世界银行：2024年10月大宗商品市场展望报告_62页_1mb

Commodity Markets Outlook Summary

Core Content

The World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook for October 2024 provides an analysis of global commodity markets and forecasts for the next two years. It highlights the expected trends in energy, agriculture, metals and minerals, and precious metals, while also addressing risks and special focus topics such as commodity price synchronization.

Main Viewpoints

• Overall Commodity Price Trends:
  Commodity prices are expected to decline by 5% in 2025 and 2% in 2026, following a 3% decrease in 2024. This would bring aggregate commodity prices to their lowest level since 2020, though still 30% above the 2015–19 average.

• Energy Market Outlook:

  • Oil prices are projected to fall from an average of $80/bbl in 2024 to $73/bbl in 2025 and $72/bbl in 2026, marking a 4-year decline from the 2022 peak.
  • Global oil supply is expected to rise to 105 mb/d in 2025, driven by increased production in Brazil, Canada, Guyana, and the U.S..
  • OPEC+ spare capacity remains at around 7% of global production, up from 3.5% in 2017–19, and is a key factor in stabilizing prices.
  • European natural gas prices are expected to fall 18% in 2024 compared to 2023, but increase by 7% in 2025 before declining further in 2026 due to increased supply.
  • U.S. natural gas prices are projected to decline in 2024, but rise sharply in 2025–26 due to increased exports and domestic demand.
  • Coal prices are expected to fall throughout the forecast period due to declining global consumption, led by China.

• Agricultural Market Outlook:

  • Food commodity prices (grains, oils, and other foods) are expected to decline by 4% in 2025, with little change in 2026.
  • Cocoa, coffee, and rice prices have reached historic highs due to weather-related shocks and trade restrictions.
  • Beverage prices are expected to partially recover in the next two years after a 58% surge in 2024.
  • Agricultural raw material prices are projected to remain stable over the forecast period.

• Metals and Minerals Outlook:

  • Base metals (aluminum and copper) are expected to rise slightly in 2025 and soften by 3% in 2026, due to moderate industrial activity growth.
  • Iron ore prices are forecast to decline further in 2025–26, reflecting weaker demand from China and increased supply.
  • Precious metals (gold) are expected to remain elevated, with a 21% increase this year and plateauing at record levels in the coming years. This is driven by central bank demand and geopolitical tensions.

Key Information

• Data Cutoff Date: October 21, 2024.
• Commodity Price Forecasts: The report provides forecasts for 46 commodities.
• Price Forecasts by Commodity:
  • Oil: $80/bbl in 2024, $73/bbl in 2025, $72/bbl in 2026.
  • Natural Gas: Expected to fall in 2024, then rise in 2025, before declining again in 2026.
  • Coal: Decline throughout the forecast period.
  • Base Metals: Slight decline in 2025–2026.
  • Iron Ore: Further decline in 2025–2026.
  • Precious Metals: Plateau at record levels.
  • Food Commodities: Decline by 4% in 2025, with no major change in 2026.
  • Beverages: Partial recovery in 2025–2026.
  • Agricultural Raw Materials: Broadly stable.

Risks to Commodity Prices

Upside Risks

• Escalating conflict in the Middle East: Could drive energy prices higher in 2024, with knock-on effects on other commodities.
• Stronger-than-expected global GDP growth: Especially in China and the U.S., could lead to higher commodity demand.
• Extreme weather events: Could disrupt agricultural production and energy supply, leading to higher prices.

Downside Risks

• Increased oil supply: If OPEC+ unwinds its production cuts, global oil production could surge, leading to lower prices.
• Weaker global industrial activity: Could dampen demand for energy and metals, pressing prices lower.

Special Focus: Commodity Price Synchronization – A New Era?

• The synchronization of commodity price cycles has waned over the past two years, with more idiosyncratic shocks influencing individual markets.
• Geopolitical risk remains a major driver of oil price volatility, particularly in 2024.
• Gold prices have been driven by central bank demand and geopolitical tensions, with no significant decline expected in the coming years.
• Commodity price synchronization may be re-emerging due to shared macroeconomic factors and global shocks, such as climate change and trade fragmentation.

Conclusion

The World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook highlights a mixed outlook for commodity prices in the coming years, with energy prices leading the decline, while gold and agricultural raw materials remain resilient. Geopolitical tensions and supply-side dynamics are key factors shaping the price trajectory, with both upside and downside risks influencing the market outlook. The report underscores the importance of monitoring global economic activity, climate impacts, and policy responses in shaping commodity price movements in the medium term.