2025年大宗商品市场展望报告（英）_68页_1mb

Commodity Markets Outlook: April 2025

Executive Summary

Commodity prices are expected to fall sharply this year, by about 12 percent overall, due to weakening global economic growth. Next year, prices are projected to decline by another 5 percent, reaching a six-year low. Oil prices will exert substantial downward pressure on the aggregate commodity index in 2025. The price softening is broad-based, with more than half of the 46 commodities in the forecast set to decrease this year, many by more than 10 percent. The latest shocks extend a tumultuous period of high price volatility marked by frequent and sharp swings since 2020. Commodity prices are expected to put downward pressure on global inflation over the next two years.

Commodity Market Developments

Global economic slowdown amid heightened trade tensions and policy uncertainty is the dominant factor driving lower commodity prices. Commodity-specific trade measures continue to proliferate, adding to market volatility and potential supply disruptions. The forecast reflects the emerging consensus on weaker global growth and its direct impact on demand for commodities, with risks tilted to the downside due to potential sharper growth slowdowns or prolonged financial tightening.

Energy

Oil

Prices are expected to decline significantly in 2025 (17% y/y) and 2026 (5% y/y from 2025 levels). Brent oil prices average $64/bbl in 2025 ($60/bbl in 2026). OPEC+ production decisions and geopolitical factors continue to influence prices, with the group's supply policy likely constraining prices despite higher official output. Uncertainty about global growth and potential supply disruptions remain key factors influencing oil markets.

Natural Gas

Prices are projected to rise sharply in 2025 (+6% y/y for European benchmark, +51% for U.S. benchmark). Production is expected to exceed demand growth in 2025, leading to a surplus and lower prices in 2026. Increased LNG exports and geopolitical tensions influence price dynamics.

Coal

Prices are forecast to decline by 27% in 2025. Global coal consumption growth slowed in 2024 and is expected to remain subdued in 2025 amid slowing economic activity and shifting energy policies toward renewables.

Agriculture

The World Bank's agriculture price index is expected to remain broadly unchanged in 2025 (y/y) after declining 7% in 2025Q1. Beverages (especially coffee and cocoa) saw price surges in early 2025 due to supply shortages but prices soften overall. Food prices are projected to decline in 2025 and 2026. Extreme weather continues to pose significant risks to agricultural output and prices.

Metals and Minerals

The metals and minerals price index is projected to fall by 9% in 2025 (y/y) and 3% in 2026. Precious metal prices, particularly gold and silver, are expected to rise significantly due to safe-haven demand amid uncertainty. Base metal prices face downward pressure from weaker industrial demand, while critical mineral prices show resilience amid energy transition demands.

Risks

Downside risks include a sharper-than-expected global growth slowdown, potentially driven by worsening trade relations or prolonged financial tightening. This could depress commodity demand further, especially for industrial products. Upside risks stem from geopolitical tensions worsening (potentially disrupting supplies) or extreme weather events causing agricultural shortages and energy price spikes. Supply disruptions from both trade restrictions and natural events remain significant sources of volatility.

Special Focus: Post-Pandemic Commodity Cycles - A New Era?

Since 2020, commodity price volatility has reached record levels, with shorter, asymmetrical cycles driven by overlapping shocks (pandemic, climate events, geopolitical conflicts) combined with long-term trends like energy transition and geoeconomic fragmentation. Cycle durations have nearly halved (average full cycle length ~45 months vs ~90 months pre-pandemic). Booms have become sharper while slumps have moderated, though remaining persistently longer than booms. This marks a departure from historical patterns, driven by increased market fragmentation and segmented price discovery.