2024全球能源与气候模型报告英文版-国际能源署IEA_137页_9mb

Global Energy and Climate Model (GEC Model) Summary

Core Content

The Global Energy and Climate (GEC) Model is the IEA's principal tool for generating long-term, sector-by-sector and region-by-region energy scenarios. It combines the strengths of the World Energy Model (WEM) and Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) models to offer a comprehensive, bottom-up partial-optimisation framework. The model is designed to assess the future of the global energy system, including its environmental impacts, policy implications, technological changes, investment needs, and the role of energy access and employment.

Main Scenarios

The GEC Model is used to explore three key scenarios that reflect different levels of ambition and policy implementation:

1. Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS)

• Definition: Reflects current policy settings as of August 2024, including both implemented and under-development policies, and planned clean energy manufacturing capacities.
• Objective: Provides a benchmark to evaluate the potential and limitations of current energy and climate policies. Highlights the "implementation gap" between stated goals and actual outcomes.
• Key Features:
  • Takes into account existing and planned policies.
  • Does not assume future policy strengthening or weakening.
  • Includes industry action and infrastructure impacts beyond government policies.

2. Announced Pledges Scenario (APS)

• Definition: Assumes all climate commitments, including NDCs and net zero targets, will be fully implemented by 2030 and beyond.
• Objective: Demonstrates how close current pledges are to achieving the 1.5°C temperature target and universal energy access. Highlights the "ambition gap" compared to the NZE Scenario.
• Key Features:
  • Includes all national and industry climate pledges.
  • Assumes full and timely implementation of targets.
  • Considers the impact of these pledges on global demand and energy trade.

3. Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE Scenario)

• Definition: A normative scenario that outlines a pathway for the global energy sector to achieve net zero CO₂ emissions by 2050, without relying on emissions reductions from outside the energy sector.
• Objective: Shows what is needed across the main sectors to meet net zero emissions and other SDGs such as universal energy access and improved air quality.
• Key Features:
  • Aligns with the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report on limiting temperature rise to 1.5°C with at least 50% probability.
  • Requires global cooperation and coordinated policies.
  • Focuses on clean energy technologies with short project lead times, such as renewables.
  • Acknowledges the importance of energy security and minimising market volatility.

Key Inputs and Assumptions

The GEC Model incorporates various cross-cutting inputs and assumptions, including:

• Population: Assumptions are made about population growth in each region.
• Macroeconomic: GDP growth projections are used to inform energy demand and investment.
• Prices: Fossil fuel and clean energy prices are modelled based on market dynamics.
• Policies: The model integrates a wide range of policies, including energy efficiency standards, pricing regimes, and sustainability commitments.
• Techno-economic: Technological readiness, costs, and learning curves are central to the model's projections.

End-use Sectors

The GEC Model covers four main end-use sectors:

1. Industry

• Includes detailed analysis of energy service and material demand.
• Improved representation of recycling processes for plastics and paper.
• Updated levelised cost of production for steel, cement, and aluminium.
• Incorporates bottom-up signals from clean technology and critical mineral production.

2. Transport

• A new bottom-up model for shipping activity was developed to ensure consistency with energy and clean technology trade projections.
• Includes methodologies for vehicle ownership, scrappage curves, and refuelling infrastructure costs.
• Examines efficiency cost curves and the impact of vehicle types on emissions.

3. Buildings

• Models energy demand, efficiency improvements, and heating options.
• Considers thermosensitivity and hourly load curves for different regions.

4. Electricity Demand and Response

• Analyzes hourly electricity demand and demand-side response mechanisms.
• Uses load-duration curves and merit order analysis to assess power generation strategies.
• Includes battery storage and renewable energy modules.

Energy Transformation and Supply

The model includes detailed analysis of:

• Electricity Generation: Focuses on renewable energy and hydrogen technologies.
• Heat Production: Examines the role of combined heat and power systems.
• Energy Supply: Covers fossil fuel exploration, extraction, trade, and renewable energy resource availability.
• Critical Minerals: Assesses demand and supply projections for minerals essential to clean energy technologies.

Emissions and Environmental Impact

• CO₂ Emissions: Includes emissions from fuel combustion, industrial processes, and flaring.
• Methane Emissions: Analyzes emissions from fossil fuel operations and energy transformation.
• Other Greenhouse Gases: Includes CH₄ and N₂O emissions from energy use.
• Air Pollution: Assesses local pollutants and their impact on health.
• Global Temperature Impact: Considers long-term temperature outcomes based on emission trajectories.

Investment and Employment

• Investment: Analyzes investment requirements in fuel supply, power generation, and end-use sectors.
• Financing: Considers the financial mechanisms required to support these investments.
• Employment: Examines the impact of energy system evolution on employment, including skill levels and sectoral shifts.

Energy Access and Affordability

• Modern Energy Access: Defines and assesses trends in access to electricity and clean cooking.
• Affordability: Analyzes household energy expenditures and the role of government spending in making energy affordable.

Key Features and Methodology

• The GEC Model is data-intensive, drawing from IEA databases and external sources.
• It includes sensitivity analyses to explore uncertainties in energy demand and emissions.
• Scenario building is integrated, with a focus on whole-system approaches to ensure coherence across sectors and regions.
• The model supports policy analysis, technological forecasting, and investment planning.

Conclusion

The GEC Model provides a robust and flexible framework for understanding the future of the global energy system. By exploring multiple scenarios, it highlights the importance of government policies, technological innovation, and global cooperation in achieving climate goals and energy sustainability. The model's integration of economic, environmental, and social factors makes it a critical tool for policymakers, researchers, and stakeholders in the energy sector.