20251113-国金证券-地方政府债供给及交易跟踪_10年地方债的稳健策略_7页_937kb

Summary of Local Government Bond Supply and Trading Analysis

Primary Supply Rhythm

In the week ending November 7, 2025, local government bonds were issued totaling 916.1 billion yuan. New special bonds accounted for 452.1 billion yuan, primarily funding "普通/项目收益" projects, while refinancing special bonds reached 127.3 billion yuan. Approximately 693 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds were issued in November, making up 15.1% of the monthly issuance. For the 10-year bonds, interest rates decreased by 6 basis points (BP), with a narrowing spread to 13.6 BP compared to benchmark bonds. Longer maturities showed wider spreads. Top regions were Hubei (92.5 billion yuan in 20-year+ bonds with 2.31% average yield), Yunnan, and Fujian.

Secondary Trading Features

In the same week, 7-10 year local bonds outperformed 10-year benchmark bonds and credit bonds by a small margin, with returns of 0.09% and a slight decrease of -0.03% for the longer maturities, respectively. Regionally, Guangdong and Jiangxi saw higher trading activity, while yields for most areas ranged from 1.9% to 2.25%, though some with high excess returns saw declining transaction volumes. Cumulative performance was weaker compared to previous periods.

Risk Assessment

Several risks are noted: potential inaccuracies in data due to varying reporting methods, unexpected policy shifts that could alter bond issuance or pricing, and significant fluctuations in funding markets affecting bond yields and prices.