2012年-ECB欧洲央行_Results_of_the_ECB_survey_of_professional_forecasters_for_the_first_quarter_of_2012_5页_283kb

Summary of ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters for Q1 2012

Core Content

The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the first quarter of 2012 provides insights into the expectations of professional forecasters regarding key macroeconomic indicators for the euro area. The survey received 58 responses and was conducted between 17 and 20 January 2012. The results highlight trends in inflation, GDP growth, and unemployment rate expectations for the short and medium term, as well as longer-term projections.

Main Views

Inflation Expectations

• Short-term inflation expectations (2012 and 2013):

  • The SPF forecasts for 2012 and 2013 are 1.9% and 1.7%, respectively.
  • These figures are slightly revised upward for 2012 and slightly downward for 2013 compared to the previous survey round (Q4 2011).
  • The upward revision for 2012 is attributed to higher expected indirect taxes and administered prices.
  • The downward revision for 2013 is linked to lower economic activity, stronger fiscal consolidation, and higher unemployment expectations.
  • The aggregate probability distribution for 2012 has shifted slightly towards higher outcomes, with a 44% probability of inflation being 2% or above.
  • For 2013, the distribution has shifted towards lower outcomes, with the highest probability assigned to the interval 1.5%–1.9%.

• Longer-term inflation expectations (2016):

  • The average point forecast and the median of the point forecasts remain at 2.0%.
  • The SPF forecasts align with those of Consensus Economics and the Euro Zone Barometer for 2016.
  • The aggregate probability distribution has shifted marginally towards lower outcomes, with the probability of inflation being 2.0% or above decreasing from 48% to 46%.
  • Disagreement about longer-term inflation expectations has decreased slightly, from 0.3% to 0.2%.
  • The balance of risks remains largely on the downside, due to ongoing uncertainties and potential negative shocks.

GDP Growth Expectations

• Short-term GDP growth expectations (2012 and 2013):

  • The SPF forecasts for 2012 and 2013 are -0.1% and 1.1%, respectively.
  • These figures are significantly revised down compared to the previous survey round (Q4 2011), by 0.9% and 0.5% respectively.
  • The downward revision is attributed to additional fiscal consolidation, tighter credit conditions, lower confidence, and higher uncertainty.
  • The aggregate probability distribution for 2012 has shifted towards lower outcomes, with a 54% probability of GDP growth being between -0.5% and 0.4%.
  • The balance of risks for 2012 is on the upside, while for 2013 it is on the downside.

• Longer-term GDP growth expectations (2016):

  • The average point forecast remains at 1.8%, unchanged from the previous survey round.
  • The balance of risks is largely on the downside, with respondents still assigning a 30% probability to growth within the 1.5%–1.9% range.

Unemployment Rate Expectations

• Short-term unemployment rate expectations (2012 and 2013):

  • The SPF forecasts for both years are 10.6%, a significant revision up from the previous survey round.
  • The upward revision is primarily due to lower economic activity expectations.
  • The balance of risks for 2012 is slightly on the downside, while for 2013 it is on the upside.

• Longer-term unemployment rate expectations (2016):

  • The average point forecast has increased to 8.8%, with a clear shift towards higher outcomes.
  • The balance of risks is clearly on the upside, indicating optimism about future employment conditions.

Key Information

• The SPF results are consistent with other surveys such as Consensus Economics and the Euro Zone Barometer.
• Uncertainty remains high, especially in the context of sovereign debt crises and fiscal policies.
• Oil prices are expected to rise, while the EUR/USD exchange rate is anticipated to weaken slightly.
• The ECB's main refinancing rate is projected to remain around 0.9%–1.0% for 2012 and 2013.
• Compensation per employee growth is expected to stabilize at 2.1% in the short term and rise to 2.4% in the long term.

Additional Variables

• EUR/USD exchange rate: Expected to be around 1.28 in 2012, with the euro appreciating slightly by year-end.
• Oil prices: Projected to be around USD 110 per barrel in 2012, with a marginal increase in 2013.
• Compensation per employee growth: Expected to remain stable at 2.1% for 2012 and 2013, and to increase to 2.4% in the long term.

Conclusion

The SPF survey for Q1 2012 reflects a moderate upward revision in short-term inflation expectations for 2012 and a slight downward revision for 2013, with longer-term inflation expectations unchanged. GDP growth expectations have been significantly revised down, highlighting concerns about economic activity and fiscal consolidation. Unemployment rate expectations have also been revised up, with longer-term expectations showing a more positive outlook. The results emphasize the ongoing uncertainties and risks associated with the euro area's economic environment, particularly related to the sovereign debt crisis and structural reforms.