20140526-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_11页_573kb

报告摘要

Regional Oil & Gas Summary - 26 May 2014

Core Content Overview

This summary highlights key developments in the regional oil and gas market as of 26 May 2014, including price movements, company news, and analyst reports. It covers major price changes, geopolitical issues, operational updates, and valuation comparisons across different regions.

Major Oil & Gas Price Movements

Henry Hub (U.S.): Increased by 1.1% to $4.41/MMBtu.
WTI (U.S.): Increased by 0.6% to $104.35/bbl.
Crude Oil (Brent): Closed at $110.54/bbl, with a 0.18% increase in the last day.
Dubai Fateh Spot: Closed at $106.83/bbl, with a slight decrease of 0.01%.
China Daqing Spot: Closed at $110.89/bbl, with a 0.06% increase.
LNG Northeast Asia CFR: Closed at $14.40/MMBtu, with no change.
Singapore 92 RON Spot: Closed at $118.14/bbl, with a 0.18% increase.
Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot: Closed at $122.18/bbl, with a 0.24% decrease.
3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot: Closed at $619.19/mt, with a 1.54% increase.
Gold: Closed at $1,292.61/Oz, with a 1.49% decrease.
USD-CNY Exchange Rate: Closed at 6.24, with no change.
DJI: Closed at 16,606.27, with a 63.19 increase.
S&P 500: Closed at 1,900.53, with an 8.04 increase.

Key News Headlines

China

Gasoline and Diesel Price Hike: China raised gasoline and diesel prices by CNY70 per tonne, effective May 24, 2014.
Gas Payment to Russia: China is set to wire USD25b as a down payment for a 30-year gas supply deal with Russia.
CNOOC Drilling in South China Sea: CNOOC remains committed to drilling despite disputes with Vietnam.
Jet Kerosene Imports: China's jet kerosene import volume fell by 30% YoY YTD, while domestic output rose by 22%.
Gasoline Exports: China's gasoline exports dropped by 5% YoY YTD.
CNPC in Chad: CNPC's operations in Chad are on hold due to environmental concerns.

Tanzania

CNOOC and Gazprom: Both companies are among the first to submit bids for developing Tanzania's gas resources.

Japan

Refining Capacity Reduction: Japan is likely to further reduce its refining capacity by 2018 due to regulatory changes.

Angola

LNG Leak Incident: A major gas leak at an Angola LNG plant raised safety concerns.

Analyst Reports

Yard Holdings

Rating: BUY
Target Price: SGD1.27
Performance: Secured two new contracts totaling NOK1.3b, with one contract exceeding NOK1b.
YTD Order Win: NOK6.8b, forming 53% of FY14E forecasts.
Valuation: Beneficiary of OSV upcycle; reiterate BUY with SGD1.27 TP based on 1.4x FY15E P/BV.

Perdana Petroleum

Rating: BUY
Target Price: MYR2.55
Performance: 1Q14 net profit within forecasts, with steady rise in utilisation rates.
Valuation: Preferred OSV pick due to visible earnings growth and improving financials.
Target Price: MYR2.55 based on 15x FY15 PER.

Singapore Offshore & Marine

Rating: NEUTRAL
Performance: Uninspiring first quarter with only one positive earnings surprise.
Valuation: Maintain NEUTRAL due to near-term challenges like budget cuts and cost hikes.

UMW Oil & Gas Corporation

Rating: BUY
Target Price: MYR3.90
Performance: 1Q14 net profit of MYR53m tracks expectations.
Valuation: Reiterate BUY with TP unchanged at MYR5.15 based on 23x 2015PER.

Asian Oil & Gas Valuation Comparison

Company	Ticker	KE Rating	Price	Target Price	Mkt Cap (USD)	90D T/O (USD)	P/E (2013/2014E)	EV/EBITDA (2013/2014E)	RoE %	P/B (X)	Yield %
PetroChina - H	857 HK	NR	9.45	NR	224.4	95.9	10.5 / 10.5	6.1 / 5.4	11.8	1.2	4.3
Sinopec - H	386 HK	NR	7.09	NR	98.1	109.4	9.9 / 9.1	5.4 / 4.8	12.2	1.1	4.3
CNOOC LTD	883 HK	NR	13.62	NR	78.4	100.0	8.6 / 8.6	3.9 / 3.8	17.3	1.4	4.2
ONGC	ONGC IN	NR	407.95	NR	59.8	30.8	14.4 / 13.3	7.9 / 6.1	16.8	2.3	2.3
Reliance Industries	RIL IN	NR	1,127.45	NR	62.4	73.8	15.9 / 13.7	13.0 / 10.4	11.9	1.8	0.8
Cairn India	CAIR IN	buy	348.75	443.00	11.4	15.6	5.5 / 4.8	3.7 / 3.2	25.1	1.4	3.3
BPCL	BPCL IN	NR	556.20	NR	6.9	14.1	21.4 / 18.5	8.3 / 9.5	11.5	2.4	2.0
HPCL	HPCL IN	NR	434.70	NR	2.5	10.4	29.4 / 15.9	13.6 / 11.4	3.7	1.1	2.0

Asian Oil Service Valuation Comparison

Company	Ticker	KE Rating	Price	Target Price	Mkt Cap (USD)	90D T/O (USD)	P/E (2013/2014E)	EV/EBITDA (2013/2014E)	RoE %	P/B (X)	Yield %
Anton Oilfield Services	3337 HK	NR	6.02	NR	1.7	5.7	26.8 / 23.4	13.3 / 10.8	18.0	1.0	3.3
China Oilfield Services-H	2883 HK	NR	19.32	NR	12.4	24.9	10.2 / 10.0	7.8 / 7.1	19.3	1.8	2.8
Perdana Petroleum	PETR MK	buy	1.81	2.55	0.4	0.9	20.9 / 13.6	10.6 / 10.6	12.1	2.3	0.0
UMW O&G	UMWOG MK	buy	4.00	5.15	2.7	4.3	35.1 / 30.8	18.4 / 18.9	12.4	3.1	0.2
Yinson	YNS MK	buy	5.14	6.44	0.8	0.9	46.6 / 23.4	53.3 / 17.2	15.4	5.7	0.3
Ezion	EZI SP	buy	2.19	2.70	2.3	12.6	10.7 / 13.2	10.8 / 15.2	28.6	3.0	0.0
Mermaid Maritime	MMT SP	buy	0.47	0.59	0.5	1.0	19.1 / 9.8	n.a. / 6.7	3.4	1.0	0.2
Nam Cheong	NCL SP	buy	0.38	0.45	0.6	1.7	9.7 / 8.3	8.6 / 8.4	26.9	2.2	1.3
Asian Oil & Gas Average	-	-	-	-	-	-	12.6 / 11.7	7.6 / 6.5	13.2	1.5	3.4

Key Points

Price Trends: Prices for crude oil and LNG were mixed, with some showing slight increases and others decreases.
China's Market Actions: China increased fuel prices, made a large gas payment to Russia, and continued its offshore drilling despite geopolitical tensions.
Operational Updates: Several companies faced operational challenges, including CNPC in Chad and Japan's refining capacity reduction.
Analyst Recommendations: Multiple companies in the region received BUY ratings, with some showing potential for growth and improvement in financials.
Valuation Insights: Valuation metrics like P/E and EV/EBITDA show varying levels of performance and market expectations.

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