2013年-ECB欧洲央行_Results_of_the_ECB_survey_of_professional_forecasters_for_the_first_quarter_of_2013_5页_413kb

ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters: Q1 2013 Results Summary

Core Content

The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the first quarter of 2013 provides updated expectations for key macroeconomic indicators in the euro area. The survey collected 56 responses and covers inflation, real GDP growth, and unemployment for the short-term (2013 and 2014) and longer-term (2015 and 2017) horizons. The results show a slight downward revision in short-term inflation and real GDP growth expectations, and an upward revision in unemployment expectations. Longer-term inflation expectations remain unchanged at 2.0%.

Key Findings

Inflation Expectations

• Short-term (2013 and 2014): Inflation expectations are at 1.8% for both years, a 0.1 percentage point decrease from the previous survey round.
• Longer-term (2017): Inflation expectations remain at 2.0%, with a slight decrease in the probability of inflation being at or above 2.0% (from 51% to 50%).
• Risk Assessment: Risks to the inflation outlook are balanced, with upward risks from potential increases in commodity prices and downward risks from economic and labor market deterioration.

Real GDP Growth Expectations

• Short-term (2013 and 2014): Real GDP growth expectations have been revised downwards to 0.0% and 1.1% respectively, compared to 0.3% and 1.3% in the previous survey round.
• Longer-term (2017): Expectations remain stable at 1.8%.
• Risk Assessment: The balance of risks to GDP growth is tilted to the downside, mainly due to external drag and low market confidence. An upside risk is linked to positive developments in world trade and improved economic sentiment.

Unemployment Rate Expectations

• Short-term (2013 and 2014): Unemployment rate expectations have been revised upwards to 12.1% and 11.9% respectively, compared to 11.6% and 11.2% in the previous survey round.
• Longer-term (2017): Unemployment rate expectations increased to 9.5%, following a previous decrease.
• Risk Assessment: Short-term risks are mainly on the upside, linked to further economic weakness and low confidence. Longer-term risks are associated with the success of structural reforms.

Other Variables and Assumptions

• Oil Prices: Expected to rise from around USD 110 per barrel in Q1 2013 to USD 113.9 in 2015.
• USD/EUR Exchange Rate: Expected to remain stable at USD 1.30 in Q1 2013 and USD 1.29 in 2015.
• Compensation per Employee Growth: Expected to increase from 1.8% in 2013 to 2.4% in 2017.
• ECB Main Refinancing Rate: Expected to be 0.7% until the end of Q1 2013, then slightly lower for the rest of 2013, rising to 0.8% in 2014 and 1.2% in 2015.

Summary of Changes

Main Views

• Inflation: Short-term expectations have slightly decreased, while longer-term expectations remain stable.
• Real GDP Growth: Expectations have been revised downwards, but a return to sustained expansion is anticipated in mid-2013.
• Unemployment: Expectations have increased for 2013 and 2014, reflecting weaker economic activity, while longer-term expectations have improved.
• Uncertainty: Aggregate uncertainty remains high, despite a marginal decline in the standard deviation of the probability distribution for longer-term inflation.

Conclusion

The SPF survey for Q1 2013 indicates a cautious outlook for the euro area economy, with slightly lower inflation and real GDP growth expectations and higher unemployment forecasts for the short term. Longer-term expectations for inflation and GDP growth remain stable, but uncertainty persists. The results reflect the impact of prolonged economic uncertainty and fiscal consolidation on growth, while structural reforms are seen as a potential upside for the labor market.