20240626-大越期货-大豆_豆粕早报_32页_1mb

大豆&豆粕早报（2024-06-26）

一、摘要

本报告为期货行情分析，综合基本面、基差、库存、资金流向及宏观风险，对大豆和豆粕短期走势进行展望。分析认为，美豆价格震荡回落将抑制市场情绪，国内供需博弈下，豆粕和大豆维持区间震荡，需密切关注天气、进口节奏及库存消耗情况。

二、主要内容

✸ 豆粕分析

主要逻辑支撑：

1. 基本面偏空：美豆震荡下行，国内库存高企（9677万吨，环比降2.72%），豆粕库存压力大。
2. 盘面信号：价格处于20日均线下方，主力持仓空单增加，资金总体流入偏空。
3. 短期支撑因素：国内6月需求环比回升，美豆天气短期仍有扰动。
4. 展利空因素：巴西进口大豆成本下降，国内油厂开机率提升导致豆粕供给增加。

操作建议：豆粕M2409区间震荡，建议日内3280-3340高抛低吸，期权暂观望。

✸ 大豆分析

主要逻辑支撑：

1. 基本面偏空：国产大豆产量超预期，进口大豆到港量进入旺季。
2. 盘面信号：价格全线承压，主力多单增幅已现，但累库预期压制。
3. 短期支撑因素：美豆成本仍高于预期。
4. 主要利空因素：巴西丰产预期下，中期基本面承压；人民币汇率波动影响进口成本。

操作建议：豆一A2409区间整理，操作建议观望，期权谨慎参与。

三、市场数据整理

存

注显著单趋势：

• 豆粕：6月17日-25日仓单持续小幅下降。
• 大豆：6月下旬仓单明显压缩，对应进口节奏放缓。

四、主要结论与风险识别

1. 短期震荡节奏取决于美豆反弹预期及国内库存消化进度。
2. 下行压力来自巴西产量兑现、人民币走强及进口大豆优势扩大。
3. 上行风险在于全球极端天气碰频、地缘冲突持续超预期。
4. 政策变化（如关税调整）亦为重要扰动因素

```英语翻译如下：

Translation English:

# Soybean & SBM Early Report (2024-06-26)

## Date summary
This report provides trade analysis and a comprehensive view of fundamental factors, price basis, inventory, market position, and key risks for soybeans and SBM. The overall outlook points to a sideways trading pattern amidst concerns about U.S. soy produces and ample supply inventories in China.

## Core contents

### ✸ SBM Analysis
Key Drivers:
1. Market fundamentals were bearish due to declining U.S. prices and high domestic inventory (9677kt, down by 2.72% from previous week).
2. Technical indicators showed key support zones above current price levels, with price moving below 20-day moving average.
3. Strong buying interest from funds increases near-term demand for short-cover positions slightly.
4. Concerns about Brazilian ample supply remains market drags, while China domestic consumption shows slight improvement.

Trading Strategy: M2409 sticky around 3280-3340 range until key news flow such as USDA July report or Chinese import data comes out. Options: Not recommended.

### ✸ Soybean Analysis
Key Themes:
1. Market facing supply surplus pressure from Brazilian record production estimates.
2. Despite tighter export sales recently, total volume remains modest compared to last year.
3. Chinese import demand continues shifting from Brazil but doesn't change overall ample supply picture immediately.

View: Short-term sideways to lower until confirmation that rain deficits in U.S. Midwest restrict production enough to reverse sentiment.