亚开行-欧盟碳边界调整机制：对亚洲的经济影响和启示（英）-2023.11-16页_1mb

European Union Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) Economic Impact and Implications for Asia

Introduction

The CBAM is a carbon tariff proposed by the EU to support its climate goals by 2050 and prevent carbon leakage. It imposes charges on carbon-intensive imports from non-EU/NEFTA countries, starting with transitional phases and full implementation in 2026.

Key Economic Impacts of CBAM

• Climate Mitigation: Quantitative analyses suggest CBAM has a marginal effect on reducing greenhouse gas emissions but can significantly alter trade patterns, competitiveness, and income distribution.
• Global Trade Effects: CBAM may reduce carbon leakage by up to 15%, but it disproportionately harms developing economies due to higher carbon intensities and lack of carbon pricing mechanisms.
• Income Disparities: It widens the welfare gap between developed and developing economies, with potential welfare losses in regions like Asia.
• Administrative and WTO Challenges: CBAM's compatibility with WTO rules is a concern; disputes could take up to 15 months to resolve, with further adjustment periods.

Asian Exposure to CBAM

• Overall Impact: Asia's vulnerability is relatively low, with regional exports to the EU constituting a small share of GDP. However, specific sectors face risks.
• High-Risk Sectors: Iron and steel (India), fertilizer (Georgia), cement (Malaysia), and aluminum (Kazakhstan) experience significant additional costs.
• Economy-Specific Risks:
  • ** Georgia**: Highest additional cost at $8.14 per ton of CO2 for fertilizer.
  • ** India**: High exposure due to iron and steel exports, with costs under $1 per ton in most cases.
  • ** Kazakhstan**: Significant risks in aluminum and cement sectors.
• Drivers of Exposure: Proximity to EU markets, reliance on carbon-intensive exports, and statistical capacity deficiencies exacerbate risks.

Policy Implications and Recommendations for Asian Economies

• Short-Term Mitigation: Strengthen national carbon markets, upgrade export value-added (e.g., shifting to higher-value products), diversify export markets, and build technical/statistical capacity.
• Medium-Term Strategy: Invest in renewable energy, decarbonize high-emission sectors, and seek technical assistance through regional cooperation.
• Long-Term Adaptation: Enhance energy efficiency, integrate regional carbon markets, and align with EU climate standards to reduce future impacts.
• Financial and Technical Support: Engage international partners for capacity building and investment in cleaner technologies.

Potential Expansion and Broader Effects

• CBAM authority may expand to include indirect emissions and new sectors, increasing complexity. Global trade shifts could favor developed economies and strain supply chains.

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