2025-06-09-Jefferies-禾赛科技（HSAI）_速腾聚创（2498）_智能驾驶和机器人技术推动增长；首次覆盖速腾聚创和禾赛科技_32页_3mb

Jefferies Equity Research: ASIA-PACIFIC Autos & Auto Parts

Key Points

Market Overview & Trends

• LiDAR Market Growth: Global LiDAR market expected to reach RMB75 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 52% from 2025–2030. This growth is driven by:

  • Increasing adoption in Autonomous Driving (ADAS) and Robotaxi applications.
  • Expansion into Pan-Robotics, including humanoid robots, lawn mowers, and industrial/agricultural robots.

• Market Segmentation & Penetration:

  • Automotive (ADAS): LiDAR shipments for ADAS to reach 30 million units (RMB53 billion) by 2030, with CAGR of 48%.
  • Robotics: LiDAR shipments to reach 9.6 million units (RMB22 billion) by 2030, with CAGR of 64%.
  • Penetration Rates: Robotic lawn mowers (65% by 2030), humanoid robots (85% by 2030).

• Technology & Cost: Solid-state LiDARs (MEMS & Flash LIDAR) are dominant due to cost reductions ($200 ASP), enabling adoption in lower-priced vehicles (∼RMB200k–250k). Regulatory support from China MIIT (functional safety requirements) is accelerating ADAS LiDAR adoption.

Company Coverage: Robosense & Hesai

Robosense

• Rating: BUY; Target Price: HKD49.8
• Market Position: Holds ∼26% of the global LiDAR market (2024 shipments). Strong in automotive LiDAR (ADAS market).
• Technology: Full-stack solutions (E/M/R platforms), proprietary SPAD + SoC chips. Mass production capabilities (2 million units/year by 2025).
• Traction: 3-year order from Mammotion (1.2 million units for robotic mowers). Partnerships with Robotaxi players (DiDi, PonyAI).
• Financials (Est.): Break-even in Q4 2025; Net profit ∼RMB112 million in 2026. Revenue CAGR of 55% (2024–2026E).
• Risks: Lower-than-expected LiDAR adoption in China; Fewer LiDARs in humanoid robots.

Hesai

• Rating: BUY; Target Price: USD29.3
• Market Position: Leader in automotive LiDARs (ADAS and Robotaxi). Holds ∼26% of global PV LiDAR market (2024).
• Technology: High integration of optics, mechanics, electronics (proprietary ASICs). Strong customer relationships (Li Auto, Geely, Xiaomi).
• Traction: Global reach (23 OEMs across 120+ models). Mass production via highly-automated factories (90% automation rate). Expansion into robotic applications (Dreame Technology).
• Financials (Est.): Net profit ∼RMB277 million in 2025 (44–69% revenue growth). Full-year net profit ∼RMB2 billion in 2030E.
• Risks: Lower-than-expected adoption in China; Fewer LiDARs in humanoid robots.

Investment Thesis

• Both companies are driving innovation in LiDAR technology and capturing growing market share in both automotive and robotics segments. Robosense leads in robotics, while Hesai excels in automotive LiDARs.
• The LiDAR market is consolidating, with Hesai and Robosense emerging as leaders. Price targets are based on 20× 2030E P/E, reflecting stable profitability by then.
• Rising demand in autonomous driving and robotics (Global robotaxi fleet expanding to 1 million units by 2030) underpins growth prospects.

This summary captures the core insights while maintaining a markdown-friendly structure. Let me know if you need further refinement!