2024年全球能源与气候模型（英）-137页_7mb

报告摘要

Global Energy and Climate Model (GEC Model) Summary

Core Content Overview

The Global Energy and Climate (GEC) Model is the principal tool used by the International Energy Agency (IEA) to generate detailed, long-term energy scenarios across sectors and regions. Developed as part of the IEA's efforts to support the transition to a net-zero emissions energy system by 2050, the GEC Model integrates the strengths of the World Energy Model (WEM) and Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) models, offering a bottom-up partial-optimisation framework that covers the entire global energy system.

The GEC Model is used to explore three main scenarios:

Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS)
Announced Pledges Scenario (APS)
Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE Scenario)

These scenarios are not predictions but tools to help understand the range of possible futures and the impact of policy, technology, and economic decisions on the global energy system.

Main Scenarios and Their Objectives

1.1.1 Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS)

Definition: Reflects current policy settings and planned manufacturing capacities for clean energy technologies as of August 2024.
Objective: Provides a benchmark to assess the potential achievements of recent energy and climate policies, highlighting the "implementation gap" between stated goals and actual outcomes.
Key Assumptions: Policies are implemented as planned, with no assumption of future strengthening or weakening unless evidence suggests otherwise.

1.1.2 Announced Pledges Scenario (APS)

Definition: Assumes all climate commitments, including NDCs and net zero targets, will be fully met by 2030 and beyond.
Objective: Shows how close current pledges are to the 1.5°C temperature goal and universal energy access, highlighting the "ambition gap."
Key Assumptions: Policies are implemented fully and on time, and all targets for energy access are achieved.

1.1.3 Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE Scenario)

Definition: A normative scenario that outlines a pathway for the global energy sector to achieve net zero CO₂ emissions by 2050.
Objective: Demonstrates what is required across all sectors to meet the SDGs and climate goals, including universal energy access by 2030 and significant improvements in air quality.
Key Assumptions: The energy sector must achieve net zero emissions without relying on offsets from other sectors, and global cooperation is essential for success.

Key Components of the GEC Model

1.1.3.1 Energy System Coverage

The GEC Model covers 27 regions and includes all energy sectors:
- Final energy demand: Industry, transport, buildings, agriculture, and other non-energy use.
- Energy transformation: Electricity generation, heat production, refining, biofuels, hydrogen, and related infrastructure.
- Energy supply: Fossil fuel exploration, extraction, trade, and renewable energy resources.

1.1.3.2 Data Sources

Relies on the IEA's own databases of energy and economic statistics.
Integrates data from external institutions and collaborations.
Includes detailed sensitivity analyses to explore uncertainties in energy demand and emissions.

1.1.3.3 Policy and Technology Integration

Policies are informed by the Policies and Measures Database, which is now fully available online.
Technology cost and maturity are key drivers of energy transitions, with no assumptions about breakthroughs like nuclear fusion.

Key Model Features

Scenario Comparisons: Helps identify the factors driving different outcomes and the opportunities and risks along the way.
Integrated Approach: Combines energy, climate, and sustainable development goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 7 (energy access), SDG 3 (air pollution), and SDG 13 (climate action).
Techno-economic Analysis: Includes detailed cost models, efficiency curves, and technology deployment pathways.
Global and Regional Analysis: Provides insights into both global trends and regional specifics, including energy prices, affordability, and investment requirements.
Environmental Impact Assessment: Tracks CO₂, methane, and other greenhouse gas emissions, as well as local air pollutants and temperature outcomes.

1.2 Selected Developments in 2024

Cross-cutting Inputs and Assumptions

Population and economic growth: Assumptions are based on regional data and updated for 2024.
Prices: Includes fossil fuel and CO₂ prices, with a focus on their impact on energy demand and investment.
Policies: Fully integrated into the model, with a new database available online.

Sector-Specific Developments

Industry: Improved representation of recycling processes for plastics and paper, with a distinction between chemical and mechanical recycling.
Transport: New bottom-up model for shipping activity, aligning with energy and clean technology trade projections.
Buildings: Enhanced methodology for assessing energy demand and technology use, including thermosensitivity analysis.
Electricity Generation: Introduction of value-adjusted Levelised Cost of Electricity (LCOE), which accounts for broader economic and environmental factors beyond just generation costs.

Key Implications

The NZE Scenario highlights the need for global cooperation, policy alignment, and technology deployment.
The implementation gap between STEPS and APS underscores the need for stronger policy enforcement and faster technological adoption.
Energy access and affordability are central to the GEC Model, with a focus on achieving universal access to electricity and clean cooking by 2030.
Investment in the energy sector, including fuel supply and clean technologies, is critical to meeting long-term climate and sustainability goals.

Conclusion

The GEC Model is a comprehensive, data-driven framework that supports the IEA in providing long-term energy and climate outlooks. It enables the analysis of policy, technology, and economic trends, and is instrumental in identifying the pathways required to achieve net-zero emissions and sustainable development goals. The model is continuously updated and refined to reflect the latest global energy market dynamics and technological advancements.

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