2017年-ECB欧洲央行_The_ECB_Survey_of_Professional_Forecasters_SPF_-_First_Quarter_of_2017_11页_304kb

ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters - Q1 2017 Summary

Core Content

The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the first quarter of 2017 provides updated inflation and growth expectations for the Eurozone. The survey highlights changes in short-term forecasts and maintains consistency in long-term projections.

Key Findings

Inflation Expectations

• Near-term inflation expectations for 2017, 2018, and 2019 were 1.4%, 1.5%, and 1.6%, respectively.
• These expectations were revised upwards by 0.2 p.p. for 2017 and 0.1 p.p. for 2018, primarily due to higher oil prices.
• Underlying inflation (HICP excluding food and energy) was expected to rise to 1.1%, 1.3%, and 1.5% for 2017, 2018, and 2019, respectively, and to 1.7% by 2021.
• The median and average point forecast for longer-term inflation expectations (2021) remained 1.8%, consistent with the previous survey.
• Aggregate probability distribution for inflation expectations showed a broadly symmetric pattern around the central range of 1.5%–1.9%, with downside risks still present.
• The probability of inflation being at or above 2.0% was 32%, compared to 33% in the previous round, while the probability of below 1% was 13%.

GDP Growth Expectations

• Real GDP growth for 2017, 2018, and 2019 was expected to be 1.5% per annum.
• The 2017 forecast was revised upwards from 1.4% to 1.5%, while 2018 remained at 1.5%.
• The longer-term growth expectation (2021) was unchanged at 1.6%.
• The aggregate probability distribution for GDP growth in 2017 shifted slightly to the right and became more concentrated, while distributions for 2018 and 2021 showed little change.
• Risks to GDP growth were still tilted to the downside at all horizons, with the quantitative risk measure slightly more negative than in the previous round.

Unemployment Rate Expectations

• Unemployment rate expectations for 2017, 2018, and 2019 were 9.5%, 9.2%, and 8.9%, respectively.
• These were revised downwards by 0.2 p.p. and 0.1 p.p. compared to the previous SPF.
• The longer-term unemployment rate expectation (2021) was revised to 8.5%, the lowest since 2012, but still above pre-crisis levels (~7%).
• Aggregate probability distributions showed upside risks for all horizons, with the mean of the distribution higher than the average point forecast.
• The degree of upside risk increased with the forecast horizon, mirroring the risks associated with GDP growth.

Other Variables and Assumptions

• Monetary policy was expected to remain accommodative, with the Eurosystem's main refinancing rate likely to stay around 0% until the end of 2018, rising to 0.1% in 2019.
• The USD/EUR exchange rate was forecast to fluctuate around 1.05 in 2018, 5.5% weaker than the previous SPF, and then strengthen to 1.08 in 2019.
• Oil prices were expected to rise to USD 59 per barrel by 2019, with a 5.5% increase for 2017 and a 2% decrease for 2018 compared to the previous survey.
• Compensation per employee growth was expected to be 1.6%, 1.8%, 1.9%, and 2.0% for 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2021, respectively, with slight upward revisions in the near term.

Conclusion

The SPF Q1 2017 results reflect a modest upward adjustment in near-term inflation expectations due to oil price increases, while longer-term inflation expectations remained stable at 1.8%. Real GDP growth expectations were revised upwards for 2017, with a downward trajectory in unemployment rates expected across all horizons. The survey also highlights continued accommodative monetary policy, exchange rate movements, and oil price trends as key factors influencing economic forecasts.