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Summary of Feed Outlook (FDS-17f) - June 13, 2017

Core Content

The Feed Outlook report from the Economic Research Service (ERS) provides an analysis of U.S. and global coarse grain supply, demand, and price projections for the 2016/17 and 2017/18 marketing years. The report highlights key changes in production, use, trade, and ending stocks, as well as the impact of weather and market conditions on these factors.

Main Points

U.S. Corn Outlook

• 2016/17 Season-Average Price: Reduced by $0.05 per bushel to $3.35, with the price range now $3.25–$3.35.
• Feed and Residual Use (2017/18): Projected at 147.5 million metric tons, up 0.6 million from the previous month but 3.3 million below the previous year.
• Grain Consuming Animal Units (GCAU): Increased to 97.3 million units, up 0.7 million from last month and 1.3 million from last year.
• Feed and Residual per GCAU: Projected at 1.52 tons, 0.05 tons lower than last year's 1.57 tons.
• Planting Progress (as of June 4): 96% of the U.S. corn crop planted in major producing states, 1% below the 5-year average and last year.
• Corn Emergence: 86% complete in major producing states, also 1% below the 5-year average.

Sorghum Outlook

• 2016/17 Use for Ethanol: Reduced by 5 million bushels due to lower grind for ethanol.
• Sorghum Ending Stocks (2016/17): Raised by 5 million bushels to 52.9 million, with 28.9 million projected for 2017/18.
• Sorghum Production: No changes in supply projections this month.

Barley Outlook

• 2017/18 Season-Average Price: Increased by $0.30 per bushel to $5.15, with the range now $4.85–$5.45.
• 2016/17 Barley Imports: Reduced by 2 million bushels, leading to ending stocks of 93.4 million bushels.
• 2017/18 Barley Ending Stocks: Projected at 74.4 million bushels, with U.S. stocks slightly adjusted downward.

Oats Outlook

• 2016/17 Oats Imports: Reduced by 4 million bushels, leading to ending stocks of 41.6 million bushels.
• 2017/18 Oats Ending Stocks: Projected at 36.6 million bushels.
• Oats Planting and Emergence: 96% planted and 98% emerged in major producing states as of June 4, ahead of the 5-year average.

Global Coarse Grain Outlook

Production

• World Coarse Grain Production (2017/18): Projected at 1,310.3 million tons, 1.5 million tons lower than last month.
• 2016/17 Production: Revised upward by 2.0 million tons, driven by Brazil's second-crop corn and South Africa's record corn harvest.
• Key Producers:
  • EU and Canada: Projected lower production due to reduced corn area and yields.
  • Ukraine and Turkey: Projected higher production, offsetting the declines.
  • Brazil: 2016/17 corn production increased to a record 97.0 million tons, 30 million tons above 2015/16 due to favorable weather.
  • South Africa: 2016/17 corn production reached a record 16.4 million tons, supported by improved cultivation practices and favorable conditions.

Use

• World Coarse Grain Use (2016/17): Increased by 1.1 million tons to 1,348.9 million tons.
• World Coarse Grain Use (2017/18): Projected to decrease by 0.4 million tons to 1,349.5 million tons.
• Changes in Use:
  • Increased corn industrial use in Brazil.
  • Lower barley and corn feed use in Russia due to expected higher exports and lower domestic availability.

Trade

• Global Corn Trade (2017/18): Increased by 1.0 million tons to 150.7 million tons, driven by EU import demand.
• EU Corn Imports: Projected up 1.0 million tons.
• Ukraine and Russia: Expected to increase corn exports by 0.5 million tons each.
• U.S. Corn Exports (2016/17): Forecast unchanged at 56.0 million tons, with 2.225 billion bushels for the September-August marketing year.
• U.S. Export Trends: Slowing due to increased competition from Southern Hemisphere producers.

Ending Stocks

• World Coarse Grain Ending Stocks (2017/18): Reduced by 0.4 million tons to 221.0 million tons.
• Key Changes:
  • Canadian corn and oats stocks reduced.
  • Turkish and Ukrainian corn stocks increased.
• U.S. Corn Ending Stocks: Forecast at 194.3 million tons, mainly reflecting the Canadian reduction.

Additional Notes

• NASS Surveys: The June 2017 surveys will influence the July 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE).
• Data Sources: Includes the Feed Grains Database, WASDE, and World Agricultural Outlook Board.
• Contact Information:
  • Tom Capehart (Domestic): (202)-694-5313, tcapehart@ers.usda.gov
  • Olga Liefert (International): (202)-694-5155, oliefert@ers.usda.gov
• Subscription: Available via USDA's email notification service or through the ERS website.

Key Figures and Visuals

• Figure 1: U.S. corn utilization in billion bushels.
• Figure 2: U.S. corn feed and residual use.
• Figure 3: U.S. fuel ethanol exports.
• Figure 4: U.S. corn for ethanol use by quarter.
• Figure 5: Monthly corn prices in Central Illinois and Louisiana Gulf.
• Figure 6: U.S. dried distillers grains with solubles exports.
• Figure 7: U.S. corn gluten meal exports.
• Figure 8: U.S. corn gluten feed exports.
• Figure 9: U.S. corn oil exports.
• Figure 10: U.S. corn ending stocks changes.
• Figure 11: U.S. sorghum exports.
• Map B: U.S. feed grains supply and disappearance.
• Map C: U.S. corn ending stocks changes.

Conclusion

The report outlines a slightly lower U.S. corn price for the 2016/17 crop, with global coarse grain production showing a small decline in 2017/18 but increased in 2016/17 due to strong performance in Brazil and South Africa. The U.S. feed and residual use for the 2017/18 crop is slightly higher than the previous month, while animal units are up, indicating continued demand for grain in the livestock sector. International trade is expected to increase, especially in the EU, with Ukraine and Russia poised to benefit. Ending stocks are generally reduced, with U.S. stocks adjusted based on changes in imports and domestic use.