20160114-USDA-Rice_Outlook_January_2016_24页_991kb

报告摘要

2015/16 Rice Outlook Summary

Core Content Overview

The Economic Research Service (ERS) provides an outlook on U.S. and global rice production, trade, and prices for the 2015/16 crop year. Key changes and forecasts are reported, with the next release scheduled for Feb. 11, 2016, and the Rice Chart Gallery to be updated on Jan. 19, 2016. The report is approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board.

U.S. Rice Outlook

Production Forecast

The U.S. 2015/16 rice crop was raised by 1 million cwt to 192.3 million cwt, a 1% increase from the previous forecast.
Long-grain production increased by 0.7 million cwt to 133.0 million cwt, a 18% decline from the previous year.
Medium- and short-grain production increased by 0.9 million cwt to 59.3 million cwt, almost unchanged from the previous year.
Arkansas accounted for more than half of the 29.9 million cwt decline in production, due to both reduced plantings and lower yields.
California had the smallest crop since 1992/93, with 37.4 million cwt produced, a 1% drop from the previous year.

Supplies and Stocks

Total U.S. rice supply was raised to 264.9 million cwt, 5% below the previous year.
Ending stocks increased by 3.1 million cwt to 41.9 million cwt, still 14% below the previous year.
Long-grain ending stocks rose to 23.0 million cwt, a 13% drop from the previous year.
Medium- and short-grain ending stocks increased to 17.0 million cwt, a 16% drop from the previous year's high.
December 1, 2015 stocks were 154.0 million cwt, 7% below the previous year, with Arkansas accounting for almost half of the reported stocks.

Exports and Imports

U.S. rice exports for 2015/16 were raised to 102.0 million cwt, a 2% increase from the previous year.
U.S. rice imports were lowered to 24.0 million cwt, a 3% decrease from the previous year.
Long-grain imports were raised to 20.5 million cwt, while medium- and short-grain imports increased slightly to 3.5 million cwt.
Export markets included Latin America, Northeast Asia, Middle East, and Canada.

Prices

Season-average farm prices (SAFP) for both long-grain and medium- and short-grain rice were lower than the previous year.
Long-grain SAFP was projected at $11.00-$12.00 per cwt, a 50-cent drop from the previous forecast.
Medium- and short-grain SAFP was projected at $16.60-$17.60 per cwt, a 40-cent drop from the previous forecast.
California had the lowest medium- and short-grain price since August 2013, at $18.60 per cwt.
Southern medium- and short-grain prices were $11.90 per cwt, the lowest since August 2013.

Global Rice Outlook

Production Forecast

Global rice production for 2015/16 was raised by 0.8 million tons to 470.1 million tons, a 2% decline from the previous year.
Production increases were reported for China, European Union, Mali, Philippines, and U.S..
Thailand accounted for more than half of the global area decline.

Consumption and Ending Stocks

Global rice consumption was projected at a record 484.3 million tons, 2.4 million tons higher than the previous year.
Global ending stocks were forecast to decline 14% to 89.7 million tons, the lowest since 2007/08.
Stocks-to-use ratio was forecast at 18.5%, down from 21.6% from the previous year.

Trade Forecast

Global rice trade for 2016 was raised to 42.1 million tons, a 2% increase from the previous forecast, and the second highest on record.
Export forecasts were raised for Pakistan, Thailand, U.S., and Vietnam.
Import forecasts were raised for Indonesia and Philippines, while Cote d'Ivoire, EU, Nigeria, and Sri Lanka saw reduced imports.

Regional Highlights

China is the largest producer, consumer, and importer of rice, with a record production of 145.7 million tons.
Philippines had a 1.5 million ton production increase due to reduced crop losses from Typhoon Koppu.
Mali saw a 13% increase in production, driven by good rains, new varieties, and more fertilizer use.
Italy is the largest producer in the EU, with a 0.2 million ton increase in production.
Guyana had a record production of 684,000 tons, with rice production more than doubling over the past decade.
Thailand and Vietnam are expected to be the largest exporters in 2016, with Thailand increasing exports by 12%.

Key Takeaways

U.S. production was 1% higher than the previous forecast but 13% lower than the previous year.
U.S. exports increased by 4.0 million cwt, driven by record shipments, competitive pricing, and strong demand.
Global production declined by 2%, with Asia and North America contributing the most to the decline.
Global consumption increased by 0.4 million tons, with China responsible for over 90% of the increase.
Global ending stocks fell to 89.7 million tons, the lowest since 2007/08, due to consumption exceeding production for the third consecutive year.
Prices for both long-grain and medium- and short-grain rice were lower than the previous year, with California and Southern U.S. seeing the largest declines.