2020美国各州对中国出口报告（英）-美中贸易全国委员会-2020.4-73页_2mb

2020 State Export Report Summary

Core Content

This report provides an overview of US goods and services exports to China over the past decade, highlighting the impact of trade tensions and tariffs on export volumes and related economic indicators such as job creation. It also details the performance of individual states and the broader implications for the US economy.

Main Points

Goods Exports to China

• Overall Decline: US goods exports to China fell to $104.8 billion in 2019, marking a 11.4% decline from 2018. This is the lowest level since 2011.
• Two-Year Contraction: Goods exports to China contracted by 18% over two years, with a 7% drop in 2018 and 11.4% in 2019.
• Slow Growth: The 16% growth in goods exports to China over the last decade is significantly lower than the 29% growth to the rest of the world.
• Top Exporters: The top US states for goods exports to China in 2019 were California, Texas, Oregon, South Carolina, and Washington.
• State-Specific Trends:
  • Washington: Exports fell sharply from $11.4 billion in 2018 to $2.8 billion in 2019, primarily due to the decline in aerospace exports.
  • Texas: Exports dropped from $16.3 billion in 2018 to $10.9 billion in 2019, mainly due to retaliatory tariffs on oil and gas.
  • South and North Carolina: Both saw growth, with South Carolina increasing by $1 billion and North Carolina by $88 million.
  • Iowa and other agricultural states: Exports rebounded slightly after retaliatory tariffs, but did not fully recover to 2012-2017 levels.
• Top Markets: China remained the third-largest goods export market for the US, behind Canada and Mexico. It was the top market for 2 states and a top-five market for 42 states in 2019.

Services Exports to China

• Plateaued Growth: Services exports to China grew at a sluggish pace in 2018, with only 1.6% growth, compared to 2.3% in 2017.
• Decade Growth: Despite the slowdown, services exports to China grew by 230% over the past decade, outpacing growth to other major markets.
• Top Exporters: The top US states for services exports to China in 2018 were California, New York, Texas, Florida, and Illinois.
• Key Sectors: The top services exports to China included travel, education, industrial processes, and management and advisory services.
• China's Position: China remained the third-largest services export market for the US, after the UK and Canada. It was a top-five market for 49 states in 2018.

Impact on US Jobs

• Job Support: Exports to China supported nearly one million jobs in the US in 2019, with over 10,000 jobs supported in 30 states.
• Job Losses: In 2018, exports to China led to the loss of over 100,000 jobs, with 24 states losing more than a thousand jobs.
• State-Specific Job Impact:
  • Illinois: Lost over 15,000 jobs due to retaliatory tariffs on agricultural products.
  • Iowa: Lost over 12,500 jobs, affecting multiple industries including agriculture and manufacturing.
  • Oregon: Added over 3,300 jobs through strong semiconductor and component exports.
  • Texas: Added 1,500 jobs, but faced a significant decline in 2019.

Trade Frictions and Future Outlook

• Trade Disputes: Tariffs and retaliatory measures have had a significant impact on export volumes and job numbers.
• Phase One Deal: If China meets its commitments to increase US goods purchases, exports could see a sharp uptick in 2020.
• Hong Kong: A major through-point for US exports to China, but exports to Hong Kong declined by 16.2% in 2019, dropping it out of the top 10.

Key Information

• Methodology: The report uses data from The Trade Partnership, US Census Bureau, USDA, and BEA. It credits agricultural exports to states where the products are grown, not just where they are shipped from.
• Data Scope: Goods exports cover 2010-2019, while services exports cover 2009-2018 due to data availability.
• State Performance: Only 19 states saw growth in exports to China in 2019, while 20 states experienced double-digit declines.
• China's Role: Despite trade frictions, China remains a critical market for US exports, supporting jobs and economic activity across the country.

Appendix: State Reports

• Alabama: Goods exports to China totaled $2.3 billion in 2019, supporting 15,500 jobs. Top goods exports included motor vehicles and resins.
• Alaska: Exports to China were relatively low, with services exports playing a more significant role in economic activity.

Conclusion

While trade tensions and tariffs have led to declines in US exports to China, the market remains vital to the US economy, supporting millions of jobs. The report underscores the importance of China as a top export destination and highlights the varying impacts across states, emphasizing the need for continued engagement and policy adjustments to mitigate negative effects.