20160726-大和证券-Asia_Pacific_Daily_65页_4mb_4mb

报告摘要

Asia Pacific Daily Summary

Core Content

This document is a summary of Daiwa Capital Markets' research and analysis for the Asia Pacific region, covering equity research, investment recommendations, and market performance data for various financial and non-financial companies. It also includes information about upcoming events and key macroeconomic indicators.

Main Points and Key Information

Investment Conference

Daiwa Investment Conference will be held in Hong Kong from 8-11 November 2016.
This is part of a series of Daiwa events, including the Daiwa Pan-Asia Innovative Companies Conference (6-9 September 2016) and the Daiwa Investment Conference Tokyo 2017 (27 February-3 March 2017).

Sector Analysis and Recommendations

China Banks Sector

Rating: Negative
Key Points:
- The "true NPL ratios" for China banks are estimated to range from 6-18%.
- Stress tests suggest that capital raising is unavoidable; an NPL ratio of 18% could put banks in a critical situation.
- BoCom and CMB are recommended as top picks due to their strong capital and provisions.
- Minsheng and CEB are considered the most vulnerable.
- ABC is downgraded to Sell due to declining NIM and provisioning strength.
- BoCom is upgraded to Buy with a target price of HKD6.40 (up 20.8%).
- CEB is downgraded to Underperform with a target price of HKD3.10 (down 10.1%).

Other Key Companies

Bank of Communications (3328 HK): Upgraded to Buy from Outperform.
China Everbright Bank (6818 HK): Downgraded to Underperform from Hold.
Vale Indonesia (INCO IJ): Downgraded to Buy from Reduce.
Axis Bank (AXSB IN): Recommended to Buy.
Raffles Medical Group (RFMD SP): Recommended to Hold.
Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT SP): Recommended to Hold.
Gamuda (GAM MK): Recommended to Buy.
Puradelta Lestari (DMAS IJ): Recommended to Buy.

Market Performance (Regional Indices)

Market	1D Chg (%)	1M Chg (%)	YTD Chg (%)	EPS Growth 16E (%)	EPS Growth 17E (%)	PER 16E (x)	PER 17E (x)
TPX	-0.2	10.0	-14.3	13.4	9.8	13.4	12.2
HSCEI	0.0	5.9	-6.5	-3.4	5.7	6.5	6.1
HSI	0.1	8.6	0.4	-0.7	9.1	10.5	11.5
KOSPI	0.1	4.5	2.6	24.9	8.9	10.9	10.0
TWSE	-0.2	6.1	7.8	-1.0	10.6	13.0	14.2
SENSEX*	1.1	6.4	7.6	13.4	18.2	19.0**	16.1**
FSSTI	-0.5	7.1	1.6	-2.4	4.9	13.3	12.7
FBMKLCI*	0.7	2.1	-1.4	-1.7	8.1	16.5**	15.3**
SET*	0.2	7.0	17.4	7.9	13.3	15.6**	13.8**
PCOMP*	0.3	5.5	15.8	7.4	9.9	20.8**	18.9**
JCI*	0.5	8.0	13.7	7.6	13.4	17.3**	15.3**
AS51	0.6	8.2	4.5	-11.0	6.5	17.2	16.1

Company Roadshows

Incitec Pivot (IPL AU): 26-27 Jul in Tokyo
M1 Ltd (M1 SP): 26-28 Jul in US
HKEI (2638 HK): 27 Jul in HK
Sheng Siong Group (SSG SP): 28 Jul in SG
China Water Affairs (855 HK): 28-29 Jul in Tokyo
CKI / Power Assets (1038 HK/ 6 HK): 1 Aug in HK
Samsung Electronics Co. (005930 KS): 1-5 Aug in US
Nine Dragons Paper (2689 HK): 4 Aug in HK and SG
Xinyi Solar (968 HK): 5 Aug in HK
China State Construction International (3311 HK): 17 Aug in HK and SG
China Suntien (956 HK): 17 Aug in HK
Fufeng Group (546 HK): 18 Aug in HK
Mega Financial Holding (2886 TT): 22 Aug in Tokyo
SITC (1308 HK): 23 Aug in HK
Shenzhen International (2313 HK): 23 Aug in HK
Shopping Centres Australasia (SCP AU): 23 Aug in SG

Daiwa's Key Recommendations

BoCom (3328 HK): Upgraded to Buy, target price HKD6.40, upside ▲23.3%
China Merchants Bank (3968 HK): Maintained Buy, target price HKD22.00, upside ▲29.4%
China Construction Bank (939 HK): Maintained Hold, target price HKD5.30, downside ▼2.6%
China Minsheng Banking Corp (1988 HK): Downgraded to Underperform, target price HKD7.00, downside ▼13.9%
Agricultural Bank of China (1288 HK): Downgraded to Sell, target price HKD2.40, downside ▼15.8%

Key Risks

Faster-than-expected expansion of NPL-asset backed security (NABS) business
New supportive fiscal policy on rural banking
Declining NIM and provisioning strength for ABC

Financial Summary (China Banks)

Metric	2016E (%)	2017E (%)	2018E (%)
Net-interest income	2.5	2.2	2.0
Non-interest income	2.9	2.9	2.9
Total operating income	2.6	2.3	2.2
Total expenses	1.6	3.2	3.3
Pre-provision operating profit	3.3	1.6	1.4
Total provisions	5.1	5.5	3.1
Operating profit after provisions	2.6	0.2	0.7
Net profit (adjusted)	(0.0)	0.2	0.7
EPS (adjusted, FD)	(0.0)	0.2	0.7
Gross loans	9.0	9.0	9.0
Deposits	5.5	5.0	5.0
Total assets	8.7	6.4	6.4
Total liabilities	10.8	10.1	9.9
Shareholders' equity	10.4	9.5	8.7
BVPS (Book Value Per Share)	3.869	4.259	4.651

Key Ratios (China Banks)

Ratio	2016E (%)	2017E (%)	2018E (%)
Tier-1 CAR	10.8	10.7	10.6
Total CAR	13.1	12.7	12.5
NPLs/gross loans	2.8	3.1	3.3
Total loan-loss prov./NPLs	166.7	156.6	152.0
ROAA	1.0	0.9	0.9
ROAE	15.1	13.7	12.6
Net-interest margin	2.4	2.3	2.2
Gross yield	4.2	4.0	3.9
Cost of funds	1.9	1.9	1.9
Net-interest spread	2.2	2.1	2.0
Total cost/total income	41.4	41.7	42.2

Summary

The document provides a comprehensive overview of Daiwa Capital Markets' analysis and recommendations for the Asia Pacific region, with a focus on the China Banks Sector and several individual stocks. It highlights the negative outlook for the sector due to rising NPLs, declining NIM, and capital pressures. BoCom and CMB are highlighted as top picks, while ABC, CEB, and Minsheng are downgraded due to their vulnerability. The Daiwa Investment Conference is scheduled for Hong Kong in November 2016, and other events are listed for the same period. Key financial metrics and ratios for the sector are provided, along with details on roadshows and market indices. The key risks include NABS expansion and fiscal policy changes, which could impact the sector's performance.