世界银行的最新《大宗商品市场展望》（2023年4月）-58页_2mb

Commodity Markets Outlook Summary

Core Content

This report provides an overview of global commodity market developments and forecasts for the year 2023 and 2024. It highlights the impact of recent geopolitical events, economic conditions, and weather patterns on commodity prices and outlines the implications for affordability and food security.

Main Points

Global Commodity Price Trends

• Global commodity prices fell by 14% in the first quarter of 2023, down to about 30% below their historic peak in June 2022.
• The price surge following the Russian invasion of Ukraine has largely been unwound due to slowing economic activity, favorable winter weather, and reallocation of trade flows.
• Prices are expected to remain broadly unchanged for the rest of 2023 and into 2024, but still above pre-pandemic levels.

Energy Market

• Energy prices fell 20% in the first quarter of 2023 compared to the final quarter of 2022.
• Brent crude oil prices are 35% below their 2022 peak and are forecast to average $84 per barrel in 2023.
• Natural gas prices in Europe dropped by about 80% from their August 2022 peak, but will remain three times higher than the 2015-19 average.
• Coal prices are expected to fall by 42% in 2023 and 23% in 2024, driven by increased supply and reduced demand in other regions.

Agricultural Market

• Agricultural prices remained broadly unchanged between the final quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023, at 14% below their 2022 peak.
• Grain prices fell by 5% in Q1 2023, while other food commodities rose slightly.
• Food prices are expected to fall by 8% in 2023 and 3% in 2024, assuming stable Black Sea exports.
• Real food prices remain at their second-highest levels since 1975, and over 349 million people globally face food insecurity, double the number from 2020.

Fertilizers

• Fertilizer prices reached an all-time high in real terms in 2022, and are still near those levels, despite a projected 37% decline in 2023.
• Fertilizer prices are expected to remain high in real terms, contributing to affordability issues.

Metals and Minerals

• Metals and minerals prices rose 10% in Q1 2023, but are expected to fall by 8% in 2023 and 3% in 2024.
• Precious metals prices are forecast to increase by 6% in 2023, driven by a weak dollar, safe-haven demand, and strong industrial demand.

Key Risks

• Upside risks: Possible supply disruptions, intensifying geopolitical tensions, stronger-than-anticipated Chinese industrial recovery, and adverse weather events.
• Downside risks: Disappointing global growth could lead to lower demand for industrial commodities and reduced prices.

Special Focus: Forecasting Industrial Commodity Prices

• The report reviews 60 studies on forecasting methods for seven industrial commodities (oil and six metals).
• Key findings:
  • Futures prices often lead to large forecast errors.
  • Multivariate time series models tend to outperform other model-based approaches.
  • Early studies suggest machine learning techniques provide better forecasts than some traditional methods.
  • Incorporating price dynamics and economic factors improves forecast accuracy.

Key Commodities and Forecasts

Conclusion

The report emphasizes that while prices have declined from their 2022 peaks, they remain high relative to pre-pandemic levels, posing continued challenges for affordability and food security. Forecasting methods are evolving, with multivariate models and machine learning showing promise. The outlook remains cautiously stable, but with significant risks that could influence future price movements.