil and commodity prices and increased indirect taxation.

Comparison with Other Indicators

SPF expectations are broadly similar to those of Consensus Economics and the Euro Zone Barometer for all horizons.

Longer-Term Inflation Expectations (2015)

Revised downwards slightly, from 1.95% to 1.90%.
The median of the point forecasts remained at 1.9%.
SPF expectations are slightly below those of Consensus Economics (2.0%) and in line with the Euro Zone Barometer (1.9%).

Uncertainty and Risk

Standard deviation of the probability distribution increased slightly.
Probability of inflation ≥2% remained stable at 45%.
Financial market indicators of inflation expectations showed a decline in August and September, but increased in October. These indicators are more volatile due to the inclusion of an inflation risk premium and bond market liquidity fluctuations.

Real GDP Growth Expectations

Short to Medium Term (2010–2012)

2010: Expected growth at 1.6%, up by 0.5 percentage points.
2011: Expected growth at 1.5%, up by 0.1 percentage points.
2012: Expected growth at 1.7%, up by 0.1 percentage points.

Probability Distributions

For 2010, the probability distribution shifted towards higher outcomes, with 58% probability assigned to 1.5%–1.9%.
For 2011 and 2012, the probability distributions shifted slightly towards higher outcomes, with close to 60% probability assigned to 1.0%–1.9%.

Risk Assessment

Downside risks dominate for all horizons, particularly for 2010.
Main downside risks include weaker US growth and slowdown in emerging economies.
Upside risks include improved confidence, labour market recovery, and successful fiscal consolidation.

Comparison with Other Indicators

SPF growth expectations are within the ranges of the ECB staff macroeconomic projections and broadly in line with the latest Consensus Economics and Euro Zone Barometer forecasts.

Unemployment Rate Expectations

Short to Medium Term (2010–2012)

2010: Unemployment rate expected at 10.1%, unchanged from the previous round.
2011: Revised down to 10.0%.
2012: Revised down to 9.6%.

Longer-Term (2015)

Unemployment rate expected at 8.3%, a reduction of 0.1 percentage points from the previous SPF round.
Upside risks are assessed for both short and medium-term forecasts.

Conditioning Assumptions and Other Variables

Oil prices are expected to rise from USD 80 in Q4 2010 to USD 88 in 2012.
Wage growth is forecasted to be 1.5% in 2010, increasing to 1.6% in 2011, 1.8% in 2012, and 2.4% in 2015.
The euro is expected to weaken against the US dollar, reaching USD 1.34 in 2011 and USD 1.32 in 2012.
The ECB policy rate is expected to remain stable at 1.0% until Q2 2011, then increase to 1.8% on average in 2012.

Summary of Key Points

Inflation is expected to remain moderately low, with forecasts for 2010 and 2011 unchanged, and a slight decline for 2012.
Real GDP growth has increased across all horizons, with the largest rise in 2010.
Unemployment is expected to decline over the medium term, with no change in 2010.
Longer-term inflation expectations have slightly decreased but remain stable in terms of the probability of exceeding 2%.
Uncertainty in forecasts has increased slightly for longer-term inflation, while GDP growth uncertainty remains unchanged.
Market-based inflation indicators are more volatile than survey-based ones due to premiums and liquidity conditions.
SPF forecasts align closely with ECB staff projections and other survey-based indicators.