20160822-大华继显-REGIONAL_MORNING_NOTES_36页_1mb
报告摘要
Regional Morning Notes Summary - 22 August 2016
Core Content Overview
This document provides a detailed analysis of stock performance and market outlook for several Asian regions, focusing on China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore. It includes earnings previews, company results, key indices, and investment recommendations across various sectors.
Main Points by Region
China
-
Aviation Sector:
- Air China, China Eastern Airlines (CEA), and China Southern Airlines (CSA) are expected to report a 20-57% year-over-year (yoy) growth in core net profit for 1H16.
- CEA is anticipated to show the highest growth due to strong pax traffic and load factors.
- Air China is the most efficient with lower operating costs, but faces forex losses.
- CSA is expected to report a yoy decline in profit due to weak cargo performance.
- Stock Picks: All three carriers are recommended as BUY, with target prices of HK$9.00, HK$6.00, and HK$6.40 respectively.
- PEER COMPARISON: Air China has a lower P/B ratio compared to other peers, while CEA has a higher P/B.
-
Coal Sector:
- Coal prices rebounded faster than expected, reaching Rmb480/tonne in June and July.
- The rebound is attributed to supply-side reforms and higher-than-expected power demand.
- Prices are expected to retreat in autumn and rebound again in winter due to seasonal demand and policy.
- The sector is currently valued at 0.7x P/B, which is close to historical troughs.
- Stock Picks: China Coal is recommended as BUY with a target price of HK$5.00. Other companies like China Shenhua and Yanzhou Coal are recommended as BUY and HOLD respectively.
Hong Kong
- Bank of East Asia (23 HK):
- 1H16 earnings missed due to weaker fees.
- M&A activity remains a key area to watch.
- Stock Pick: SELL with a target price of HK$23.00.
Indonesia
- Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food (AISA IJ):
- 1H16 net income grew by 30.5% yoy, driven by the rice business.
- Stock Pick: Upgraded to BUY with a target price of Rp2,550.
Malaysia
- AirAsia (AIRAKSELL):
- Share price rise was overdone.
- Stock Pick: Downgraded to SELL.
- MISC (MISC MK):
- Share price may weaken due to its high correlation with tanker rates.
- Tanker rates have fallen to multi-year lows in 3Q16.
Singapore
- Genting Singapore (GENS SP):
- Expected to recover in tandem with EBITDA recovery in 2H16.
- Stock Pick: BUY with a target price of S$0.84.
- Telecommunications:
- MyRepublic and OMGtel benefit from China's "Go Global" strategy.
Key Indices
| Index | Previous Close | 1D % | 1W % | 1M % | YTD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJIA | 18552.6 | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 6.5 |
| S&P 500 | 2183.9 | -0.1 | -0.0 | 0.4 | 6.8 |
| FTSE 100 | 6859.0 | -0.1 | -0.8 | 1.9 | 9.9 |
| AS30 | 5625.4 | 0.3 | -0.0 | 0.9 | 5.3 |
| CSI 300 | 3365.0 | 0.0 | 2.1 | 4.3 | -9.8 |
| FSSTI | 2844.0 | 0.2 | -0.8 | -3.4 | -1.3 |
| HSCEI | 9606.2 | -0.5 | 0.5 | 6.4 | -0.6 |
| HSI | 22937.2 | -0.4 | 0.7 | 4.4 | 4.7 |
| JCI | 5416.0 | -0.8 | -0.1 | 4.2 | 17.9 |
| KLCI | 1687.7 | -0.4 | 0.2 | 1.8 | -0.3 |
| KOSPI | 2056.2 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 2.3 | 4.8 |
| Nikkei 225 | 16545.8 | 0.4 | -2.2 | -0.5 | -13.1 |
| SET | 1538.8 | -0.5 | -0.9 | 2.0 | 19.5 |
| TWSE | 9034.3 | -1.0 | -1.3 | 0.2 | 8.3 |
| BDI | 683 | 0.1 | 1.8 | -4.9 | 42.9 |
| CPO (RM/ml) | 2828 | 0.3 | 9.5 | 21.6 | 28.5 |
| Brent Crude | 51 | -0.7 | 4.5 | 10.6 | 35.6 |
Top Picks
| Company | Ticker | Current Price | Target Price | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Air China | 753 HK | HK$5.98 | HK$9.00 | 50.5% |
| Ping An Insurance | 2318 HK | HK$41.05 | HK$47.00 | 14.5% |
| Ciputra Property | CTRP LJ | RM635.00 | RM960.00 | 51.2% |
| Indosat | ISAT LJ | RM6,300.00 | RM9,500.00 | 50.8% |
| Genting Bhd | GENT MK | RM8.20 | RM10.40 | 26.8% |
| Citiv Dev | CIT SP | RM8.73 | RM10.36 | 18.7% |
| OCBC | OCBC SP | RM8.45 | RM10.48 | 24.0% |
| Bangkok Dusit | BDMS TB | RM22.80 | RM25.75 | 12.9% |
| Siam Cement | SCC TB | RM512.00 | RM630.00 | 23.0% |
Sell Recommendations
| Company | Ticker | Current Price | Target Price | Potential Downside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hartalega | HART MK | HK$4.26 | HK$3.10 | -27.2% |
Key Assumptions
| Country/Region | GDP (% yoy) 2015 | GDP (% yoy) 2016F | GDP (% yoy) 2017F |
|---|---|---|---|
| US | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.7 |
| Euro Zone | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Japan | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Singapore | 2.0 | 2.2 | 3.2 |
| Malaysia | 5.0 | 4.2 | 5.0 |
| Thailand | 2.8 | 3.2 | 3.6 |
| Indonesia | 4.8 | 5.0 | 5.5 |
| Hong Kong | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.8 |
| China | 6.9 | 6.5 | 6.2 |
| Indicator | 2015 (US$/bbl) | 2016F (US$/bbl) | 2017F (US$/bbl) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent (Average) | 53.60 | 42 | 54 |
| CPO | 2,168 | 2,500 | 2,600 |
Corporate Events
| Event | Venue | Dates |
|---|---|---|
| Geely Auto Group Meeting | Hong Kong | 23 Aug |
| Q Technology Group Luncheon | Hong Kong | 26 Aug |
| China TCM Roadshow | Shanghai | 1 Sep |
| Dawnrays Pharma Roadshow | Shanghai | 1 Sep |
| Q Technology Group Roadshow | Shanghai | 2 Sep |
| Inari Amerton Corporate Roadshow | Taipei | 6 Sep |
| China Power International Roadshow | Shanghai | 7 Sep |
| Frasers Logistics & Industrial Trust Luncheon | Singapore | 7 Sep |
| O-Net Technologies Luncheon | Hong Kong | 8 Sep |
| China Resources Gas Roadshow | Canada | 12 Sep - 16 Sep |
| Skyworth Digital Holdings Group Meeting | Hong Kong | 21 Sep |
| Sembcorp Industries Corp Roadshow | Canada | 26 Sep - 27 Sep |
| Regional Financial and Telco Sector Analyst Presentation | UK/Europe | 26 Sep - 30 Sep |
| Xstep International Holdings Roadshow | Taipei | 7 Oct |
| Metro Pacific Investments Corporate Roadshow | Canada | 26 Oct - 28 Oct |
| Xstep Roadshow | Kuala Lumpur | 15 Nov |
Earnings and Performance
Aviation - China
- 1H16 earnings preview indicates a 20-57% yoy growth in core net profit.
- Air China, CEA, and CSA are expected to show different levels of performance.
- CEA has the highest pax traffic growth and load factor.
- Air China has the lowest operating costs but faces forex losses.
- CSA has weak cargo performance and is expected to report a yoy decline in profit.
Coal - China
- Coal prices rebounded 22% in June and July due to supply-side reforms.
- Prices are expected to retreat in autumn and rebound in winter.
- The sector is currently valued at 0.7x P/B, close to historical troughs.
- Suggest trading strategy due to high volatility.
- We maintain the OVERWEIGHT rating for the sector.
Key Risks
- Coal Sector: Higher-than-expected power demand could lead to higher-than-expected coal price rebounds.
- Supply Control: More stringent policies on production and import control may affect the sector.
Analysts
- K Ajith: Aviation Sector Analyst, Contact: +852 2826 1392, Email: ajith@uobkayhian.com.hk
- Yan Shi: Coal Sector Analyst, Contact: +8621-54057225 ext 804, Email: yan.shi@uobkayhian.com
- David Yang: Real Estate Sector Analyst, Contact: +8621-5404 7225 ext 801, Email: davidyang@uobkayhian.com
Stock Impact and Catalysts
- Aviation: Focus on yields and forex losses. Strong domestic yields and lower fuel costs are positive catalysts.
- Coal: Expected to see a good earnings recovery in 3Q16, which could be a catalyst for price recovery.
- Sino-Ocean Group (3377 HK):
- Core earnings below expectations due to lower GFA delivery.
- Gross margin improved to 24.2% in 1H16.
- Dividend payout ratio increased to 53.1%.
- Stock Pick: Maintain HOLD, with a target price of HK$3.70.
Conclusion
The document highlights the expected performance of key sectors and companies in China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore. It suggests that while some sectors like aviation and coal are showing growth potential, others like real estate and banking are facing challenges. Investors are advised to monitor forex impacts, earnings growth, and policy changes. The overall tone is cautious optimism with specific stock recommendations and target prices.
展开完整摘要
试读结束，高清完整版pdf/doc/ppt,请点下载
