联合国贸易发展委员会-欧盟碳边界调整机制：对发展中国家的影响（英）-2021.7_31页_20mb

Summary of the European Union Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and Its Implications for Developing Countries

Core Content

The European Union (EU) is considering the introduction of a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) as part of its Green Deal, aiming to reduce carbon leakage and ensure fair competition for European industries in decarbonizing their production processes. The CBAM is designed to compensate for differences in carbon prices between domestic and imported goods, aligning with WTO rules and free trade agreements to avoid discrimination.

Main Features of the CBAM

• Purpose: To prevent carbon leakage by charging imports based on their carbon content and to level the playing field for European industries.
• Scope: Initially targeting energy-intensive sectors such as cement, steel, aluminium, oil refinery, paper, glass, chemical, and fertiliser industries, which account for 94% of industrial CO₂ emissions in the EU.
• Exemptions:
  • Non-EU ETS participants (Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway) and Switzerland are likely to be exempt due to their participation in or alignment with the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS).
  • Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS) may receive special treatment to avoid penalizing their exports.

Potential Effects of the CBAM

CO₂ Emissions Effects

• The CBAM is expected to help reduce CO₂ emissions both within and outside the EU.
• It will shift trade patterns in favor of countries with relatively carbon-efficient production.
• However, the reduction in emissions is only a small percentage of global CO₂ emissions.

International Trade Effects

• The CBAM may lead to declines in exports from developing countries to the EU.
• Countries with less ambitious climate policies (e.g., India, Brazil, South Africa) are likely to be most affected.
• Mozambique is identified as the most exposed LDC to the CBAM.
• Russia, China, and Turkey are the most exposed countries due to their high levels of exports in energy-intensive sectors.
• The mechanism could reduce export opportunities for poorer countries, especially if they are not exempted, and limit their development through export-led growth.

Income and Employment Effects

• The CBAM could have adverse distributional effects on developing countries.
• High-emission industries in these countries may face higher import costs, reducing their competitiveness.
• Employment in energy-intensive industries may be affected, as these sectors are a significant source of income and jobs in many developing countries.

Literature Overview

• Carbon leakage reduction: Studies suggest that CBAM can reduce carbon leakage by 5–25% without policy and -5–15% with CBAM.
• CGE models (Computable General Equilibrium) show that border adjustment taxes can reduce leakage by 2–12%.
• Exempting LDCs and SIDS is seen as necessary to avoid discrimination and to support climate fairness.
• California’s cap-and-trade system is cited as a practical example, but it has not effectively reduced carbon leakage due to resource reshuffling.

Model and Scenarios

Modelling in GTAP

• The GTAP-E model is used to simulate the CBAM, incorporating CO₂ emissions data and carbon pricing.
• The model estimates embedded carbon emissions in traded goods and applies carbon border adjustment taxes accordingly.
• It considers ad valorem equivalents for the carbon price of $44 and $88 per tonne of CO₂.

Model Assumptions

• The model includes 51 economies and 20 sectors.
• Sectors included: Electricity, cement, glass, steel, aluminium, paper, petroleum and coal products, chemicals and fertilisers.
• Exemptions: The UK, Norway, and Switzerland are assumed to be exempt due to their ETS alignment or post-Brexit trade agreements.
• Carbon prices: Assumed to be $44 and $88 per tonne in the model, reflecting the EU’s historical ETS price trends.

Implications for Developing Countries

• The CBAM could disproportionately impact developing countries, especially those with high carbon intensity in their production.
• LDCs and SIDS are expected to be exempt to prevent negative effects on development.
• Revenue from CBAM could be used to support cleaner production technologies in developing countries, promoting climate fairness and inclusive trade systems.
• Free rider problem and climate fairness remain key challenges in achieving international emission reductions.

Conclusion

• The CBAM is a policy tool aimed at climate action and fair trade.
• It has the potential to reduce emissions and shift trade patterns towards carbon-efficient producers.
• However, it may create trade distortions and economic challenges for developing countries, especially LICs and LDCs.
• Flanking policies and support mechanisms are needed to ensure that the CBAM benefits all and does not undermine development.

Key Points

• CBAM is part of the EU Green Deal and aims to combat carbon leakage.
• It is WTO-compliant and non-discriminatory.
• Developing countries may face negative impacts due to high carbon intensity in their exports.
• LDCs and SIDS are likely to be exempt to ensure climate equity.
• The GTAP-E model is used to simulate CBAM effects, including trade, emissions, income, and employment.
• Revenue from CBAM could be used to support green technologies in developing countries, promoting sustainable development and fair trade.