世界银行-大宗商品市场展望，2021年10月（英）-102页_1mb

Commodity Markets Outlook Summary

Core Content

This report provides an overview of global commodity market developments and outlooks for the period up to 2035. It highlights the impact of urbanization on commodity demand, particularly energy, and discusses the interplay between economic recovery, supply chain issues, and climate change on market dynamics.

Main Viewpoints

• Energy Prices:

  • Energy prices surged in 2021Q3, with crude oil averaging $72/bbl, natural gas and coal prices rising sharply.
  • Natural gas and coal prices are expected to decline in 2022 and 2023 due to easing demand and increasing supply.
  • Crude oil prices are forecast to average $74/bbl in 2022 and drop to $65/bbl in 2023 as production increases and demand stabilizes.

• Non-Energy Prices:

  • Non-energy prices, including agriculture, fertilizers, and metals, remained elevated in 2021Q3.
  • Prices are expected to decline in 2022 and 2023 as supply constraints ease.
  • Agricultural prices are projected to stabilize in 2022 after a 22% increase in 2021, but food insecurity remains a concern in low-income countries.

• Urbanization Impact:

  • Urbanization is a key driver of commodity demand, especially energy and metals.
  • High-density cities, particularly in advanced economies, have lower per capita energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions compared to low-density cities.
  • Strategic urban planning and infrastructure development are crucial to managing the impact of urbanization on commodity use and enhancing urban living conditions.

Key Information

• Market Trends:

  • Energy prices rose sharply in 2021Q3, driven by high demand for electricity and reduced supply from renewable sources.
  • Non-energy prices showed mixed performance, with some commodities like iron ore and precious metals declining due to reduced demand and supply issues.
  • Agricultural prices stabilized, but remained high, with elevated input costs affecting food affordability in several countries.

• Risks and Outlook:

  • Risks to the forecast include adverse weather, supply constraints, and new outbreaks of the pandemic.
  • High commodity prices could slow growth in energy-importing countries and worsen food insecurity in low-income regions.
  • The report emphasizes the need for sustainable energy solutions and reducing dependency on fossil fuels.

• Data and Forecasts:

  • Price forecasts and historical data for 46 commodities are presented, with the World Bank's average price index for oil at $74/bbl in 2022.
  • The report includes detailed supply-demand balances and technical notes on commodity prices.

Special Focus: Urbanization and Commodity Demand

• Urbanization Trends:

  • The global urban population share increased from 37% in 1950 to 56% in 2020, with the sharpest growth in EMDEs.
  • By 2050, the global urban population is expected to reach 68%, with most growth occurring in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa.

• Urbanization and Commodity Demand:

  • Urbanization is associated with higher energy and commodity demand, but high-density cities tend to have lower per capita consumption.
  • Urban areas account for about two-thirds of global energy use and 70% of CO₂ emissions.
  • Urbanization can influence economic growth through agglomeration effects and can also affect commodity demand, such as through changes in agricultural prices influencing rural wages.

• Policy Implications:

  • Strategic urban planning is essential to mitigate the impact of urbanization on resource consumption.
  • High-quality infrastructure, especially in transport, is critical for sustainable urban development.

Figures and Tables

• Figure 1.A: Commodity price indexes showed energy prices rising sharply, while non-energy prices plateaued.
• Figure 1.B: Natural gas and coal prices surged in 2021Q3, reaching all-time highs.
• Figure 1.C: Base metal prices increased, while iron ore prices declined due to reduced steel production in China.
• Figure 1.D: Crude oil prices are expected to rise in 2022 before declining in 2023.
• Figure 1.F: High-density cities have lower per capita energy use and emissions than low-density cities.
• Table 1: Summarizes price indexes and forecast revisions for various commodities, highlighting the projected decline in metal prices and the stabilization of agricultural prices.

Conclusion

The report underscores the complex relationship between urbanization and commodity demand, emphasizing the need for sustainable urban planning and energy transition strategies. It also highlights the ongoing risks to commodity markets from climate change, supply constraints, and global health events.