2024-12-08-世界银行-欧盟碳边界调整机制实施对北马其顿的影响（英）_19页_764kb

报告摘要

Analysis and Summary

1. Policy Context
The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is introduced to address carbon leakage, where emissions are shifted to countries with less stringent climate policies. This is driven by global climate commitments, such as the Paris Agreement, and the EU's goal of climate neutrality by 2050. The CBAM offsets potential disadvantages faced by sectors like iron and steel and closes gaps left by the EU ETS, the EU's emissions trading system.

2. CBAM Regulation
CBAM imposes a carbon price on certain imports from third countries based on embedded emissions, starting fully from 2026. It operates through quarterly declarations of embedded emissions by EU importers, offsetting these emissions equivalent to the EU ETS price. The mechanism doesn't restrict trade but adjusts the competitive playing field by charging fees to non-participating countries like North Macedonia.

3. Implications for North Macedonia
The CBAM causes increased costs and export declines in high-emission sectors such as cement, iron and steel, and aluminum. Model projections show an aggregate economic output decline of about 0.3%, job losses of roughly 1,500, and reduced exports. Sector-specific impacts include high losses in aluminum and steel, up to 2% of output, driven by higher carbon intensity. These effects ripple through supply chains, affecting services and transportation, and are worsened by North Macedonia's low carbon pricing and energy-intensive tariffs.

4. Recommendations
To mitigate negative impacts, North Macedonia should: