2014年-ECB欧洲央行_Results_of_the_ECB_Survey_of_Professional_Forecasters_for_the_first_quarter_of_2014_6页_1mb

ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters - Q1 2014 Summary

Core Content Overview

The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the first quarter of 2014 provides insights into the expectations of professional forecasters regarding inflation, real GDP growth, and unemployment in the euro area. The survey was conducted from 16 to 24 January 2014 and received 53 responses.

Inflation Expectations

• Short-term expectations:

  • 2014: 1.1%
  • 2015: 1.4%
  • 2016: 1.7%
  • Longer-term (2018): 1.9% (revised down to 1.87% from 1.93% in Q4 2013)

• Key changes:

  • Inflation expectations for 2014 and 2015 were revised downwards by 0.4 and 0.2 percentage points, respectively.
  • The mean point estimate for 2014 and 2015 is now lower than the previous survey round.
  • The median of the longer-term inflation expectations declined to 1.9% from 2.0% in the previous survey.
  • The probability of negative inflation remains very low: 1.3% for 2014, 1.2% for 2015, and 1.0% for 2016.

• Reasons for downward revisions:

  • Lower commodity prices
  • Appreciation of the euro
  • Weakness in economic and labor market conditions

• Probability Distributions:

  • For 2014, the highest probability (40%) is assigned to an inflation rate between 1.0% and 1.4%, with a significant increase in the probability of 0.5% to 0.9% (26%).
  • For 2015, the highest probability (32%) is assigned to 1.0% to 1.4%, with the second largest (29%) to 1.5% to 1.9%.
  • For 2016, the highest probability (36%) is assigned to 1.5% to 1.9%, but there is more probability assigned to outcomes below this range.
  • The aggregate probability distribution for 2014 and 2015 has shifted further to the left, indicating a lower expected inflation.

Real GDP Growth Expectations

• Short-term expectations:

  • 2014: 1.0%
  • 2015: 1.5%
  • 2016: 1.7%
  • Longer-term (2018): 1.8%

• Key changes:

  • Real GDP growth expectations for 2014 and 2015 remained unchanged.
  • For 2016, the SPF forecast is slightly higher than the Euro Zone Barometer forecast.
  • The baseline outlook for growth is unchanged, but the balance of risks is tilted to the downside due to concerns about reform fatigue and financial market uncertainty.

• Probability Distributions:

  • For 2014, the highest probability (35%) is assigned to the interval 1.0% to 1.4%, up from 31% in the previous survey.
  • For 2015, the shifts in the probability distribution are limited.

Unemployment Rate Expectations

• Short-term expectations:

  • 2014: 12.1%
  • 2015: 11.7%
  • 2016: 11.2%
  • Longer-term (2018): 9.6% (up 0.1 percentage point from the previous survey)

• Key changes:

  • Unemployment expectations for 2015 and 2016 were revised upwards.
  • The SPF forecast for 2014 is slightly above the Eurosystem staff projections and slightly below Consensus Economics forecasts.
  • The unemployment rate is expected to decline gradually over time.

• Probability Distributions:

  • The highest probability (59%) is still assigned to outcomes between 9.0% and 10.9% for the longer-term forecast.
  • Risks to the unemployment outlook are tilted to the upside, with concerns about a modest recovery and lack of structural reforms.
  • Downside risks are related to stronger competitiveness gains and job creation policies.

Other Variables and Assumptions

• Oil price:

  • Expected to be USD 108.1 per barrel in Q1 2014.
  • It is expected to decline to USD 106.7 in Q2 2014 and then increase again to USD 107.5 in 2015 and USD 109.3 in 2016.

• ECB's main refinancing rate:

  • Expected to remain at 0.25% until the end of 2014.
  • Then to increase to 0.4% in 2015 and 0.9% in 2016.

• USD/EUR exchange rate:

  • Expected to increase from 1.35 in Q1 2014 to 1.29 in 2015 and 2016.

• Compensation per employee growth:

  • Expected to be 1.5% in 2014 and 1.7% in 2015.
  • For 2016, it is expected to be 1.9%.

Summary of Key Trends

• Inflation expectations for 2014 and 2015 have revised downwards, but a gradual rise is expected over the next three years.
• Real GDP growth is expected to continue strengthening, albeit gradually.
• Unemployment rate is expected to decline over time, though remains high in the short to medium term.
• The balance of risks is tilted to the downside for inflation and growth, but upside risks are also noted, such as faster recovery and structural reform benefits.
• Uncertainty remains relatively high, especially for longer-term inflation expectations.