2023年大宗商品市场展望报告-世界银行组织_58页_2mb

Commodity Markets Outlook Summary

Core Content

The Commodity Markets Outlook report for April 2023 provides an analysis of global commodity price trends and forecasts for the remainder of 2023 and 2024. It highlights the significant decline in prices since the peak in 2022, driven by various factors including economic slowdown, favorable weather, and trade reallocation. However, prices are still expected to remain above pre-pandemic levels, affecting affordability and food security.

Main Views and Key Information

Global Commodity Price Trends

• Commodity prices fell by 14% in the first quarter of 2023, down to about 30% below their 2022 peak.
• The World Bank commodity price index dropped by 32% from its June 2022 peak, marking the sharpest decline since the start of the pandemic.
• Energy prices declined by 20% in 2023Q1, while non-energy commodities showed more moderate changes.
• Prices for all major commodity groups and about four-fifths of individual commodities remain above the 2015-19 average.

Commodity Market Developments

• Energy:

  • Oil prices fell 35% from their June 2022 record high, with Brent crude oil expected to average $84 per barrel in 2023.
  • Natural gas prices in Europe dropped by 53% in 2023, but are still three times higher than the 2015-19 average.
  • Coal prices are forecast to fall 42% in 2023 and 23% in 2024, due to increased supply and reduced demand.

• Agriculture:

  • Agricultural prices were broadly unchanged from the end of 2022 to the start of 2023, but remain above 2015-19 levels.
  • Grain prices fell 5% in the first quarter of 2023, while most other food commodities rose slightly.
  • Food prices are expected to decline by 8% in 2023 and 3% in 2024, but will still remain at their second-highest levels since 1975.
  • Food insecurity is projected to affect over 349 million people in 2023, double the number in 2020, due to high prices, conflicts, and economic and climate shocks.

• Fertilizers:

  • Fertilizer prices reached an all-time high in real terms in 2022, but are projected to fall by 37% in 2023.
  • Prices remain near the high levels of the 2008-09 food crisis.

• Metals and Minerals:

  • The metals and minerals price index rose 10% in 2023Q1 but is expected to fall by 8% in 2023 and 3% in 2024.
  • Precious metals prices are expected to increase by 6% in 2023 due to a weak dollar, safe-haven demand, and strong industrial demand.

Forecast Outlook

• Commodity prices are expected to remain broadly unchanged over the remainder of 2023 and into 2024.
• Energy prices are forecast to fall by 26% in 2023 and remain unchanged in 2024.
• Non-energy commodity prices are expected to decline by about 10% in 2023 and 3% in 2024.
• Agricultural prices are projected to decline by 7% in 2023 and ease further in 2024.
• Fertilizer prices are expected to fall by 37% in 2023, but will still remain high in real terms.
• Precious metals prices are expected to increase by 6% in 2023.

Key Risks

• Upside risks include:

  • Weaker-than-expected oil supply due to sanctions and OPEC+ production issues.
  • Stronger-than-anticipated recovery in China that could increase demand for energy and metals.
  • Intensifying geopolitical tensions that could disrupt global supply chains.
  • Adverse weather events that could affect crop yields and increase food prices.

• Downside risk includes:

  • Weaker global activity that could lead to a retreat in prices for industrial commodities, particularly energy and metals.

Special Focus: Forecasting Industrial Commodity Prices

• The report evaluates 60 studies on forecasting methods for seven industrial commodities.
• Key findings:
  • Futures prices often lead to large forecast errors.
  • Multivariate time series models tend to outperform other model-based approaches.
  • Machine learning techniques yield better forecasts than some traditional methods.
  • Incorporating commodity price dynamics and controlling for economic factors improves forecast accuracy.

Conclusion

The report underscores that while global commodity prices have declined significantly from their 2022 peak, they remain above pre-pandemic levels, posing ongoing challenges for affordability and food security. The outlook for 2023 and 2024 suggests continued stability, but with potential for price volatility due to a range of economic, geopolitical, and environmental factors.