2024年全球能源与气候模型_137页_7mb

Summary of the Global Energy and Climate (GEC) Model Documentation - 2024

Core Content

The Global Energy and Climate (GEC) Model is the principal tool used by the International Energy Agency (IEA) to generate detailed, long-term energy and climate scenarios. It integrates the strengths of the World Energy Model (WEM) and Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) models, providing a comprehensive, bottom-up partial-optimisation framework for analysing the global energy system. The GEC Model covers 27 regions and is used to examine trends in energy demand, supply, transformation, emissions, investment, and policy impacts across all energy sectors.

Main Scenarios

1. Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS)

• Definition: Reflects current policy settings and planned manufacturing capacities for clean energy technologies as of August 2024.
• Objective: Provides a benchmark to assess the potential achievements and limitations of recent energy and climate policies.
• Key Assumptions:
  • Includes policies and measures that are in place or under development.
  • Does not assume future policy strengthening or weakening unless there is specific evidence.
  • Takes into account industry actions and impacts on market uptake.
• Outcome: Highlights the "implementation gap" between current policies and decarbonisation targets.

2. Announced Pledges Scenario (APS)

• Definition: Assumes all climate commitments, including NDCs and net zero targets, are met fully and on time.
• Objective: Shows how close current pledges are to achieving the 1.5°C temperature goal and universal energy access.
• Key Assumptions:
  • Policies are fully implemented.
  • Non-policy assumptions (population, economic growth) are the same as in STEPS.
• Outcome: Highlights the "ambition gap" between current pledges and the goals of the Paris Agreement.

3. Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE Scenario)

• Definition: A normative scenario outlining a pathway for the global energy sector to achieve net zero CO₂ emissions by 2050.
• Objective: Shows what is needed across sectors and by when to achieve net zero emissions and meet other SDGs, such as universal energy access.
• Key Assumptions:
  • No reliance on emissions reductions from outside the energy sector.
  • Achieves universal access to electricity and clean cooking by 2030.
  • Incorporates climate science and SDG targets.
• Outcome:
  • Requires fair and effective global cooperation.
  • Highlights the importance of policies and incentives to ensure an orderly transition.
  • Emphasises the need for a broad range of clean technologies, including renewables, hydrogen, and battery storage.
  • Recognises the role of critical minerals and the need for global collaboration in their supply chains.

Key Components of the GEC Model

• End-use sectors: Industry, transport, buildings, and agriculture are modelled with detailed bottom-up approaches.
• Electricity generation and transformation: Includes modules for renewables, hydrogen, battery storage, and the value-adjusted Levelised Cost of Electricity (LCOE).
• Energy supply: Covers fossil fuels (oil, natural gas, coal) and renewable resources.
• Critical minerals: Assesses demand and supply projections for essential materials in clean energy technologies.
• Emissions: Includes CO₂, methane (CH₄), and other non-CO₂ greenhouse gas emissions, along with air pollution and temperature impacts.
• Investment: Analyses investment requirements in fuel supply, power generation, and demand-side energy technologies.
• Energy access: Focuses on modern energy access, including electricity and clean cooking, and its implications for emissions and investments.
• Employment: Examines the impact of energy sector changes on employment across different skill levels and occupations.

Cross-cutting Inputs and Assumptions

• Population: Assumptions are based on regional data and trends.
• Macroeconomic: GDP growth projections are used to model energy demand and investment.
• Prices: Fossil fuel and clean energy prices are modelled across scenarios.
• Policies: A comprehensive database of current and announced policies is available.
• Techno-economic inputs: Includes technology costs, learning curves, and deployment rates.

Recent Developments in 2024

• Manufacturing and trade: Improved methodologies for projecting demand and trade flows in key sectors like steel, aluminium, and ammonia.
• Sensitivity analyses: Introduced to explore how variations in deployment rates affect energy demand and emissions outcomes.
• Policies and measures: Fully available in the Policies and Measures Database (IEA, 2024c).

Integration with Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

• The NZE Scenario integrates three SDGs:
  • SDG 7.1: Universal access to modern energy services by 2030.
  • SDG 3.9: Reduction of health impacts from air pollution.
  • SDG 13: Action to tackle climate change.
• The scenario explores the synergies and trade-offs between energy efficiency, renewable energy, and clean cooking, highlighting the importance of an integrated approach.

Conclusion

The GEC Model is a highly data-intensive, comprehensive tool that enables the IEA to provide detailed, long-term scenarios for the global energy system. It explores the role of policy, technology, and economic factors in shaping future energy outcomes, with a focus on achieving net zero emissions by 2050 while meeting other sustainable development goals. The model is continuously updated and refined to reflect the latest data and policy developments.