2021-08-24-瑞士信贷集团-ESG研究_污染者的困境之评估欧盟碳边界调整机制的影响_81页_1mb

Summary of Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) Analysis

Main Points:

1. CBAM Overview:

   • The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) aims to prevent carbon leakage by imposing costs on carbon-intensive imports from countries without equivalent carbon pricing.
   • Implementation starts in 2026 initially (transitional phase) and will fully apply from 2030 onwards, reflecting the EU's commitment to decarbonization.

2. Country-Level Exposure:

   • High-Risk Countries: Russia has significant exposure due to high exports of Iron & Steel, Aluminum, and Fertilizers, with high carbon intensity (default carbon intensity is 2-3x higher than the EU benchmark).
   • Medium-Risk: China and India, with large trade values but less developed carbon pricing systems.
   • Low-Risk: European countries with stringent environmental policies and existing carbon markets.

3. Industry Impact:

   • Steel Sector: 4% of earnings at risk (base case) due to high carbon intensity in BF-BOF vs EAF processes. Companies like Bao Steel face substantial costs proportional to EBITDA.
   • Aluminum Sector: 27% and 31% carbon costs for Shandong Nanshan and OCI, respectively, significantly impacting competitiveness.
   • Fertilizers Sector: India and China have high vulnerabilities due to reliance on coal-intensive production.

4. Investment Opportunities:

   • Clean Energy: Accelerated growth in renewables, particularly in China and APAC, supported by emerging RECs (Renewable Energy Credits).
   • Circular Economy: Expansion of steel scrap usage (e.g., replacing coal), benefiting companies like Sims Metal Management.
   • Gas Switching: Beneficiaries include natural gas utilities due to increased demand from coal-to-gas transition.
   • Hydrogen Production: Green and blue hydrogen projects could increase in scope, driven by additional carbon costs.
   • Carbon Capture Storage (CCS): Growing importance for industries like cement and power generation, given uncertain and evolving policy.

5. Economic Effects:

   • CBAM will reduce the EU's trade deficits with high-emission countries and drive global industrial decarbonization.

6. Financial Implications:

   • Companies can face significant cost burdens (up to 30% of EBITDA) depending on industry exposure; quick adaptation required to minimize risks.

Key Recommendations:

• Lowest-Cost Abatement: Prioritize investments in renewables, energy efficiency, and electrification.
• Circular Economy: Focus on circular flows in material sectors to reduce carbon intensity.
• Natural Gas: Capture opportunities in gas infrastructure due to stimulated demand.
• CCUS: Evaluate projects with high carbon concentration for viability in low-carbon transition.

This report emphasizes that CBAM not only affects industries but drives global carbon pricing, changes trade routes, and creates new investment paths in clean energy and decarbonization technologies.