2025年世界大宗商品市场展望报告（4月刊）_68页_2mb

Commodity Markets Outlook Summary

Core Content

The Commodity Markets Outlook report, published by the World Bank in April 2025, provides an analysis of current and future trends in global commodity markets. It forecasts a significant decline in commodity prices over the next two years, driven by weakening global economic growth, increased supply, and ongoing trade tensions. The report also highlights the impact of climate change and geopolitical risks on market stability.

Main Viewpoints

• Overall Commodity Price Decline: Commodity prices are expected to fall by 12% in 2025 and an additional 5% in 2026, marking a six-year low.
• Global Economic Slowdown: A slowdown in economic growth is the primary factor affecting commodity demand and prices.
• Trade Tensions and Uncertainty: Trade restrictions and policy uncertainty have intensified, contributing to higher volatility in commodity markets.
• Energy Sector: Energy prices are projected to fall sharply, with oil prices playing a central role. The energy price index is expected to decline by 17% in 2025 and 6% in 2026.
• Oil Market: Oil supply is expected to increase by 1.2 mb/d in 2025, while demand will grow only slightly, leading to a surplus of 0.7 mb/d. The Brent crude oil price is forecast to average $64 per barrel in 2025 and $60 per barrel in 2026.
• Natural Gas: Prices are expected to rise in the U.S. by 51% in 2025, while European prices will increase by 6% and then decline by 9% in 2026.
• Coal Market: Coal prices are projected to fall by 27% in 2025 and soften modestly in 2026, as renewable energy adoption continues to reduce reliance on coal.
• Agricultural Prices: Agricultural prices are expected to soften this year, but beverage prices are projected to rise sharply, offsetting some of the decline.
• Metals and Minerals: Prices for most metals are expected to decline, with iron ore underperforming, falling by 13% in 2025 and 7% in 2026. Tin is an exception, with modest price increases due to supply constraints.
• Precious Metals: Gold and silver prices are expected to rise sharply in 2025, driven by safe-haven demand amid policy uncertainty and financial volatility.

Key Information

• Commodity Price Volatility: The past decade has seen unprecedented volatility, with price swings being more frequent and sharper than in earlier periods.
• Data Cutoff: The data used in the report is cut off as of April 16, 2025.
• Forecast Methodology: The report uses a combination of historical data, current market conditions, and economic indicators to project future prices.
• Risks to Commodity Prices:
  • Downside Risks: A sharper-than-expected slowdown in global growth, prolonged financial tightening, or full unwinding of OPEC+ supply cuts could further depress prices.
  • Upside Risks: Improved trade relations, geopolitical tensions, or extreme weather events could drive prices up.
• Special Focus: The report includes a special focus on post-pandemic commodity cycles, suggesting that the current era may be more turbulent due to a convergence of factors such as trade restrictions, climate change, and policy uncertainty.
• Access: The report and data can be accessed at www.worldbank.org/commodities.
• Contact: For inquiries, contact commodities@worldbank.org.

Commodity Market Developments

• Recent Price Drops: In early April 2025, Brent crude oil dropped by over $12 per barrel, marking the 11th-worst four-day performance since 1990. Copper prices also fell by 11%.
• Trade Policy Impact: The number of trade restrictions on energy, metals, and food commodities has increased tenfold since the pre-pandemic period.
• U.S. Aluminum Premium: The premium for U.S. aluminum surged due to tariff announcements, signaling volatility linked to trade tensions.
• China's Role: China's increased tariffs on U.S. agricultural exports have shifted demand to other suppliers, putting upward pressure on alternative suppliers' prices.
• Electric Vehicles: The growing adoption of EVs in China has contributed to a decline in oil intensity, with over 40% of new cars in 2024 being battery or hybrid vehicles.

Outlook and Implications

• Inflation Impact: Commodity price declines are expected to put downward pressure on global inflation.
• Market Uncertainty: The risk of market disruptions remains elevated due to trade tensions, policy uncertainty, and climate-related shocks.
• Long-Term Trends: Global oil demand is expected to slow long-term, driven by technological changes and economic restructuring.
• Commodity Cycles: The report notes that commodity cycles have become shorter and more volatile, with more frequent price swings.

Conclusion

The report underscores the challenging outlook for commodity markets in the coming years, shaped by a combination of economic, trade, and geopolitical factors. While the central forecast is for declining prices, the uncertainty remains high, with both upside and downside risks influencing the trajectory of commodity markets.