2023-10-01-莱坊-Darwin_Residential_Insight_Q3_2023_4页_859kb

Darwin Residential Insight Summary (Q3 2023)

Core Content Overview

Knight Frank's Q3 2023 report provides an in-depth analysis of the residential market in Greater Darwin, highlighting both current performance and future forecasts. The market is characterized by mixed outcomes, with some signs of potential price growth and a balanced rental market.

Sales Performance

• Sales Volume: Increased by 11% in the June 2023 quarter to 472 homes, though annual sales volume was 12% lower than the previous year.
• Days on Market: Decreased from 153 days to 134 days in the June 2023 quarter, indicating improved market activity.
• New Household Loan Commitments: Declined by 76.3% in the June 2023 quarter, reflecting a significant drop in buyer confidence and affordability.
• Established Houses: Despite a 3.9% quarterly decline in sales volume to 219 houses, this was the best performance among major Australian cities, leading to price growth.

Price Performance

• Median House Value: $642,000 at the end of June 2023, with a 1.8% increase in the last quarter.
• Annual Price Change: Median house values decreased by 0.8% over the year to June 2023.
• Median Apartment Value: $361,500 at the end of June 2023, with a 6.5% annual decline.
• Price Forecast:
  • 2023: -2%
  • 2024: +3%
  • 2025: +5%
  • Average (2023–2025): +2%

Rental Performance

• Vacancy Rate: 3.0% in June 2023, down from 2.1% in the previous quarter and 2.0% one year ago.
• Gross Rental Yields:
  • Houses: Increased by 2 bps to 5.86%
  • Apartments: Rose by 29 bps to 7.35%
• Weekly Median Rents:
  • Houses: $650, with an 8.3% annual increase.
  • Apartments: $515, with a 1.0% quarterly decrease but a 7.3% annual increase.
• Rental Forecast:
  • 2023: +2%
  • 2024: +2%
  • 2025: +2%
  • Average (2023–2025): +2%

New Builds

• Building Approvals:
  • Houses: 77 units in the June 2023 quarter, down 11.5% from the previous quarter.
  • Apartments: 5 units, up 25.0% compared to the previous quarter.
• Trend: A decline in house approvals suggests a potential slowdown in new construction, while apartment approvals show an upward trend.

Economic & Demographic Context

• NT Annual Economic Growth: 5.9% in 2022, with a forecast of 3.0% in 2025.
• Unemployment Rate: 3.1% in June 2023, indicating a relatively strong labor market.
• Cash Rate Target: 4.10% in September 2023, with a forecast of 3.4% in 2025.
• Population Growth: 1.8% annual forecast for 2025, with a population estimate of 149,250 in 2022.

Key Drivers Forecast (2021–2025)

Market Outlook

• The residential market is expected to see modest price growth in 2024 and 2025, with a slight decline at the end of 2023.
• The rental market is forecast to remain stable, with a 2% annual increase expected for both 2023 and 2024.
• The balanced rental market is indicated by the recent pause in vacancy growth and rising gross rental yields.

Contact Information

• Residential Research: Michelle Ciesielski
  Email: michelle.ciesielski@au.knightfrank.com
  Phone: +612 9036 6659

• Residential Site Sales: Matthew Knight
  Email: matthew.knight@au.knightfrank.com
  Phone: +618 8982 2502

• Franchise Partnerships: Sally Edvardsen
  Email: sally.edvardsen@au.knightfrank.com
  Phone: +612 9036 6845

• Residential: Erin van Tuil
  Email: erin.vantuil@au.knightfrank.com
  Phone: +612 9036 6699

• Residential Project Sales: Luke Hayes
  Email: luke.hayes@au.knightfrank.com
  Phone: +612 9036 700

• Valuations: Alistair Carpenter
  Email: al.carpenter@au.knightfrank.com
  Phone: +612 9036 62

Supporting Research

• Recent Research: Includes the Australian Residential Review, Adelaide Residential Insight, and the Global House Price Index.
• Wealth Report: Available for further insights into property investment and wealth trends.