20240126-中国银河-宏观专题报告_地方两会观察-从地方两会看经济增长目标设定_7页_683kb

Summary of China's Economic Outlook from 2024 Local Two Sessions

• National GDP Target for 2024: Expected to be approximately 5%, based on historical patterns and data from major provinces like Beijing, which closely aligns with the national trend. The weighted average of 27 provinces' 2024 growth projections, using 2022 weights, suggests a rate of 5.2%, with adjustments for past errors.

• Province Performance in 2023 GDP Targets: About half of the 27 reporting provinces met or exceeded their 2023 growth goals, with Shandong and Zhejiang achieving 6% growth (actual completion rates of 120%), and Jiangsu at 116%. Below-target performers included Guangdong (96% completion), Jiangxi, Guangxi, and Heilongjiang, which had far lower actual growth. Hunan's GDP crossed the 5 trillion yuan threshold, expanding the number of provinces in this league to 9, with key economic indicators driven by large states like Guangdong and Jiangsu.

• Economic Giants and High-Quality Development: Leading provinces like Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Shandong continue to shoulder growth responsibilities, with adjustments in 2024 targets (e.g., Jiangsu and Zhejiang raised their goals). Emphasis on quality development is evident through increased focus on innovation, environmental protection, and sustainable indicators, with most regions setting 2024 targets at or above 5%, reflecting a shift from purely quantitative growth.

• 2024 Target Adjustments: Many provinces reduced their 2024 growth outlooks due to fading pandemic-related supports, while some like Beijing, Tianjin, and others increased targets. This reflects a realistic assessment of post-crisis economic factors, with leaders attributing changes to one-time events from 2023.