2024-10-27-IEA-国际能源署年全球能源和气候模型（英）_137页_8mb

According to the report, the IEA adopted a hybrid modelling approach in the GEC Model, combining the strengths of bottom-up and large-scale simulation models to analyze future energy trends. The model is designed to evaluate energy supply, demand, environmental impacts, and policy effects across various scenarios and technologies.

The GEC scenarios are built on different assumptions and explore possible futures, as follows:

1. Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS): Reflects current policies and their implementation.
2. Announced Pledges Scenario (APS): Assumes governments fully implement emissions reduction targets.
3. Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE): Aims to achieve net zero emissions by 2050.

Key cross-cutting inputs include population growth, economic development, prices, policies, and technological advancements. These factors influence the scenarios.

For electricity generation, the model calculates capacity additions, generation volumes, and transmission needs. It employs the value-adjusted levelised cost of electricity (VALCOE) to assess competitiveness.

The building model includes improved technologies for heating, cooling, and lighting, along with behavioral changes. Road transport emphasizes electrification and alternative fuels. Industry models incorporate material efficiency and policy impacts.

Other aspects include hydrogen and ammonia deployment, critical minerals supply, and investments across sectors. Energy access assessments project universal access by 2030, while employment and government spending analyses provide additional socio-economic perspectives.

Overall, the GEC Model offers a comprehensive analysis of global energy transitions, supporting policy decisions and investment strategies.