世界银行-大宗商品市场展望-2019.10-94页_8mb

Commodity Markets Outlook Summary

Core Content

The Commodity Markets Outlook report from the World Bank provides a comprehensive analysis of global commodity markets, focusing on energy, agriculture, fertilizers, metals, and precious metals. It highlights the impact of trade tensions, global economic slowdown, and geopolitical events on commodity demand and prices. A Special Focus section explores the role of substitution in commodity demand, emphasizing how innovation and technological changes drive shifts between different commodity groups and within them.

Main Views and Key Information

Commodity Market Developments (Q3 2019)

• Energy prices fell by more than 8% (q/q), with crude oil averaging $60/bbl in 2019 and $58/bbl in 2020.
• Non-energy prices also declined, with metals and minerals prices expected to fall by 5% in 2019 and further in 2020.
• Agricultural prices fell in Q3 2019, with soybean prices rising due to renewed U.S. crop purchases by China.
• Fertilizer prices increased slightly in 2019, but the outlook for 2020 remains uncertain.
• Oil demand growth is expected to slow, with the weakest growth rate since 2012.

Outlook and Risks

• Energy prices are projected to be 15% lower in 2019 compared to 2018, with a further decline expected in 2020.
• Non-energy prices are projected to decline by 5% in 2019 and stabilize in 2020.
• Agricultural prices are expected to stabilize in 2020 following a projected decline in 2019 due to reduced crop plantings.
• Key risks include a larger-than-expected global slowdown, especially in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), and geopolitical events that could disrupt oil supply.

Special Focus: The Role of Substitution in Commodity Demand

• Substitution is a critical factor in commodity demand, driven by innovation, technological change, and price fluctuations.
• Historical evidence shows that demand surges have been accompanied by investment and innovation, which lead to substitution within and across commodity groups.
• Examples of substitution include:
  • Energy: Switching from coal to natural gas.
  • Metals: Replacing tin with aluminum in containers, and copper with aluminum in electricity transmission.
  • Packaging: Using paper and recyclable materials in place of plastic and metal.
• Empirical evidence is provided through the analysis of cross-price elasticity and the impact of geopolitical shocks (e.g., the Saudi Aramco attack).

Key Commodity Groups and Their Trends

• Energy: Crude oil prices are expected to weaken further due to declining demand and sustained OPEC production cuts.
• Agriculture: Prices are expected to stabilize in 2020, but trade tensions and lower energy prices could affect fuel and fertilizer costs.
• Metals and Minerals: Prices are projected to fall in 2019 and 2020, with China's demand being a major driver.
• Precious Metals: Prices are expected to rise, driven by trade tensions and monetary policy easing in advanced economies.

Data and Methodology

• The report includes price indexes for 46 commodities, with forecasts up to 2030.
• Historical data is provided for comparison, showing long-term trends and fluctuations.
• Supply and demand balances are analyzed, with a focus on production, consumption, and trade statistics.
• Cross-price elasticity estimates are used to assess the degree of substitution between commodities.

Supporting Materials

• Figure SF.1 shows commodity prices and consumption over the past two decades.
• Figure SF.2 illustrates broad-based substitution across commodities.
• Figure SF.3 provides own and cross-price elasticity estimates.
• Box SF.1 examines three key episodes of substitution:
  • Beverage can and bottle industries in the 1960s.
  • Oil price shocks in the 1970s.
  • Environmental concerns and the shift to renewable energy and electric vehicles.

Rights and Permissions

• The report is licensed under Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO.
• Users must cite the report as: World Bank Group. 2019. Commodity Markets Outlook, October. World Bank, Washington, DC.
• Translations and adaptations require proper disclaimers.
• Third-party content is not guaranteed to be free of infringement, and users are responsible for ensuring compliance with copyright laws.

Access and Contact

• The report and data are available at: www.worldbank.org/commodities
• For inquiries or correspondence, contact: commodities@worldbank.org

Conclusion

The Commodity Markets Outlook underscores the interconnectedness of commodity markets and the dynamic nature of demand due to substitution effects. It highlights the importance of innovation and technological change in reshaping consumption patterns, while also emphasizing the vulnerability of markets to macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The report serves as a valuable tool for policy-making and market forecasting in EMDEs.