银行业分析总结（20240721）
核心内容概述
本期（20240715-20240719）银行板块整体上涨 1.10%，在30个中信一级行业中排名 第8位，跑赢Wind全A指数（除金融、石油石化）约 1.00个百分点。板块内国有大行、股份行、城商行、农商行的变动幅度分别为 1.83%、1.15%、0.45%、-0.69%，其中国有大行表现最为突出，获得超额收益。H股银行整体下跌，跌幅较小的为郑州银行（持平）、重庆银行（-0.20%），跌幅较大的为邮储银行（-6.64%）、交通银行（-6.10%）、建设银行（-5.65%）。
主要观点
- 板块表现：银行板块上涨，但H股银行普遍下跌，整体跑输A股银行。
- 个股表现：A股银行中，中国银行、建设银行、农业银行涨幅居前；H股银行中，邮储银行、交通银行、建设银行跌幅较大。
- 北向资金：银行业北向资金持股占比为 2.33%，较上期末减持 2.8bp，浙商银行获得增配。
- 银行转债：本期银行转债平均价格下跌 0.30%，跑赢中证转债 0.93个百分点，常银转债、齐鲁转债跌幅较大。
- 盈利预期：本期有6家银行的24年业绩增速一致预期发生变化，A股银行24年净利润增速、营收增速一致预期环比分别下降 0.02pct、0.04pct。
- 投资建议：宏观经济预期仍偏弱，但财政预算仍有空间。银行股预计会继续受益于政策维稳，建议关注资产质量最优的银行，均衡配置成长、复苏和红利方向。
关键信息
一、板块表现
- 银行板块：本期上涨 1.10%，在中信一级行业中排名 第8。
- H股银行：整体下跌 4.0%，跑输A股银行。
- 估值情况：截至2024年07月19日，银行板块最新市盈率（TTM）为 5.65X，最新市净率为 0.61X，相对估值均处于历史平均水平。
二、个股表现
- A股涨幅前三：中国银行（+2.97%）、建设银行（+2.44%）、农业银行（+2.39%）。
- H股跌幅前三：邮储银行（-6.64%）、交通银行（-6.10%）、建设银行（-5.65%）。
- 换手率：本期银行板块周换手率 1.06%，较前一周上升 0.01个百分点，在30个中信一级行业中排名 第30。
三、基金配置
- Q2主动公募重仓股：银行规模上升，但主要是板块上涨带来的被动增配，实际欠配比例仍在上升。
- 增量资金来源：银行增量资金主要来自于指数基金。
- 图1-4：展示了银行板块及子板块在主要指数中的配置比例变化，显示指数基金对银行的增持趋势。
四、宏观经济与政策预期
- 宏观经济预期：整体偏弱，但财政预算仍有空间。
- 经济底部区间：经济处于底部区间，但持续时间尚待确认。
- 政策维稳：在名义GDP增速和资本市场明显恢复之前，政策维稳预计会继续带来银行股超额收益。
五、资产质量与配置建议
- 资产质量：未来行情关注中期业绩可持续性，资产质量是胜负手。
- 均衡配置：建议区域、股份、大行均选择资产质量最优的银行，对应成长、复苏和红利三个方向的均衡配置。
风险提示
- 经济表现不及预期。
- 金融风险超预期。
- 政策落地不及预期。
- 利率波动超预期，其他非息收入表现不及预期。
图表说明
- 图1：银行板块基金配置比例变化。
- 图2：国有大行板块基金配置比例变化。
- 图3：主要指数资金增持银行规模。
- 图4：主要指数资金增持国有大行规模。
- 图5：银行板块和市场指数表现。
- 图6：银行板块表现复盘。
- 图7：分板块超额收益复盘。
- 图8：银行板块绝对收益情况。
- 图9：公募基金持仓+北向持仓与市场涨跌幅关系。
- 图10：归母净利润TTM同比增速与市场涨跌幅关系。
- 图11：年初以来公募基金持仓+北向持仓与市场涨跌幅关系。
- 图12：年初以来归母净利润TTM同比增速与市场涨跌幅关系。
- 图13：银行板块与Wind全A非金融石油石化指数表现。
- 图14：银行板块与Wind全A非金融石油石化区间换手率。
- 图15：银行板块市盈率。
- 图16：银行板块相对市盈率。
- 图17：银行板块市净率。
- 图18：银行板块相对市净率。
- 图19：银行板块股息率。
- 图20：银行板块相对股息率。
行业数据汇总
表1：中信一级行业涨跌幅情况（周）
| 行业 |
2024/7/19 |
2024/7/12 |
2024/7/5 |
2024/6/28 |
2024/6/21 |
2024/6/14 |
2024/6/7 |
年初以来 |
| 农林牧渔 |
3.79% |
-2.18% |
0.25% |
-2.98% |
-3.23% |
-3.03% |
-2.00% |
-11.17% |
| 食品饮料 |
3.35% |
1.68% |
-1.52% |
-1.52% |
-4.07% |
-2.80% |
-2.31% |
-10.73% |
| 国防军工 |
2.98% |
0.94% |
-3.75% |
-0.67% |
-2.61% |
0.68% |
-1.67% |
-10.67% |
| 非银行金融 |
2.81% |
1.62% |
-1.36% |
-3.36% |
-1.24% |
1.38% |
-2.46% |
-4.97% |
| 电力设备及新能源 |
1.83% |
1.33% |
-2.94% |
-3.01% |
-2.63% |
-0.36% |
-3.94% |
-12.01% |
| 医药 |
1.44% |
0.08% |
0.11% |
-3.27% |
-2.64% |
-0.69% |
-1.75% |
-18.70% |
| 交通运输 |
1.30% |
-0.86% |
-0.21% |
-0.47% |
-0.11% |
-3.46% |
1.61% |
5.97% |
| 银行 |
1.10% |
3.67% |
0.01% |
2.48% |
-0.07% |
-1.88% |
-0.76% |
24.93% |
| 电力及公用事业 |
0.97% |
0.26% |
1.06% |
0.88% |
-1.25% |
-1.10% |
2.26% |
12.52% |
表2：中信一级行业换手率情况（周）
| 行业 |
2024/7/19 |
2024/7/12 |
2024/7/5 |
2024/6/28 |
2024/6/21 |
2024/6/14 |
2024/6/7 |
年初以来 |
| 消费者服务 |
12.28% |
11.06% |
12.22% |
11.44% |
9.47% |
10.06% |
13.98% |
375.80% |
| 电子 |
10.92% |
11.33% |
8.95% |
10.95% |
11.90% |
9.36% |
10.77% |
266.10% |
| 汽车 |
10.12% |
10.68% |
8.55% |
8.29% |
7.35% |
5.06% |
8.28% |
240.08% |
| 计算机 |
9.62% |
11.82% |
11.46% |
11.73% |
11.33% |
7.47% |
10.54% |
324.67% |
| 有色金属 |
7.76% |
8.24% |
6.24% |
5.83% |
6.14% |
5.10% |
8.04% |
219.88% |
| 传媒 |
7.63% |
8.42% |
7.90% |
9.89% |
7.97% |
7.16% |
10.25% |
338.92% |
| 综合 |
7.52% |
6.74% |
7.14% |
7.20% |
6.25% |
4.34% |
9.13% |
214.81% |
| 通信 |
7.02% |
7.75% |
6.79% |
7.56% |
8.26% |
5.85% |
7.93% |
257.38% |
| 商贸零售 |
6.89% |
7.40% |
7.78% |
7.07% |
5.66% |
4.66% |
8.07% |
184.82% |
| 机械 |
6.12% |
7.33% |
6.93% |
7.39% |
7.18% |
5.95% |
8.90% |
251.35% |
| 石油石化 |
5.55% |
5.76% |
5.91% |
5.97% |
7.40% |
7.32% |
8.67% |
203.57% |
| 医药 |
5.21% |
6.37% |
5.64% |
5.29% |
4.95% |
4.27% |
5.75% |
179.18% |
| 基础化工 |
5.20% |
6.51% |
5.30% |
5.99% |
6.69% |
5.75% |
7.68% |
211.14% |
| 国防军工 |
5.06% |
4.97% |
4.49% |
5.37% |
5.63% |
5.25% |
8.01% |
182.52% |
| 家电 |
4.96% |
5.74% |
5.16% |
5.65% |
5.36% |
4.70% |
7.55% |
204.03% |
| 轻工制造 |
4.92% |
5.86% |
5.76% |
5.95% |
5.37% |
4.25% |
6.57% |
205.88% |
| 纺织服装 |
4.81% |
5.16% |
4.86% |
4.75% |
4.08% |
4.09% |
6.57% |
201.27% |
| 建材 |
4.23% |
5.56% |
5.44% |
6.49% |
5.69% |
4.90% |
7.66% |
206.66% |
| 建筑 |
3.95% |
4.61% |
5.11% |
5.28% |
5.00% |
3.70% |
5.49% |
165.89% |
| 综合金融 |
3.82% |
4.84% |
5.34% |
5.72% |
6.38% |
6.05% |
7.03% |
249.07% |
| 食品饮料 |
3.74% |
4.50% |
3.89% |
3.92% |
3.83% |
3.19% |
4.69% |
143.03% |
| 电力及公用事业 |
3.10% |
3.83% |
3.29% |
3.44% |
3.58% |
3.70% |
5.29% |
118.68% |
| 交通运输 |
2.80% |
2.81% |
2.63% |
2.74% |
2.63% |
2.57% |
3.24% |
84.91% |
| 煤炭 |
2.68% |
3.76% |
2.91% |
3.87% |
3.12% |
3.24% |
4.17% |
122.58% |
| 非银行金融 |
2.29% |
2.57% |
2.37% |
2.77% |
2.74% |
2.76% |
3.08% |
101.27% |
| 钢铁 |
2.00% |
2.46% |
2.45% |
2.48% |
2.25% |
2.11% |
3.40% |
91.63% |
| 石油石化 |
1.19% |
1.26% |
1.23% |
1.32% |
1.33% |
1.21% |
1.54% |
46.54% |
| 银行 |
1.06% |
1.05% |
1.12% |
1.05% |
0.93% |
1.00% |
1.09% |
31.27% |
表3：上市银行涨跌幅情况（周）
| 银行 |
2024/7/19 |
2024/7/12 |
2024/7/5 |
2024/6/28 |
2024/6/21 |
2024/6/14 |
2024/6/7 |
年初以来 |
| 中国银行 |
2.97% |
3.02% |
0.22% |
3.36% |
-0.22% |
-1.10% |
2.03% |
23.10% |
| 建设银行 |
2.44% |
2.84% |
2.16% |
2.49% |
1.26% |
-0.97% |
2.27% |
22.34% |
| 农业银行 |
2.39% |
3.14% |
2.29% |
4.06% |
-1.41% |
-0.23% |
2.35% |
36.48% |
| 浦发银行 |
2.38% |
6.00% |
1.34% |
0.73% |
0.37% |
-2.05% |
-0.36% |
36.71% |
| 苏农银行 |
2.32% |
-1.46% |
0.00% |
2.34% |
-0.63% |
-2.87% |
-3.56% |
20.98% |
| 工商银行 |
2.32% |
4.29% |
2.28% |
3.45% |
0.18% |
-0.36% |
1.66% |
30.15% |
| 光大银行 |
2.12% |
2.48% |
1.58% |
2.59% |
-1.59% |
-2.18% |
-0.93% |
16.21% |
| 瑞丰银行 |
2.10% |
1.49% |
-0.42% |
-0.21% |
-2.47% |
-2.61% |
-4.60% |
1.97% |
| 上海银行 |
2.04% |
1.24% |
-0.14% |
3.70% |
-0.13% |
-3.61% |
-0.77% |
33.68% |
| 宁波银行 |
1.78% |
3.13% |
-0.86% |
-0.36% |
-3.15% |
-3.46% |
-4.40% |
14.15% |
| 民生银行 |
1.61% |
3.23% |
1.06% |
1.61% |
-1.06% |
-2.08% |
-1.53% |
7.41% |
| 兴业银行 |
1.48% |
4.49% |
-2.44% |
1.56% |
-0.63% |
-0.40% |
-2.01% |
12.44% |
| 浙商银行 |
1.41% |
1.80% |
0.72% |
4.13% |
-1.75% |
-2.39% |
-1.68% |
20.74% |
| 邮储银行 |
1.22% |
3.04% |
-0.79% |
5.41% |
1.26% |
-5.94% |
0.40% |
20.59% |
| 南京银行 |
0.89% |
1.11% |
-4.23% |
5.27% |
3.46% |
-0.34% |
-2.41% |
45.40% |
| 招商银行 |
0.74% |
6.40% |
-0.91% |
1.45% |
-0.33% |
-0.53% |
-0.85% |
30.53% |
| 长沙银行 |
0.72% |
0.63% |
-2.69% |
3.68% |
-2.71% |
-2.64% |
-3.03% |
18.30% |
| 平安银行 |
0.58% |
3.41% |
-1.77% |
1.50% |
-1.77% |
-0.75% |
-1.08% |
18.32% |
| 交通银行 |
0.40% |
2.94% |
1.47% |
3.61% |
6.03% |
-7.61% |
4.40% |
36.49% |
| 重庆农商行 |
0.39% |
2.57% |
0.60% |
6.92% |
0.81% |
-1.99% |
-2.52% |
34.92% |
| 江苏银行 |
0.38% |
4.41% |
0.81% |
1.23% |
-0.81% |
-0.39% |
-4.23% |
25.10% |
| 招商银行H |
0.47% |
1.85% |
2.09% |
2.03% |
2.03% |
1.63% |
1.72% |
66.91% |
| 工商银行H |
0.72% |
2.20% |
2.45% |
2.32% |
2.42% |
1.26% |
2.35% |
46.40% |
| 中国银行H |
0.59% |
1.51% |
1.25% |
1.35% |
2.10% |
1.56% |
2.12% |
58.15% |
| 郑州银行H |
0.94% |
1.00% |
0.73% |
1.57% |
1.26% |
0.60% |
1.11% |
52.61% |
| 浙商银行H |
0.92% |
0.67% |
1.15% |
0.59% |
0.47% |
0.81% |
0.64% |
27.03% |
| 邮储银行H |
0.85% |
0.62% |
0.98% |
1.44% |
1.17% |
1.08% |
0.85% |
30.56% |
| 建设银行H |
0.72% |
0.81% |
1.16% |
0.76% |
0.79% |
0.60% |
0.82% |
21.52% |
| 民生银行H |
0.69% |
0.83% |
0.84% |
1.47% |
1.32% |
1.05% |
1.13% |
27.04% |
| 中国光大银行H |
0.43% |
0.61% |
0.69% |
0.44% |
0.49% |
0.39% |
0.58% |
15.10% |
| 重庆银行H |
0.31% |
0.38% |
0.76% |
0.65% |
0.54% |
0.52% |
0.68% |
16.35% |
| 交通银行H |
0.30% |
0.29% |
0.28% |
0.45% |
0.36% |
0.35% |
0.44% |
8.86% |
| 青岛银行H |
0.28% |
0.33% |
0.23% |
0.31% |
0.30% |
0.32% |
0.54% |
15.17% |
| 渤海银行H |
0.10% |
0.24% |
0.25% |
-1.04% |
-1.03% |
-3.96% |
1.00% |
-17.70% |
表4：上市银行换手率情况（周）
| 银行 |
2024/7/19 |
2024/7/12 |
2024/7/5 |
2024/6/28 |
2024/6/21 |
2024/6/14 |
2024/6/7 |
年初以来 |
| 苏农银行 |
8.51% |
8.32% |
5.58% |
7.35% |
5.03% |
10.06% |
9.44% |
218.97% |
| 瑞丰银行 |
6.91% |
3.87% |
4.84% |
6.64% |
6.84% |
7.47% |
10.02% |
349.74% |
| 重庆银行 |
6.18% |
3.23% |
3.04% |
2.68% |
2.67% |
5.95% |
3.72% |
104.61% |
| 建设银行 |
5.76% |
6.28% |
5.59% |
4.95% |
5.07% |
3.58% |
5.05% |
137.02% |
| 厦门银行 |
5.19% |
4.94% |
5.16% |
5.24% |
5.63% |
7.19% |
6.85% |
168.43% |
| 张家港行 |
4.89% |
5.01% |
4.87% |
4.75% |
4.45% |
3.96% |
7.26% |
161.68% |
| 江阴银行 |
4.85% |
5.58% |
5.91% |
6.74% |
4.80% |
4.48% |
6.57% |
165.52% |
| 紫金银行 |
4.63% |
5.02% |
5.92% |
4.68% |
4.52% |
3.73% |
7.28% |
184.54% |
| 苏州银行 |
4.44% |
5.06% |
4.52% |
4.85% |
4.38% |
5.97% |
6.69% |
153.52% |
| 兰州银行 |
4.18% |
5.29% |
7.05% |
5.48% |
3.81% |
3.23% |
6.88% |
203.87% |
| 贵阳银行 |
4.03% |
4.09% |
3.82% |
3.66% |
3.01% |
3.69% |
4.42% |
131.05% |
| 青岛银行 |
3.89% |
4.51% |
5.13% |
4.83% |
5.52% |
3.84% |
5.41% |
128.29% |
| 无锡银行 |
3.69% |
4.19% |
5.16% |
3.92% |
3.39% |
3.76% |
4.74% |
139.25% |
| 常熟银行 |
3.51% |
4.93% |
5.17% |
5.29% |
4.95% |
4.27% |
5.75% |
141.72% |
| 郑州银行 |
3.14% |
2.98% |
1.30% |
-3.75% |
1.27% |
0.00% |
-3.14% |
105.33% |
| 重庆农商行 |
2.63% |
2.24% |
2.50% |
2.66% |
2.27% |
1.99% |
1.72% |
57.24% |
| 工商银行H |
1.44% |
2.20% |
2.45% |
2.32% |
2.42% |
1. |
|
|
