20141126-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_36页_2mb
报告摘要
Regional Morning Notes Summary
Core Content Overview
This document provides a detailed market analysis and investment insights for various sectors in Asia, with a focus on China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Macau Gaming. It includes key updates, sector catalysts, and stock recommendations for the period ending 26 November 2014.
Main Sectors and Key Points
China: Aviation
- Key Takeaway: The aviation sector is expected to see further price-to-book (P/B) expansion in 2015 due to improved traffic and yield.
- Catalysts:
- US-China visa extension increases outbound travel convenience, benefiting Air China and China Southern Airlines.
- Weaker JPY and new US routes will boost regional and international yields.
- Low altitude reform aims to reduce flight delays and improve efficiency.
- Stock Picks:
- Air China (753 HK): BUY, Target: HK$6.70
- China Southern Airlines (1055 HK): BUY, Target: HK$4.70
- Cathay Pacific (293 HK): BUY, Target: HK$19.00
- P/B Multiples:
- Air China: A Shares 1.07x, H Shares 0.90x
- China Eastern (670 HK): A Shares 1.91x, H Shares 1.10x
- China Southern: A Shares 1.00x, H Shares 0.69x
- Risks: Global economic slowdown may reduce passenger and cargo traffic.
China: Healthcare
- Key Takeaway: The healthcare sector is expected to maintain OVERWEIGHT due to strong demand and growth potential.
- Catalysts:
- Gradual opening of drug tenders will create expansion opportunities.
- Government support for healthcare products and services remains strong.
- Enhanced R&D and M&A activities will improve product mix and competitiveness.
- Stock Picks:
- Sihuan Pharmaceutical (460 HK): BUY, Target: HK$6.90
- Sinopharm (1099 HK): BUY, Target: HK$35.80
- China TCM (570 HK): BUY, Target: HK$5.20
- Lijun Int'l (2005 HK): BUY, Target: HK$5.00
- TUL (3933 HK): BUY, Target: HK$7.60
- Risks: Lower tendering prices, government regulations, and intensified competition.
Hong Kong: Macau Gaming
- Key Takeaway: The Macau Gaming sector is expected to maintain MARKET WEIGHT as GGR is anticipated to rebound in 2015.
- Catalysts:
- New resort openings (e.g., Galaxy Macau Phase II, Macau Studio City) will support GGR growth.
- Relaxation of import policies and potential positive messages from Chinese leadership may boost sentiment.
- Stock Picks:
- Sands China (1929 HK): BUY, Target: HK$12.09
- Galaxy Entertainment (175 HK): BUY, Target: HK$70.00
- MGM China (293 HK): BUY, Target: HK$33.15
- Melco Crown (175 HK): BUY, Target: HK$78.00
- Risks: Continued anti-graft measures and volatility in VIP market.
Key Indices Performance (as of 25 Nov 2014)
| Index | Prev Close | 1D % | 1W % | 1M % | YTD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJIA | 17814.9 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 6.0 | 7.5 |
| S&P 500 | 2067.0 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 5.2 | 11.8 |
| FTSE 100 | 6731.1 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 5.4 | -0.3 |
| AS30 | 5320.9 | -0.5 | -1.2 | -1.5 | -0.6 |
| CSI 300 | 2685.6 | 1.4 | 5.7 | 12.3 | 15.3 |
| FSSTI | 3345.0 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 3.8 | 5.6 |
| HSI | 23843.9 | -0.2 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| KLCI | 1838.6 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 1.1 | -1.5 |
| KOSPI | 1980.2 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 2.8 | -1.5 |
| Nikkei 225 | 17407.6 | 0.3 | 2.6 | 13.8 | 6.9 |
| SET | 1596.8 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 3.7 | 23.0 |
| BDI | 1313 | -0.3 | 1.3 | 10.2 | -42.3 |
| CPO (RM/mt) | 2192 | -0.9 | -0.3 | 0.3 | -14.8 |
| Nymex Crude | 74 | -2.5 | -1.0 | -8.8 | -24.9 |
Top Picks (BUY)
| Company | Ticker | Current Price (HK$) | Target Price (HK$) | Potential Upside (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunac China | 1918 HK | 6.94 | 9.29 | 33.9 |
| ICBC | 1398 HK | 5.09 | 6.15 | 20.8 |
| Bank Mandiri | BMRI LJ | 10,450.00 | 12,500.00 | 19.6 |
| Gamuda | GAM MK | 5.22 | 5.50 | 5.4 |
| DBS | DBS SP | 19.83 | 22.68 | 14.4 |
| Pacific Radiance | PACRA SP | 0.96 | 1.57 | 63.5 |
| Bangkok Bank | BBL TB | 202.00 | 276.00 | 36.6 |
| IJM Corporation | IJM MK | 6.70 | 7.60 | 13.0 |
| Uzma | UZMA MK | 2.61 | 3.35 | 28.3 |
Key Assumptions (2013-2015F)
| Metric | 2013 | 2014 | 2015F |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP (% yoy) | 7.7 | 7.2 | 7.0 |
| Brent (US$/bbl) | 110 | 100 | 85 |
| CPO (US$/mt) | 736 | 725 | 765 |
| BDI | 1,219 | 1,200 | 1,300 |
Sector Catalysts
- Aviation:
- US-China visa extension boosts outbound travel.
- Free trade agreement with South Korea enhances air cargo.
- Weak yen encourages travel to Japan.
- Low altitude reform improves flight efficiency.
- Healthcare:
- Gradual opening of drug tenders provides growth opportunities.
- Government support for healthcare products and services remains strong.
- Enhanced R&D and M&A improve competitiveness.
- Macau Gaming:
- New resort openings (Galaxy Macau Phase II, Macau Studio City) support GGR growth.
- Potential positive messages from Chinese leadership.
- Relaxation of imported labor policies.
- Sequential rebound in monthly GGR numbers.
Risks
- Aviation: Global economic slowdown affecting traffic and cargo.
- Healthcare: Lower tendering prices, anti-corruption measures, and intensified competition.
- Macau Gaming: Continued anti-graft measures and VIP market volatility.
Analysts
- Aviation Sector: K Ajith, +65 6590 6627, ajith@uobkayhian.com
- Healthcare Sector: Carol Dou, +8621 5404 7225 ext.811, caroldou@uobkayhian.com
- Macau Gaming Sector: Victor Yip, +852 2826 1392, Victor.yip@uobkayhian.com.hk
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