世界银行：2024年4月大宗商品市场展望报告_52页_2mb

Commodity Markets Outlook Summary (April 2024)

Core Content

The Commodity Markets Outlook report by the World Bank provides a comprehensive analysis of global commodity markets, including energy, agriculture, fertilizers, metals, and precious metals, with a special focus on forecasting industrial commodity prices. The report highlights the interplay of geopolitical tensions, economic activity, and climate change in shaping commodity price trends and forecasts for 2024 and 2025.

Main Views and Key Information

Overall Outlook

• The World Bank commodity price index is expected to decline by 3% in 2024 and 4% in 2025 compared to the previous year.
• Despite this decline, commodity prices are projected to remain about 38% above pre-pandemic levels (2015-19 average).
• Oil prices are set to increase in 2024 by 2%, while gold and copper are forecast to rise by 8% and 5%, respectively.
• Inflationary pressures from high commodity prices are expected to persist, with risks tilted to the upside due to potential conflict escalation and supply disruptions.

Energy Market Outlook

• Energy price index is forecast to decline by 3% in 2024 and 4% in 2025.
• Oil prices are expected to rise this year due to geopolitical tensions and a tight supply-demand balance, with Brent crude averaging $84/bbl in 2024 and $79/bbl in 2025.
• Natural gas prices are projected to fall by 28% in 2024 due to high inventories, but rebound in 2025 as LNG exports increase.
• Coal prices are expected to fall significantly over 2024-25.

Agricultural and Metal Prices

• Agricultural prices are forecast to decline by 6% in 2024 and 4% in 2025, due to increased supplies and a moderation in El Niño conditions.
• Beverage prices are expected to rise sharply in 2024 due to supply constraints, particularly for Robusta coffee and cocoa, but are projected to partially retreat in 2025.
• Fertilizer prices are expected to continue a sharp decline due to falling input costs, especially for natural gas.
• Base metals prices are expected to remain above pre-pandemic levels, driven by global industrial activity and clean energy investments.
• Iron ore prices are projected to decline further due to weaker demand from the property sector, although clean energy demand may provide some support.

Key Risks to Commodity Prices

• Upside risks:
  • Conflict escalation in the Middle East could disrupt energy supply and drive up prices.
  • Lower-than-expected U.S. energy production and weather-related disruptions could also increase price volatility.
• Downside risks:
  • Earlier-than-expected OPEC+ production increases could lower oil prices.
  • Weaker-than-expected global growth could reduce demand for commodities.

Broader Implications

• Inflation and monetary policy: The decline in commodity prices contributed to disinflation in 2023, but the disinflationary tailwinds are essentially over. High commodity prices continue to exert inflationary pressure, potentially delaying monetary easing.
• Food insecurity: Although food price inflation has eased slightly, acute food insecurity remains high, with a 10% increase in 2023. Conflicts and supply disruptions are key drivers of food crises, particularly in Middle East, North Africa, Latin America, South Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa.
• Commodity dependence and volatility: Commodity price volatility remains high, especially in economies with significant reliance on commodity exports. This is due to geopolitical tensions, supply constraints, and climate change impacts.

Special Focus: Forecasting Industrial Commodity Prices

• The report evaluates five forecasting methods for aluminum, copper, and crude oil from 2015Q1 to 2022Q1.
• No single method is superior across all commodities and time horizons. Macroeconomic models tend to be more accurate at longer horizons.
• Judgment and qualitative insights are important in forecasting, especially during unusual or unprecedented events.
• The results emphasize the value of using a range of forecasting approaches to improve accuracy.

Key Data and Projections

Commodity Price Index (Nominal U.S. Dollars, 2010 = 100)

Conclusion

The report underscores the complexity and volatility of global commodity markets, driven by geopolitical tensions, economic activity, and climate change. While some commodities are expected to decline in price over the next two years, others—particularly oil, gold, and copper—will remain elevated. The persistence of high prices relative to pre-pandemic levels indicates that disinflationary pressures are waning, and inflationary risks are increasing. The Special Focus highlights the importance of diverse forecasting methods and the role of judgment in navigating uncertain market conditions.