美中贸易全国委员会-2021年美国各州对中国的商品和服务出口报告（更新至2021年11月）（英）-18页_1mb

2021 District Export Report Summary

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of US Congressional Districts' goods and services exports to China over the past decade, highlighting the impact of trade agreements, tariffs, and the pandemic on export volumes and employment.

Main Points

Goods Exports

• 2020 Growth: US goods exports to China rebounded significantly, increasing by 18% to $123 billion, marking the second-highest level in a decade. This growth was driven by oil and gas, oilseeds and grains, and semiconductors and their components.
• 2019 Decline: Goods exports fell by 11.4% in 2019 due to steep Chinese retaliatory tariffs.
• District-Level Growth: Out of 435 districts, 278 saw growth in goods exports to China in 2020, with 72 districts experiencing growth of over $100 million.
• Top Exporting Districts:
  • Oregon 1st: $7.5 billion, up 36.2% (2019–2020), +377% (2011–2020)
  • California 17th: $2.5 billion, down 25% (2019–2020), but +52.7% (2011–2020)
  • Texas 7th: $2.0 billion, up 130.2% (2019–2020), +367% (2011–2020)
  • Texas 11th: $1.5 billion, up 132.9% (2019–2020), +449% (2011–2020)
• Tariff Exclusions: China's implementation of tariff exclusions under the Phase One trade agreement helped maintain the flow of US goods to China despite ongoing tariffs.

Services Exports

• 2019 Decline: Services exports to China fell for the first time since 2003, dropping to $54 billion, down 3% from 2018.
• Impact of Travel: The decline was largely due to a 10% drop in travel exports, including personal, business, and educational travel.
• Top Services Exports in 2019:
  1. Travel (education): $14.0 billion
  2. Travel (other personal): $9.4 billion
  3. Industrial processes: $3.7 billion
  4. Travel (business): $3.6 billion
  5. Passenger fares: $2.3 billion
• Top Services Export Markets:
  1. United Kingdom: $77.8 billion
  2. Canada: $67.1 billion
  3. Ireland: $57.5 billion
  4. China: $54.1 billion
  5. Japan: $49.0 billion
• District-Level Growth: Only 42 districts saw an increase in services exports to China in 2019, with education and shipping services being key contributors.

Exports and US Jobs

• Job Impact: Exports to China supported 916,000 jobs in 2019, down from 1.1 million in 2017 due to a decline in goods exports and plateauing services exports.
• District-Level Job Changes:
  • Job Losses: 13 districts saw job losses of over 1,000, with Washington's 2nd District losing over 20,000 jobs.
  • Job Gains: 15 districts added more than 1,000 jobs, with Oregon's 1st District supporting over 24,500 jobs.
• Sector Impact: Job losses were often tied to aerospace and automotive sectors, while agricultural and high-tech exports offered a positive outlook.

Key Information

• Phase One Agreement: The agreement between the US and China helped stabilize trade, with China instituting tariff exclusions to support its purchase commitments.
• Pandemic Recovery: China's faster recovery from the pandemic-induced slowdown contributed to the rebound in US goods exports.
• Tariff Uncertainty: With Phase One commitments expiring in 2021, the long-term sustainability of US exports to China remains uncertain.
• Regional Variations: Districts in the heartland (e.g., Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas) and high-tech hubs (e.g., Oregon) saw significant growth in exports to China.
• Education and Shipping: Education and shipping services played a crucial role in maintaining services exports, especially in districts with universities and ports.

Conclusion

Despite the challenges posed by trade tensions and the pandemic, US exports to China continued to be a vital component of the national economy, supporting hundreds of thousands of jobs. While goods exports rebounded in 2020, services exports faced a decline in 2019. The future of US-China trade depends on the continuation of tariff exclusions and the resolution of geopolitical issues.